Sorry this is late, but check it out: August continued on the path toward slowdown. Though the $1 - 2 million category perked up a bit, every other category generally slowed. I think the real pain in the marketplace will start to emerge later this fall. read
Diane CohnA creative strategist, Diane uses every angle she can to get the best deal possible for her clients. “I know the market. Trends, numbers, what’s happening on the street. I use it all to my client’s advantage,” she says. Diane earned her BA from the University of California and is an accredited ABR, SRES.
Guy JohnsonA successful prior business owner, Guy brings to the table twenty-plus years of exceeding client expectations. “Listening closely to my clients is the most important step to meeting their needs,” he says. A former Chicagoan, Guy earned his MBA from the University of Illinois.
JoAnn CorrieraJoAnn Corriera is one of Reno’s top-producing real estate agents. She credits her take-charge, pioneering spirit and determination to deliver the positive solutions clients are looking for. JoAnn offers the market expertise and marketing skills that generate top results whether clients are buying or selling.
Mike McGonagleAn architect, business owner, and compulsive public records hacker, Mike reads the tea leaves of the local real estate market from a unique perspective. Yet another Chicagoan, Mike earned his MArch from Harvard University.
7 comments
We can summarize briefly: The Reno housing market continues to deteriorate. Sales volume falling, prices falling.
But look at inventory:
In the $300K and under……..8 months of inventory
In the $330K to $500K……….1.2 YEARS of inventory
In the $500K to $1 million….1.8 YEARS of inventory
In the $1-2 million……..1.4 YEARS of inventory
Over $2 million……does anybody really care?
So we have deteriorated to the point where we are now talking about YEARS of inventory in all but the bottom segment.
And, folks, these numbers do not include all the new houses offered by the builders. There are about 95 new housing developments in Reno/Sparks. With hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of new houses for sale all offering incentives out the wazzoo to attract buyers.
Even Diane now says the “real pain” is yet to come.
Just look at these numbers. If one seeks to lock in declining value in Reno, there has never been a better time to buy.
Gotlots: I would make two points:
1) I think the number of new but unsold homes in the builders’ inventory is more accurately measured in the thousands, not hundreds. If each of the 95 or so new developments had only 10 houses for sale, that alone would total 950 houses. Anybody who drives through these new developments can see for themselves that there are quite clearly a lot more than 10 houses for sale at each one.
2) Ms. Cohn points out that only 9% of existing MLS listings currently have a pending offer. When we add to the MLS inventory the thousands of unsold new homes in the builder inventory, the percentage becomes absolutely dismal. It may be as low as 5-6 percent.
As this bubble implodes (or as this “unimaginative metaphor”, as some prefer, implodes) it is going to be ugly. Very ugly.
The “real pain” indeed is still before us.
So if we take into account all existing inventory, both resale and new construction, we are looking at about 1 house in 14, or 1 house in 15, with an offer??
Whatever you all want to call it, it is starting to implode.
And, thanks Diane for the report.
Interesting info and the honesty. When this settles …you are one real estate agent I hope to see still working.
What is interesting to recap on this note…..is that people still are entering the real estate profession at a brisk pace, despite declining home prices. RJG had a great article on it.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060910/BIZ12/609100320/1071/BIZ
Mike: Thanks for the link. I find the interview with David Morris quite interesting. According to him, there are 3,600 real estate agents in Reno; one for every 84 residents.I wonder how many of those 3,600 don’t do much more than send in their dues. He reports that there have been 1.2 sales per agent in Reno since the beginning of the year. But I suspect that the real estate business is like almost every other business, that is, the work is not at all evenly distributed. While it may not follow the old 80/20 rule where 20% of the agents do 80% of the business, I suspect that there are many many of those 3,600 agents who have had no sales at all this year.
only 1 in 14 homes are even worth buying. Lots of garbage out there.