Okay, once you get past the hilarious YouTube videos promoting the value of real estate agents in Canada, scroll down a couple of entries to see where the Grand Sierra is advertising these days. Yep, that’s right, Vancouver.
And yes, I’ve been hoarding links again… here are some of the most interesting submitted by our readers:
An Elk Grove Mortgage Scam leads to lower values and higher foreclosure rates.
That auction the other week over on Driscoll must not have worked out too well because here it is again, but apparently Lennar is having better success with this method.
Another crash and burn, literally.
And here’s a nice piece confronting all the common rationalizations people use to downplay the current downturn.
Now that some of our equity ATMs may be empty, here are the top ten ways to enjoy Lake Tahoe on the cheap.
But, hey, despite all this, Reno made another good list!
Your freebie for the day? These nice, first quarter sales charts comparing 2006 to 2007 from our friends over at Ticor Title. download pdf
And these delectable tidbits were submitted by one of our most industrious readers out there, all found on the internet via public sources, I might add:
"- Hard foreclosure notices in the RGJ seem to be
ticking up, averaging at least 2 per day.
- There are a lot of properties listed out there
at magically 7% over what the owners’ have into them. I sense some folks
are dipping their big toes into the steaming lava pit of reality.
Probably too little too late. And a lot of denial from the unwashed
(2005) masses. Some more cut-and-runs showing up.
- About 95% of the out of area sellers are from CA,
but they only account for about 10% or less of what is hitting the
market. Not a single
- Don’t blame the Californians completely for the run
up in prices. I have not run into a single case where they own more that
1 property here. The real culprits are home grown. I have at least
10 of Reno’s
best who have bought 3 -7 "primary" residences during the run
up. These are not newbies to the scene — they have real estate track
records back into the 90’s and should have known better.
- Somersett may be a construction wasteland right now,
but I had to go up to Spanish Springs today and things are flying there.
Not as hot as before, but the Biggies are moving ahead with their
projects. Lennar is no fool from what I
have seen. The NAR ought to consult Lennar’s economists!"
Okay, so things may still be challenging. But at least NAR doesn’t have these problems… Or, does it?
16 comments
The saving grace for Spanish Springs, and why I believe it hasn’t suffered the same fate as Sommersett, is the massive amount of retail going in out there. You have Costco, Best Buy, a Trader Joe’s going in, there’s a Kohls, a Home Depot, etc. It’s kind of becoming its own little city.
However, that being said, a seemingly honest representative from Reyen and Bartis told my best friend, who bought a home from them in Starcrest Village, that the reason they are finishing up their projects is 1. To avoid lawsuits from current homeowners in those projects over half-finished construction sites left standing 2. To have inventory on stand-by when the market does pick back up, but that sales are extremely slow right now. Speaking of Reyen and Bartis, anyone hear about a lawsuit involving Montreux, R&B and McMansion(s) that didn’t get rebar placed in its concrete slab foundation(s)? Was that just one home or the entire development?
I do agree that it’s not Californians only. I know two old Reno families holding the bag right now on multiple homes.
I don’t blame Californians at all for the run-up in prices. This was a perfect storm involving many, many participants. From the FED, to lenders, to appraisers, to realtors, to mortgage brokers, to speculators, to first time buyers, to sellers, and on and on and on. If any one party is most responsible, it’s the lenders.
A quick thanks to Diane and Guy. I appreciate the hard work on the blog. For a couple of realtors, you guys are keeping it real! If anyone can make it during these lean times, it’s you. IMO, at the rate things are moving, I don’t see a bottom until 2009-2010. If hyperinflation kicks in, that’ll moderate some losses, and kick savers like me in the unmentionables. Keep up the good work!
A few months ago I commented that I took a Friday afternoon drive through Spanish Springs and the new developments looked like a ghost town. Blocks of built out vacant houses and half-built houses and no more than 2-3 man workcrews. Thanks for validating my observations. Be careful, Mike Van H, comments like this might get you labeled a hostile pessimist.
As far as local speculators, there is a well-known state legislator who is now an Official Somersett Bagholder. Bought this “primary” residence (gag) with a Voodoo loan intending to flip it off. Timed the top of the party pefectly. Now one of the 50% of Somersett listings that are vacant. Now tens of thousands of dollars upside down.
THE TRUE BELIEVER
The homegrown speculation has been incredible. I am tracking a local owner (a real estate “professional”) who has bought 12 new houses since the beginning of January 2005 and refinanced 4 additional properties he already owned. One of the properties has been sold, and 7 are currently listed on the MLS. The listings are all 10-20% over the original purchase price, some higher. The one sale was bought for 331K and sold for 340 K - whoopie. Excluding the refi’s, he bought $6,200,000 worth of property during this period, the last one in February 2006. One of the purchases was from another family that I currently show holding 7 properties. Incest is a game the whole family can play!
Wow GreenNV is that a common thing? You would think realtors would be a little more privy to market conditions than ‘homegrown speculators’, especially when it’s real estate agents whom the speculators rely on for advice sometimes.
Diane, just saw you agent profile video for the first time. Ha! That looked like it would be fun to make. You are such a sophisti-cat it’s not even funny. You go girl!
Speaking of links and tidbits did you guys see this? http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EARNS_TOLL_BROTHERS?SITE=NVREN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Ouch that has to hurt. nearly 80% profit loss in one quarter? wow. Not a good time to build $500,000+ homes, I guess.
some good information on home sale, certainly bodes well for a faster recovery. 2010 bantering bear? you have truly lost it lol. that being said read on folks.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070524/wall_street.html?.v=61
while home prices did continue to drop we saw the largest surge in home sales in april in 14 YEARS. I guess someone is buying!
RE: “While home prices did continue to drop we saw the largest surge in home sales in april in 14 YEARS. I guess someone is buying!”
Uhhh … “continue to drop?”
It was the largest drop *ever*! 11% in one month. And that doesn’t account for incentives.
And before you get too excited about the sales volume, remember that:
1. That article has the *estimated* volume (remember that last month’s estimate was eventually revised *down* by more than 20%)
2. The April 2007 estimated volume is still 10.9% below last April’s volume.
You might want to recork that champagne.
I hate to be a downer Derrick, cuz you know how I am the proverbial optimist, but I read that the national increase was due to the only region in the country that made gains, which was the Northeast…and that the West, South, Southeast and Midwest all saw their percentage of home sales fall.
“It was the largest drop *ever*! 11% in one month. And that doesn’t account for incentives…You might want to recork that champagne.”
Exactly. Not the kind of news that real estate bulls were hoping for. I’m not sure why Derrick is exulting, but I don’t think he is either. Prices are continuing to erode.
I think you need to re-read the article. that being said. Last I checked nobody was celebrating! Just a piece of news I thought I would share with the blog. dont get all worked up now!
GreenNV:
That is one fabulous comment!
Now I understand that if the median price is down 15% that does not mean every house in every neighborhood is down 15% in value. Some houses in some neighborhoods are down less than 15% in value; other houses in other neighborhoods are down more than 15% in value. But if we assume that all of this local flipper’s houses are down, on average 15%, his $6.2 million “investment” is now worth $5.2 million. You can’t lose money investing in houses in Reno, right?
Do you think he disclosed that all of these houses were for investment, and not his primary residence? Certainly there was no mortgage fraud here, right?
I doubt anyone is uncorking champagne exactly. just some infor I wanted to share with the board. calm down
Actually, the new homes sales monthly spinjive has lost most of its credibility by now. Every month, the new homebuilders announce that new homes “sales” are X. Then, about three months later, they acknowledge that the real figure has turned out be X minus about 30%-35%. This is because the “sales” are not really sales. They are contracts signed, often with little more than a modest deposit.
This happens every month on the national level, and it happens here in Reno also. This is how the developers of new projects announce “our first phase has sold out”. It is spinjive, beacuse all that has really happened is that a bunch of modest deposits have been taken. The developers never say much about the subsequent cancellations.
SF Chronicle picks up the 60 Minutes 6% torch:
http://tinyurl.com/38omy8