Pending status homes in the last 24 hours = 351 at an average $376K
and a median $297K. Current number of single family homes offered for
sale = 3506. Compare this to December’s random pendings check at 339
for an average $400K and a median $297K with 3769 homes offered for
sale. So in this moment, if these pendings close, we have a ten-month supply of homes, down from eleven. Despite a rash of so-called new listings that came on the market in January, we still have slightly fewer homes for sale and an uptick in contracts pending this month.
These figures were pulled from the Northern Nevada MLS and do
not include builder direct sales, for sale by owners or other private
transfers. These are single family homes including condos, stick built
and manufactured homes pulled from Area 100, the Reno-Sparks metro
area. Active listings include actives, new, back on market, price
raised and priced reduced. Pending classifications include pending no
show, active pending call, active pending loan and active pending
house. Pendings were pulled looking at a 24 hour period of time to
provide a market snapshot of recent activity.
4 comments
I was on the Nevada Real Estate Division website this morning for other purposes and decided to click on the Real Estate License Statistics.
There are 3,225 active Brokers, Broker-Salespesrons and Salespersons. I then read Ms. Cohn’s blog which says there are 3,506 houses for sale on the MLS. There is almost 1 realtor for every house on the market.
I wonder how this affects home prices. Do realtors advise clients to list houses higher to make a bigger profit on fewer sales?
According to Diane, this is how many sales actually closed escrow in the past seven months:
June……..494
July …….441
August …..422
September …429
October …..440
November ….316
December ….351
The average number of closed deals over the past 7 months has been 413 per month.
Lets say there are 413 closed deals this month.
Let’s say there are 2 agents to each deal (not always true of course).Lets say the median sales price is $300K. Lets say the average commission is 5.5%. So 826 agents split a $16,500 commission per deal. So 826 agents make $8,250 this month, and 2,400 agents make nothing.
Now if every month it was a different 826 agents, it would take about four months for the whole pool of 3,225 agents to turn over, and everybody make a payday. So every agent would make about $8,200 three times a year. Or about $25,000 for the year.
But we all know it is not randomly distributed. If the 80/20 rule is in effect, then 20% of the agents make 80% of the deals, and a few agents are making pretty good money and a whole lot of agents would do better off working at Wal-Mart.
Do you know what percentage of sales are failing to close escrow? I have two family members who have had sales fall through, mostly due to financing issues. It will be interesting to see, as more and more of the subprime lenders close shop (more than twenty in the past month), how it affects sales. My guess, is that both median price and sales quantity will be affected dramatically. Also, I would love to know, of these pending sales, the average DOM and the selling price as a percentage of listing price. I think there have been some significant reductions in prices, as well as more realistic listing prices. I am now seeing some homes on the market for under $180 square foot in nice areas. It does seem that the market is busy at the moment, but prices are definitely dropping. Assuming 10 months of inventory in the dead of winter, I think we will be well over a years worth in the next few months.
BanteringBear:
There already is more than 10 months inventory in essentially every price segment of the market except that below $300K.
The reality is that the inventory is properly measured in YEARS as we move up the price ranges from below $300K.
Diane furnishes monthly info about the ratio of sales price:listing price, which tends to hold at about 97%. But that figure misses all the price reductions that may have occured. The interesting figure would be the ratio of sales price to ORIGINAL listing price. This info is available to those with access to the closed MLS, but it is not made available for public consumption.
As far as the DOM figure, Diane also provides that fugure. But this number is fairly bogus since large numbers of realtors manipulate this number by pulling off stale listings and bringing them back as “new” a few days later.