Sane, rational people are finally speaking up on the state of the US housing market. Economists trained in the art and science of market analysis are calling it a necessary correction, that’s all. And they don’t think the media is accurately portraying the situation. read
This from the Northern Nevada Business Weekly: "The State Demographer projects Washoe County’s population will grow by 48 percent in the next 20 years, and Carson City’s will grow by 39 percent. Douglas County is projected to grow by 32 percent, Lyon County by 84 percent and Storey County by 48 percent."
Price reductions = 38
9 comments
I’m speechless! More later.
I read this as a realty connected economist and a mortgage broker related dude blaming the media.
Guess time will just have to tell.
Commissions down?
Yes, of course, it’s the media’s fault.
So, people are projected to basically flood our area. Those are huge increases. and Lord knows why they’d want to move to Fernley and Yerington. (No offense if you live there.)
Where will they come from? Vegas to escape the heat? More evacuees from California? How about the Mid-Westerners tired of manufacturing leaving their towns empty?
I guess Nevada must be the most awesome state to live in if everyone wants to move here. Guess we ain’t doing too bad….
I guess time will tell. Metropolitan population numbers were: 1980-193,623; 1990-254,667; 2000-339,486. Looks like it is possible. 20 years is a long time. I sure would hate to see it happen, but then I’m only planning on living to 150 or 160. LOL!
To use the term market correction for the Reno area is to use a euphemism for the ugly truth. Prices were driven up with no basis. Perhaps five to ten percent could be considered a correction but the market has already given up at least 25%. Those who haven’t done so are still for sale.
I have to agree with the other posters that you have to consider the source of the article and question the motivation. Is the situation sensationalized by the media? Yes. Is it a complete exaggeration? No. I’m tired of hearing the ludicrous justifications for home prices in Reno.
As prices rose over the last five years I would ask realtors and sales personnel at developments to explain the increases. All I would get are condescending answers that amounted to no more than, “This is Reno”. As if the declarative was some sort of an explanation. Is home ownership becoming a privilege of the rich?
“Mass Psychology Often Trails Economic Reality”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1647
I suppose we all have the option of believing the straight story comes from the likes of the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, Bloomberg, Business Week, Investors Daily, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, Finacial Times, Moody’s, the literally dozens of other main stream media outlets,
OR
we can believe the Realty Times, a site bought and paid for by the REIC and an article by Kenneth R. Harney. The same Mr. Harney who is the managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center.
Take your pick as to who has an agenda.
The Northern Nevada Business Weekly is the local version of the pay for play business spin piece. If you google “Business Weekly” you will get the sites for the hundreds of Business Weekly pubications all across the country. They all same the same thing. That is, that the future has never looked better here in Reno, or Las Vegas, or Phoenix, or Atlanta, or Boston, or South Florida, or Northwest Washington, or Portland, or, wherever. You know, great future population demographics, great business and tax climate, great potential.
These are called pay for play because the more you pay to advertise, the more “news coverage” you get.
There has never been an edition of a Business Weekly anywhere that ever suggested anything other than the outlook for business here in __________(fill in name of city) is fabulous.
Diane, do you have the price reduction numbers for the past couple days?
I thought this was interesting:
Housing Correction Just Getting Started
October 17, 2006
Don’t get relaxed about the housing industry, because it’s going to get much, much worse. That’s the message from Gary Gordon at Annaly Capital Management, a firm which invests in mortgage-backed securities. Mr. Gordon is looking for substantial further declines in housing starts and sales, which will result in a recession beginning in 2007.
He is on the pessimistic side of the Great Housing Debate, which will doubtless be reignited when the figure for September housing starts comes out tomorrow.
The optimists took the uptick in home sales in August as a sign of bottoming. They see homebuilders responding aggressively to rising inventories, and cutting prices to quicken the industry’s return to equilibrium.
The fact that the prior three months’ numbers were revised downward muted the celebration. However, bulls were again cheered by last week’s Federal Reserve comments on the economy, and drove the stock market beyond the 2000 highs. Lower gas prices, lower inflation, and a resilient consumer appear to be a heady cocktail for this market, and rightly so.The stalwart American consumer has been defying pessimists for years, not to mention Katrina, $3.00 gas, low wage expansion and rising interest rates.
The real issue is: How much consumer spending has been funded by rising home prices and how vulnerable is the economy to a fall-off in home values? Bears argue that the consumer has used his home ownership as a piggybank that is now ominously empty. They point out that mortgage equity withdrawals have climbed almost without pause since the early 1990s. Today, these borrowings are plummeting, a development that the folks at economics consultancy ISI call “unprecedented.”Equally without precedent is that existing home prices may actually decline this year.
Further gumming up the works is that confidence in rising home prices turned lenders into enthusiastic coconspirators. Mortgage lenders have required less information about borrowers and less regular payments on loans than ever before.
Cont….
http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=41659