Jaded produced the chart below and forwarded to me to share with the readers of the Reno Realty Blog. Jaded spent a considerable amount of time compiling data from a number of disparate sources to construct the chart. In addition to tracking the MLS numbers on which Diane and I report monthly, Jaded has scoured the Washoe County Assessor’s site, title records and other sources. Though the actual units reported differ depending on the source, the trends observed are consistent. As always, excellent work, Jaded. - Guy
Everyone tracks sales figures slightly differently, so the trend lines are really all you can read. And Diane, Guy, TICOR and I show amazingly similar patterns.
My Monthly Sales chart below (click on chart to enlarge) is an attempt to track the SFR sales in the Washoe market. SFR on the chart = Guy x .86 to factor out condo sales. OK, so Chicken Little has learned his lesson and my predicted 25% decline didn’t show up. August, though not 100% reported yet, is a huge surprise . So far, 492 total SFR sales, 156 builder sales - up 11% over July.
Here’s a bit of what I think:
- FSBO/IV (FSBO, Incline, the rest of Washoe, TD’s and direct sales) was averaging about 14% of total sales in early 2006. (FSBO/IV = Assessor - SFR - BLDR). I feel pretty confident that the components of FSBO/IV represent a fairly constant percentage of the total. By mid 2007, the FSBO/IV total is averaging around 7%. I think the delta is that about 6-7% of new homes are being sold on the MLS.
- The Assessor’s sales number also jumped 11% in August from July, and the change seems to be almost entirely in the FSBO/IV category (Guy’s decrease in sales is pretty well balance by the BLDR’s increase in sales). I can’t put a finger on any component of FSBO/IV that would change that dramatically, except that actual for sale by owner sales are increasing a lot, as well as the increase in TD’s.
- People managed to scramble and close, even with the loan mess. September will be interesting!
Anyway, those are my musings on a Friday morning. Have a great weekend.
- Jaded
tags: Washoe County, NV
[where: 89505]
20 comments
So FSBO sales are increasing. Interesting in light of the recent disappearing post and attendant comments about how sellers don’t want to pay that 6%.
So do I correctly understand then that Guy’s monthly median price report only inlcudes houses sold by realtors that participate in the MLS?
Question:
Are these FSBO sales included in the median sales number that Guy provides every month?
The builder sales are not included, except for that small number of builder houses that are listed on the MLS.
Do we really know what the median price is, then, for all houses sold in Reno-Sparks?
We don’t, do we?
R.I.,
The MLS sales numbers I report monthly do not include FSBOs or new construction…unless the builder has listed the property on the MLS and it has sold through the MLS. It’s just that the majority of new home construction is not listed on the MLS…yet.
Also, the monthly sales numbers I report include only SFR (”Site/Stick Built” and “condo/townhouses”). I exclude “manufactured housing”. However, Diane’s monthly sales figures do include Manufactured/Modular numbers, which accounts for the discrepancy between Diane’s and my numbers. [FYI, manufactured/modular sales have accounted for 7% of the total sales reported on the MLS for each of the last two months.]
First, I want to correct a factual error in my post. Trustee’s Deeds are NOT included in anyone’s sales figures, and certainly not within my FSBO catagory. I had that figured out, and just spaced. FYI, TD’s were 78 in July and 72 in August.
Some of you hard-core folks out there might like so see the actual numbers that generated the chart. I’ve posted the data at http://www.filefactory.com/file/171d84 Double click on the chart, and the data field should open up. It was created in Word, so calculations on some of the values were done manually (FSBO/IV, %FSBO). The %FSBO is interesting, and doesn’t show up on the chart, so take a look at the numbers.
The methodology to get the BLDR monthly sales involves sorting the Assessor’s sale data to SFR, sorting built date to within 3 years of the current sale date, and looking at who the former owner was. I have to guess about 5% of the time if it is a resale or a new sale, and I know I miss some spec houses built by private parties. But if I’m missing, I’m missing consistantly with the same methodology, so the trends should be the same.
Hope you find some of this interesting.
Consider this:
Just today, September 14, the following new listings appeared on the MLS:
1. MLS # 70008788
2101 Highview Ct. BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PROPERTY
2. MLS # 70019377
967 Damoa BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PROPERTY
3. MLS 70019333
567 Smithridge Dr. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
4. MLS # 70019483
6265 Mohave Ct. BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PEOPERTY
5. MLS # 70019303
1575 Shadow Ln. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
6. MLS # 70019439
1005 Camino Real Dr. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
6. MLS # 70019327
251 Bartness Blvd. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
7. MLS # 70019340
59 MarlyaMae Dr. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
8. MLS # 70012490
1760 Fairfield BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PROPERTY
9. MLS # 70019431
5940 Still Meadow Dr. BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PROPERTY
10. MLS # 70009116
5516 Vista Terrace Ln. SHORT SALE LENDER APPROVAL REQUIRED
11. MLS # 70019482
11780 Anthem St. BANK OWNED FORECLOSED PROPERTY
These are just for one day. And there are 3 or 4 others that may be short sales or foreclosures, being sold “as is” without the transfer tax being imposed, that are not identified as such.
“Yesterday’s sales meeting included an impromptu conversation on short sales and foreclosures. Even though they’re generally not common in this market…”
Diane Cohn
Reno Realty Blog
December 6, 2006
It is so interesting to watch the worm turn in this housing market meltdown. You all ought to go back and read the archived posts from last December. There’s an article from the RGJ saying the bottom is at hand. Another article quoting the President of the NNMLS that the worse is over. Yes, watching the market deteriorate is like watching paint dry if you watch it day by day. But to go back 9 months and observe from there is quite informative.
Only if we had the archives from last summer when Gotlots, the Prophet, ended all his posts with the the admonition that if one wanted to lock in declining value on a house in Reno, there was never a better time to buy.
“FSBO sellers typically sell their homes for 24% less than agent assisted sales…”
Diane Cohn
Reno Realty Blog
January 31, 2007
Hmmm. Now don’t we really wish we had a way to calculate the median price in light of all the FSBO sales reported by Jaded. The only conclusion seems to be that the real median, which includes FSBO sellers, must be lower than the MLS median, which leaves out all the FSBOs.
Looks like I will be dipping into my funds in the next year or 2. Despite all the doom and gloom posts that the ussuall suspects have been posting over and over (come up with some new material its really getting old). I have noticed some pretty nice deals out there. I figure in about 18 months We will be looking to buy in the same area we live now (spanish springs south) since we love it here so much.
Perhaps we will contact you diane to show us around!
I wish we were all as smart as you Reno ignoramous.. Besides talking about how bad RE is Which by the way WE ALL ALREADY KNOW! including the bagger at albertson’s. Why dont you try contributing something else to the blog. We are all bored of your broken record comments.
Derrick wrote: “We are all bored of your [RI’s] broken record comments.”
Sorry Derrick; we’re not ALL bored. What I don’t understand is what exactly you meant by your statement: “looks like I will be dipping into my funds in the next year or 2?” It couldn’t have anything to do with upgrading your living situation in Spanish Springs South given you went on to state that: “IN ABOUT 18 MONTHS we will be looking to buy in the same area we live now.”
Were you referring to the increase in your mortgage payment now that your savvy adjustable rate loan[s] are about to reset?
If so, might I recommend you talk to our mortgage friend “Jeff?” By all indications, the Fed is going to lower the discount rate by about 1/4% next Tuesday and likely another 1/4% again in October. If you have your loan application in place, you might even be able to take advantage of these two interest rate dips to lock in a fixed rate refi.
Better yet, why don’t you use some of your funds to buy high grade corporate bonds which are almost guaranteed to increase in value in a very short period of time?
So is it official? At 4:00 am on 9/15/07 derrick calls the bottom as 18 months from now?
Spanish Springs South, derrick’s self-described land of opportunity, is showing 246 listings on the MLS. Who knows how many FSBOs. There are 11 pending offers. There are 12 price reductions. That is a sorry 4.4% of the listings with an offer. And 7 of those are “pending-loan” so they are problematic.
Please don’t speak for all of here derrick when telling other posters what we want to read. I actually found the posts to be informative. At least 11 short sales/foreclosures listed in ONE DAY is hardly boring news.
I submit that it’s quite obvious, given the hour of his recent posts, that Derrick is drunk blogging. It explains why his incoherent ramblings, littered with grammatical errors, are virtually impossible to understand. His rear view mirror diatribe (Mr. Ishortbuilderstocks) is nothing but a pathetically weak, yet desperate attempt to garner attention and praise.
While his song and dance is tired and boring (I tend to pass over most of his posts), it does make for some high comedy at times. Consider the hypocrisy, and outright absurdity, when this dolt calls Lindie trailer trash. Seriously, an uneducated flipper saying that to an obviously well-educated scientist! Hah!
Not so surprisingly, a past search of Mr. Ishortbuilderstocks’ property records revealed ownership of a TRAILER in a Moana Lane trailer park. Hmmmmmm.
There is a certain well-known realtor at a certain well-known real estate office that puts out a quarterly report on sales activity at Caughlin Ranch. I get this report because it is where I live in my singlewide. In her report she says “It’s not a pretty picture” referring to the current market. She says that less than 1 listed house out of 10 is selling in Reno and estimates that sales volume is back to 2001 levels.
Let’s face it. This is old news to many posters on this blog. Anybody could have understand that by reading here over the last year. This blog has become, perhaps, the most accurate and timely source of info on the Reno market. It is at least a year ahead of the RGJ.
Speaking of which, have you all noticed that the RGJ has not run a story about the local market in quite a while? I think the local REIC, and its advertising dollars, have leaned on the RGJ. So rather than print any more absurd stories quoting the local NNMLS President telling us prices are set to return to 10% annual gains any day now, the RGJ has just gone silent.
Sorry Smarten I own my house free and clear with no mortgage, but thanks for the advice!
“It should also be noted that the ‘under 300K’ inventory number is not even applicable to Somersett, as there are currently no homes listed at that price point in Somersett.”
Guy Johnson
Reno Realty Blog
March 18, 2007
This was Guy’s somewhat irritated response to Lindie, when Lindie suggested that Somersett was a bursting bubble.
What a difference 6 months makes. Today, there are 8 listings in Somersett below $300K. The below $300K segment is, in fact, the largest expanding segment of the market in Somersett.
Seems a lot of the posters on this board did not get “Plays Well With Others” checked on their report cards.
Reno Ignoramous, Sierra Canyon retirement community (active adult, yeh right, active speculator) accounts for 7 of your 8 below $300,000 listings. True Somersett residents try to ignore the presence of the Raisin Ranch. Granny driving 6 miles to Scolari’s for the evening hootch and back is a bit scary. The 8th is a REO at the Village.
But meanwhile back at the ranch….
If sales are being double counted between the MLS and the Builders, doesn’t this mean the MLS numbers are being inflated? By a significant amount?
Clue me in.
RE: “Do we really know what the median price is, then, for all houses sold in Reno-Sparks?”
Download the Washoe County sales data from the Assessor’s website and process. Doesn’t that data include all recorded sales?
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/assessor/
Doofus:
You are correct that most of the below $300K listings in Somersett are from Sierra Canyon. The point of my postings in this thread has been that a housing market meltdown does not happen quickly, and it easy to miss the slow erosion day by day. But if we step back 7 or 8 months and observe what was being posted on this blog, we can see clearly how the markert is deteriorating.
Raisin Ranch. Ok, I’ll give you a big congrats for that one. I’m still laughing.
Hey Doofus, speaking of Raisin Ranch, aka Sierra Canyon, have you noticed the horserace that is developing bewteen 9125 Heritage and 9147 Mount Pleasant to be the first to go below $200K? Mount Pleasant has made serious strides in the race to the bottom by dropping more than $20K in just the past couple weeks. Mount Pleasant is realtor owned and so in handicappping this one I give the advantage to Mt. Pleasant in a come from behind finish.
I think I should build you an online house so you can live here reno ignoramous.. Oh wait you already do lmfao.
Try getitng out of the apartment more often lol
I enjoy the comments from RI and others. The school marm lectures with the poor spelling and typos …not so much.