I realize that September isn’t quite over yet, but with only three days remaining I believe the bulk of the listings are in for this month. Below is a table showing the number of residential listings by month for Reno Sparks. [I chose to begin with July 2005 for no other reason than that is the month when the median home price for Reno Sparks peaked.]
| Month | # Listings |
|---|---|
| July 2005 | 1385 |
| Aug 2005 | 1615 |
| Sept 2005 | 1453 |
| Oct 2005 | 1300 |
| Nov 2005 | 1043 |
| Dec 2005 | 643 |
| Jan 2006 | 1200 |
| Feb 2006 | 1233 |
| Mar 2006 | 1463 |
| April 2006 | 1491 |
| May 2006 | 1935 |
| June 2006 | 1925 |
| July 2006 | 1652 |
| Aug 2006 | 1532 |
| Sept 2006 | 1212 |
| Oct 2006 | 1046 |
| Nov 2006 | 860 |
| Dec 2006 | 541 |
| Jan 2007 | 1267 |
| Feb 2007 | 976 |
| Mar 2007 | 1183 |
| April 2007 | 1303 |
| May 2007 | 1373 |
| June 2007 | 1308 |
| July 2007 | 1200 |
| Aug 2007 | 1214 |
| Sept 2007 | 683 |
Check out September’s numbers. 683 listings represent a 44% decrease from August. Now before anyone brings up “seasonality”, let’s look at historical August-September decreases.
| Year | Aug-Sept ? |
|---|---|
| 2002 | -16% |
| 2003 | -16% |
| 2004 | +02% |
| 2005 | -10% |
| 2006 | -21% |
2004 actually saw an increase in listings September over August. Anyway, adjusting this year’s 48% decrease by an (arbitrary) 16% seasonality correction, still leaves 28% unaccounted for.
What’s going on? Have prospective Sellers really thrown in the towel and given up attempting to sell? Has December come early this year?
I suspect the real reason for the seemingly dramatic drop in listings for September is the recent policy change1 invoked by our MLS. Now that agents can no longer simply take a property off market and immediately relist it under a new MLS #, the reported number of listings will provide a more accurate account of the market. This is all very good and I am happy to see the new policy working.
1 As of September 1st, 2007, agents must now wait at least 30 days before relisting a property with a status of NEW; otherwise face a $250 fine. See NNRMLS policy here.
Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS - September 2007.
8 comments
I am on the technology committee for our MLS and we will migrate to Paragon 4 next month with a similar policy.
It will be nice to have some transparency with the cumulative days on market capability.
How ya doin?
Of course you are correct, Guy. I observe that the total number of listings on the MLS is not moving significantly. So if “new” listings are down by half, why is the total inventory not moving downward? We all know the answer of course. All one has to do now is simply review the MLS and see the greatly reduced number of “new” listings and the greatly increased number of “extended” listings. Listings that used to be falsely described as “new” are now more correctly described as “extended”. This is a very good change in the direction of accuracy (and integrity). In the coming months we will also now observe that listings that have been on the MLS for 11 months will no longer appear as 65 DOM, since the miraculous ressurection of the dead will no longer be common occurence on the MLS.
I’m not convinced those 635 “new” listings are really new. But let’s say they are. How many sales are there going to be in September? Let’s say 335, which is probably high. So 635 new listings come on the MLS, and 335 go off. September is going to see a net gain of 300 listings on the MLS? If that’s true, this market is vapor locking up faster than even I thought. I’m just not convinced all the deceptive practices have yet been wrung out of the MLS.
It will be interesting to see Guy’s September figures for total sales, and total inventory and compare them to recent months. As usual, something does not quite add up with the lies, otherwise known as MLS statistics, that are provided to the public.
When going to buy or sell a home, your first step should be finding a honest and hard-working realtor.
When going to buy or sell a home, your first step should be finding an honest and hard-working realtor. You can find a real estate agent by keeping an eye out for advertisements, calling your local real estate broker, or through the internet.
The role of a real estate agent is to represent your best interests in a real estate transaction. They work off of a commission, normally 6% of the sales price of the home. In most cases, that commission is split equally between the realtor representing the buyer and the realtor representing the seller. For a person buying a home, the service of the real estate agent is free, because commission is paid by the seller. The buyer, however, is responsible for most of the closing costs. The closing costs will be explained to you by your realtor and will be on the documents you sign when you go to the title company. Closing costs can also be negotiated on during the contract process.
The real estate agent, through their broker, has access to all of the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) listed homes in your area of interest. If you are a home buyer, the realtor can provide you with information about homes for sale that meet your criteria. They will then bring you to these homes and let you inside to see them. If you are selling a home, the realtor will list your home in the MLS, post a “For Sale” sign in your yard, and hold open houses to attract buyers. Be wary of discount realtors that offer to list your home for a lower commission. Studies show that, in most cases, your home will stay on the market longer and you end up selling it for a lower price than what you intended.
A real estate transaction is a complicated process that involves many steps and is best done with the help of a trained, licensed professional. A realtor can save you the headache of dealing with the other party in the sale, getting together the contract, and submitting all the documents to the title company. So when you are ready to buy or sell a house, contact the local real estate agent.
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So the number of new listings might be lacking but what is the number of listing currently on the market? I bet it is still really high. The numbers of sold per month just dont add up to the number of listed. I also noticed that the number of “extended” listings has increased dramatically.
On at least the Prudential web site, it still looks like you can bump your listing without relisting on the MLS. 720 Hill Lane, MLS#70017225 (a Chase listing) relists daily with a bogus MSL number, and goes to the front of the pack. Slick.
For you REO buffs, I just found out that the Assessor tracks bank foreclosures. On their site, click “Sales Information” and then “Bank Foreclosures” on the next screen. It is in Excel format and you can sort by building type, date, date built, etc. Double slick!
Geee And what was I saying about standing inventory last month>?
cheers
Wouldn’t the MLS and agents both profit from lower “houses on the market” and “new listings” numbers? Wouldn’t it appear that homes are more scarce, and therefore more valuable?