Pending status homes in the last 24 hours = 429 at an average $379K and a median $300K. Current number of single family homes offered for sale = 4421. Compare this to September’s random pendings check at 468 for an average $375K and a median $296K with 4692 homes offered for sale. So in this moment, if these pendings close, we have a ten-month supply of homes in our market for the third month in a row. Inventory is coming down, the median is holding and activity is proportionally similar. The market seems to be stabilizing.
These figures were pulled from the Northern Nevada MLS and do not include builder direct sales, for sale by owners or other private transfers. These are single family homes including condos, stick built and manufactured homes pulled from Area 100, the Reno-Sparks metro area. Active listings include actives, new, back on market, price raised and priced reduced. Pending classifications include pending no show, active pending call, active pending loan and active pending house. Pendings were pulled looking at a 24 hour period of time to provide a market snapshot of recent activity.
13 comments
If I see an MLS listing showing a status of “pending”, how do I determine what the actual offer was? Is the asking price automagically changed to the offer price when a property status goes “pending”?
GW, if you see an MLS listing classified as pending or active/pending, the asking price stays the same, no one knows what the accepted offer price is (except the parties in the transaction) and no one knows what the actual sold price is until after the deal closes.
Hi Diane ~
Interesting stats.
Boise listing inventory is down about 1% from its peak, but I view that as inconclusive due to time of year.
Many sellers are simply giving up, pulling their homes off the market, and planning to relist next Spring.
Which raises the possibility of a glut of listing inventory next Spring.
And, our MLS membership has declined by about 1%.
Dues statements went out last week and we will drop more members when they have to pay $365 to play Realtor for another year.
Our board is budgeting for 40% fewer members in 2007 (hooray!).
The not-so-good news is that closings for single-family homes in our county are down 45% from a year ago’s numbers.
We are down (closed units) more than some of the California markets that are supposedly the worst.
There are bargains to be had here; people may look back five years from now and have some pretty good “I cudda bought . . . ” stories.
Hard to gauge, but our downturn seems a little overdone in my opinion.
Nice to hear. This kind of coincides with my database theory. The master NNMLS database has shrunk by more than 2 megabytes in the last three weeks. When you consider the 2 megabytes is ONLY text, and does not include the listing images, that’s a substantial decrease in the amount of listings in the database.
From the IDX version of the MLS as linked on Diane’s blog:
In all of Reno and Sparks, for SFR only (not condos), here is how it breaks down by price category:
$900K to $1 million…..79 listings. 5 pendings. 6.3% of listings with an offer. That is 1.3 YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$800K to $900K…..115 listings. 5 pendings. 4.3%. That is 1.9 YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$700K to $800K …..145 listings. 4 pendings. 2.75%. That is THREE YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$600K to $700K ….199 listings. 15 pendings. 7.5% That is 1.1 YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$500K to $600K ….364 listings. 14 pendings. 3.8%. That is 2.1 YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$400K to $500K ….716 listings. 31 pendings. 4.3% That is 1.9 YEARS OF INVENTORY.
$300K to $400K …..1079 listings. 86 pendings. 7.9% That is 1 YEAR OF INVENTORY.
$200K to $300K …..893 listings. 122 pendings. That is 7.3 MONTHS OF INVENTORY.
Yes the number of listings is dropping here,as it is all over the country. Many sellers are just giving up, as Phil describes in his market also.
But dwindling inventory alone does not herald an improving market. The listings:pendings ratio is getting worse. Except for the very bottom, which is now BELOW $300K, and dropping, there is more than a YEAR of inventory in every price segment.
Just hope you are not trying to sell a house in the $700K to $800K range. If not one other house were to come on the market in that price range, the next President of the U.S. will be one year into his term when the last house finally gets sold in 2009.
In the $400K to $500K range, if not one other house were to come on the market, the last house would finally sell right around Election Day in 2008.
And, of course, these MLS numbers do not include the now thousands of unsold new houses in Reno. Add those houses into the mix, and, well, you all can figure out where this market is.
Better move now! “No better time to lock in to …”
New home prices plunge
Sales jumped 5.3 percent in September but builders slashed prices nearly 10 percent to move out unsold homes.
October 26 2006: 10:19 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Sales of new homes posted a surprising increase in September, although that may have been fueled by deep price cuts by builders struggling under a glut of unsold homes.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/26/news/economy/newhomes/index.htm?postversion=2006102610
Reno was listed in this CNN/Money report as “Where not to buy”
That new house sales figure has become something of an industry joke. It is based upon signed contracts only, not actual closed sales. It does not take into account subsequent cancellations.
For ten months in a row, the figure has subsequently been revised downward once cancellations are factored in. The initial figure always gets the press; the subsequent downward revision gets ignored.
Did you see where the Wall Street Journal today ran a story about the deteriorating real estate market nationally and included Reno in the same paragraph as Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Florida.
Is Reno attaining some sort of bubble market prominence?
The article predicts that prices in Reno will drop at least 10%. Obviously, the writer does not read this blog, or he would know we have already blown by the 10% decline mark.
Let me make a prediction: The Boston Red Sox will win the 2004 World series.
Moody’s listed Reno No. 2 in the country for markets that will go down the most.
So maybe Reno is ascending to some kind of national bubble prominence.
Over the last several months homebuilders have been spewing the same line. Sure things are going down in other parts of the country, but this is Reno. The housing market here is still strong. Blah, blah, blah. Translate, please buy a house so I can make the lease payment on my BMW. Well, those days are over. No longer can homebuilders have the attitude that they can just sell their overpriced houses to the worthy Californians and ignore the locals but will now have to contend with local buyers with their local pay.
MARKET DETERIORATION UPDATE
Some people say I pick on Somersett. OK, let’s look elsewhere.
Let’s look at MLS 60024751. 6848 Cinnamon in Spanish Springs. This the house that Diane blogged about on October 8.
This house sold on 5/5/05 for $595,000.
It was listed October 7, 2006, or three weeks ago, for $480,000.
Now reduced to $460,000.
That is a $135,000 drop in value in 17 months. This house has been losing value at the rate of $8,000 a month since it was sold in May of ‘05.
And it will only get worse from here.
Yes indeed, bring in all the bank economists and all high gloss spin rags and all the quotations from the Northern Nevada Business Weekly and all the other yada yada.
6848 Cinnamon in Spanish Springs. Losing $8 grand a month for 17 months in a row, and counting.
What other conclusion is there? If one seeks to lock in declining value in a house in Reno, there has never been a better time to buy.
I smell a flip gone bad. MLS#60025524
Listed at $598,000 paid $625,675. California owner.