Our corporate broker just published her very first blog post over at Chase Nation. She covered the quarterly stats from around Lake Tahoe and Reno, and let’s just say there were some downward happenings in several major categories. Tragically, there isn’t a single comment so far. Come on, you guys, you know you can’t resist. Go over there and say something.
Okay, you will have to register with the NY Times to see this one, but Be it Ever So Illogical: Homeowners Who Won’t Cut the Price is well worth the price of admission. I think Reno Ignoramus and Perry both sent me this one.
The Inman Blog published an interesting piece updating us on the latest from the Federal Reserve. Titled Straight From the Horse’s Mouth, apparently were in more than just a tiny little downturn, and no, the media is not making this up.
Trulia introduced a cool new feature to their site that integrates Google Street View. A great tool for consumers looking at real estate from afar, in cities where this has been implemented you can literally walk the streets without having to put on a red dress and see the neighborhood virtually. I’ve already started lobbying them to come to Reno with this one, but it may be awhile.
And what would a realty linkfest be without a little sunshine from the Housing Bubble Blog?
Thanks to Incline Jim for this video: Mr Mortgage Exposes Wells Fargo Toxic Waste.
And RI sent these: Big Condo Project Lenders in Las Vegas at Risk and State Budget Suffers Due to Reduced Tax Revenues.
Brian Kaiser’s latest local market report.
29 comments
Well, this cinches it!
I always knew we were nearing the end of the world, but we are obviously THERE!
Diane in the midst of this all this bad news, I see that the red barn continues to languish at $800K and the Caughlin house has now become a “commercial opportunity.” The Kool-Aid well must still be flowing on both these properties.
Are we approaching about 500 DOM for the Caughlin house?
Phil, yeah… so have a drink on me, k?
SkrapGuy, thanks for noticing. The Barn is on the verge of a major breakthrough, and the ranch, well, we’re still working that one. Don’t you think it would make a charming events center for the entire community?
Well, it’s official. Chase Nation has lost any remaining remnant of credibility it may have had. This afternoon, a Chase agent quoted Lawrence Yun, the Chief Spindoctor of the NAR, and successor to David Lereah, as an expert opining that the bottom is here.
I’m sorry, I just can’t accept that site as anything credible. Every third rate realtor spinsite in the country quotes Lawrence Yun of the NAR for proof that the bottom is here and there has never been a better time to buy. Nowhere is there a more bought and paid for “expert” than Mr. Yun. The site is just shuck and jive. Sorry, Diane.
Rather than Sue Lowe’s first post ever on ChaseNation, I would refer your readers to Craig King’s [Bottom Fishing Won’t Be Around Much Longer].
Craig urges the lemmings to convince their clients to purchase now becaue if they wait, they will have missed the bottom [presumably in pricing].
This guy’s so out to lunch [sorry Diane, I realize he’s your office broker], I couldn’t resist the urge to respond and suggest guys follow suit. Here’s a link to the post: http://www.chasenation.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2000642%3ABlogPost%3A4766
Mr. King is the guy who cites Lawrence Yun. It’s like saying that the President of the National Barbers Association says there has never been a better time to get a haircut.
Mr. Yun has called the bottom of the market every month for the last year, and continues to call the bottom every month moving forward.
IMHO, the reliance on Mr. Yun casts serious doubt on the integrity, or the competence, of anybody who cites him as an expert. Either such person knows Mr. Yun is a shill, in which case holding him out as an expert is disengenous. Or, such person does not know Mr. Yun is a shill, in which case such person lacks knowledge and understanding of the industry.
You guys are so going to get me fired.
I bet GreenNV would put on a red dress and walk the streets… who begs to differ?
Diane said, “You guys are so going to get me fired.” But Diane, you specifically ASKED that we “go over there [to ChaseNation] and say something.”
Insofar as SkrapGuy’s observation that Mr. King “knows Mr. Yun is a shill, in which case holding him out as an expert is disengenous. Or, [he] does not know Mr. Yun is a shill, in which case such person lacks knowledge and understanding of the industry.”
I vote for the latter!
I intend no disrespect to Mr. King personally. But, really, how can anybody not know Mr. Yun is widely regarded as nothing more than a shill for the NAR? There is even a website called the Lawrence Yun Watch that chronicles all of his silly statements. And really, Mr. Yun has called the bottom in each of the last 12 months.
Geeez… It sounds like the days of buying real estate WITHOUT a realtor aren’t all that far off !?!?
Seriously, isn’t it time we look out for OUR best interest? Sure we have our fair share of respectful and honest realtors.. However, is it just me or are most of them always claiming “the deal of a lifetime!”,” Won’t last long!”, or my personal ALL TIME FAVORITE. “seller is VERY motivated”… ohh what a good chuckle..
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Folks the bottom is already here! All you have to do is do your research. I understand 75% of the homes for sale are not “priced right”. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a rather nice selection of home that are priced “below real value”.. what is Real value? I would consider Real value as what people were paying in 2001-2002 inflation adjusted ofcourse (a realistic 5%/year)
Thats to say a home that sold for 300k in Dec. 01′, should sell for 420K. I see plenty of these Homes already on the market. Alot more people will take 15% less for their home than you might think.. maybe even 20% for others.
What’s the avg size of a SFM in reno? 200k-500k? Whats moving and at what price per sq/ft? Is it just me or is $100-120sq/ft the magic number? No house is the same ofcourse certain upgrades do add the the price sq/ft.
Derrick, if 75% of the homes for sale are not priced right, how is that the bottom then? Sorry, 25% of the homes priced right (according to your figures) does not equal the bottom. Besides, the bottom of what?
I have a feeling that just because homes reach some magical point that is ‘the bottom’ doesn’t mean hordes of people will suddenly come out of the woodworks cheering with checks in-hand ready to buy homes.
Consumer confidence is at all all-time low, retail sales are slumping big time, the the mood of the country sucks.
I read a great article saying there are areas in this country that actually didn’t see double-digit increases in the values of their homes like the West, Reno, and parts of the East did, and those real estate markets are suffering with slower-than-normal sales. So even if prices do hit this magical bottom, that doesn’t mean everything is hunky dory and people will suddenly have money to go out and purchase homes.
Derrick, you say that you see plenty of homes on the market that are ‘correctly priced’ and adjusted for inflation from ‘01 pricing. That’s great, wonderful. So why aren’t they selling then? Right, because it’s going to take more than the right price in this economy to sell a home. It’s going to take the buyers actually having the money to buy it.
You need to be carefull in determing what a bottom is. If comparable homes that are selling are starting to sell for more, then a bottom may well have been reached.
Now with a decrease in demand and a high inventory, economics 101 will say that prices should fall more.
BUT!
There are rock bottom prices where it makes no sense for people to sell below and they might as well just sit on the house and let some poor realator holding with a listing there is no hope in selling. I don’t understant why, but a house down the street is back up for sale, after taking the winter off. These guys are delusional in there price, but it is obvious to me they are in no hurry to sell. Why bother? is my question to both the seller and the realator.
Of course we have the banks now holding property, this has got to have an effect on prices. How much of a hair cut will they take to get the problem off the books. I have a friend trying to do a short sale for his home, and what I feel is they are not as desparate as many seem to think.
There seems to be a log jam now, banks are holding too much property, and no longer have the balance sheets to loan more which in turn raises loan rates which further reduces demand.
There will be a bottom, but I cannot beleive we have reached it yet. It is just too soon.
A huge part of the demand for real estate here is gone. The investor has left reno. Retiree’s are still comming, but they also are taking longer to retire. The demand for the 300K+ homes is just not there, as the JOBS here really do not support a city full of million dollar homes.
The market here is not typical of areas across the contry.
OK I may have been stating the obvious.
I’ve joined ChasteNation, and I’m just dumbfounded. Is the oxygen level really that much lower up at lake level that it stunts mental acuity? I just can’t get my fingers to post a reply - pearls before swine.
DERRICK, how about “Seller will review all offers”? DUH. And I agree with you that a growing number of properties are hitting “bottom”, particularly on the low end. Not quite a movement yet, but quickly gaining momentum. Get ready for the South Meadows Massacre.
Mike, Actually homes priced in the 2001 ballpark ARE moving faster than anything other price-point.
that was just my point Green. While we may not be at an ABSOLUTE BOTTOM. The bottom is already here in certain circumstances.
The homes currently selling at 2001 inflation adjusted dollar will set the bar for future home sale, and an overall steady median home price for reno.
Ofcourse prices may come down a little more! thats why I said 75% are still overpriced. Which brings me back to the remaining 25% (its possible that number could be a little less). These homes will be selling for what the other 20-25% is selling for RIGHT NOW.
I took Diane up on her offer and responded to her Mr. Feel Good broker’s post [supported by Mr. Yun’s analysis] on ChaseNation that proclaimed the market has just about hit bottom and soon it will be too late for [we] bottom feeders to jump in. I criticized Mr. King’s spin and questioned his logic [such as the Reno/Sparks market is going to take off because the FHA conforming loan amount was recently increased to $403,250 (notwithstanding the fact the comparable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rates have been at $417K for over a year)].
Notwithstanding the fact my post did not violate any of the site’s guidelines; and without prior [or subsequent] notice; my response was quietly “removed.” If these people aren’t going to allow others to challenge their facts and logic, then the site has little value to me. Many of you have independently come to the same conclusion for other reasons.
Just thought I’d share my experience with the group.
What a NATION!
Smarten, if you were censored, I had nothing to do with it and don’t support it. If dissenting opinions are quietly removed, then meaningful conversation will never occur, and RI’s worst predictions will come true. Maybe I need to be fired…
I see that Smarten’s post has been removed. That is unfortunate, but predictable. As I have said above, Chase Nation strikes me as nothing more than being yet one more of the all too common realtor spinjive sites that exist all over the country. That is why I did not even sign up. There are, quite literally, hundreds, if not thousands of these sites. To say they are a dime a dozen overestimates their value.
Chase Nation does not exist to promote genuine discussion about the local market. It exists to spin out hype and jive.
I am sure that Diane believed that Ms. Chase and her other colleagues there were going to allow for the robust debate and discussion that has existed on this blog for the past 2.5 years. She was wrong, but then we all know that Diane (and Guy) are indeed set apart from their “say anything to make a deal” colleagues.
I don’t know what has become of Lindie, but her biggest complaint about the industry was it’s relentless willingness to spin out any story to create a false sense of urgency to buy a property. Chase Nation seems to stand for everything she loathed.
That’s weird. I can see it, along with Mr. King’s response to it. Hopefully it isn’t just a cache related delay. It’s a fine post and some time and thought obviously went into it.
The post is gone. What a scummy site that chase nation is. Kind of like dealing with used car dealers over there.
I signed up to respond to Sue Lowes outrageous post. I then read that Smartens post was removed so I reneged, and will not even bother to visit that site ever again. I was skeptical from the beginning which is why I didn’t rush over there.
A few years back, I posted to a site called Active Rain, and they did the same thing - removed ALL of my posts. Scummy is an appropriate description of those sites. After reading a few posts over at Chase Cult, I would include stupid as well.
Both of BB’s posts are still there and now there is post directly confirming that they’re there. Can you guys still not see them?
Hey, I’m not from around Reno, so pehaps they’re only invisible to the locals! (FWIW I’ve always been able to see them).
Smarten, did you have 2 posts or 3? I’ve always been able to see 2.
From what I’ve read, you are being very professional in your posts (still, more than the Happy Camper Club is used to hearing!). When someone posts a comment on ChasteNation (or this site) the original poster gets an email confirmation. One line below the option to read the comment is the option to delete it (report as spam is one line below that). If in fact one of your comments was deleted, it was probably an innocent mistake by a newbie learning to use the system. New bloggers are so giddy just getting a reply that they wouldn’t intentionally delete a comment (I think).
Thanks M -
Three posts, not two. The second post you see complains about deletion of my first post.
And no I don’t buy your explanation that Mr. King deleted my post innocently by mistake. Don’t you think that after the deletion was called to his attention [if he didn’t realize it immediately], he’d send an e-mail of apology?
Mr. King’s job is to rally the troops. Anything that characterizes the glass as half empty, is counter-productive to his efforts. I guess I’m viewed as negative on the market, even though we know I’m not [I’m just negative on the market’s delusionally priced sellers].
In any event, it is what it is and the fact ChaseNation allows my last post to remain probably sends more of a message.
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