I want to sincerely thank Diane and Guy for inviting me to join the blog, but you guys out there scare me to death! I know the business and have the proven performance to say that, but there is just something odd about getting beaten up by people who don’t really know me or how I work. I’ve had the opportunity to respond back to several of you during the last few weeks, so I hope you know that I’m on the ball in responding and finding the correct information for you. Oh, one more thing – that “Stepford Wife” photo? If you ever do meet me in person, what you see in the photo is not what you get. One thing about Chase: it doesn’t matter what your age is, we all look 25. I’ll work on building up enough courage for my next blog and surprise you soon!
23 comments
*evil laugh*
Just kidding.
A different perspective on real estate is always welcome.
Welcome aboard JoAnn.
Hi JoAnn. If you are going to blog here, you might want to grow some thick skin, especially if aren’t aboard the “doomsday bandwagon”. Definitely more of a “bubble blog” than a real estate investing blog.
“In the $200K-$350K range, now is definately the time to buy. You aern’t going to get it any cheaper than that.”
Welcome, Joanne.
I would narrow the range to between $200K and $300K, since 70% of all sales now are under $300K. About 20% of all sales are now under $200,000. 1 out of 5 already are getting it cheaper than $200,000.
With thousands of REOs about to hit the market in the next several months, what would you say suggests that prices have no further room to decline?
Welcome, JoAnn.
Hello JoAnn. Hmmm. After watching the video, I’m already starting to miss Diane. I’m sorry, but I’m just getting a little bit too much “shill” if you catch my drift. If you’ve been in real estate for a whole 12 years, then what part of “market value” are you misunderstanding? Houses don’t sell “below market value”. The sale price IS market value. Let’s get that straight right now.
Secondly, I was unaware that you’re a clairvoyant. Congratulations! Unfortunately your proclamation that those homes selling “below market value” which “won’t get any cheaper” is delusional. As the higher end moves lower, the lower end is crushed into oblivion. Got it? Good. That concludes our first lesson, I mean meeting. I look forward to our future encounters.
Come on BB; give JoAnn a pass for at least…
The weekend!
BTW, I disagree with your observation “houses don’t sell ‘below market value’ [because] the sale[s] price IS market value.” Although in a vacuum I think your statement is accurate, few of us live in a vacuum. Anytime a seller “could” have gotten more than he/she did [maybe by accepting the first offer too soon], the buyer has purchased “below market value.” Anytime the buyer can turn around and resell for more than his/her purchase price, he/she has purchased “below market value.” So whenever you see double escrows, if the second sale IS market value what do you call the first sale only moments before?
And just look at foreclosure sales [I’m talking about those at the courthouse steps]. Generally bidders [other than beneficiaries] WON’T bid unless below market value.
Anyhow, just my two cents.
Welcome JoAnn. You will quickly discover that this blog has an extremely sensitive realtor BS detector. A lot of the kool-aid talk that circulates around realtor offices usually has a half life around here equal to that of lithium. Just as long as you never say that you can’t ever lose money buying a house in Reno, or that Reno is special, or that it’s different here, you will be ok. Oh, and don’t ever cite Lawerence Yun as an expert on anything. Just ask Guy about when he was a rookie here and he cited David Lereah for the proposition that the market would turn around in 2007.
So again welcome.
Now, are you calling the bottom of the market at the low end? Saying “you aern’t going to get it any cheaper than that” sure sounds like it. If $200K marks the bottom, what do you make of the nearly 20% of sales now being under $200K?
Smarten, I’d call it a new market price. If a stock (or oil future since that seems popular) lists for X one day and Y the next you have two sales at two market prices. You don’t have a sale at the market price and one below or above.
As far as buying for less than a seller might have gotten from someone else, or for that matter buying for more than a smidgen more than a seller might have gotten from someone else, the difference is called a market imperfection or friction. It should even out over time and doesn’t really affect market prices.
Having said that, I think what Joanne may be saying is something along these lines: in real estate you have a lag between the date a contract is written and when the property changes hands. Contracts written today may not close for 30, 60 or more days from now. In a declining market, which she is obviously describing, sales which are now closing — the market price — may overstate the price you’d see the contract written at today.
I don’t however see how anyone could be confident that the current prices are as low as they are going to go. There are a lot of uncertainties in the market including the likelihood that interest rates are going up. I can’t see prices not going down more if interest rates go up as quickly as many expect. I’m also surprised at how much rising gas prices seem to have unnerved a lot of people, even those who might be in the market for second expensive homes.
The high gas price is putting pressure on people’s disposable income. A lot of small businesses are not doing very well these days - at least here in Sparks. My neighbour own a air quality control business. Nowadays he has to take a part-time supermarket job to supplement his income. There are definitely less patrons at the local restaurants. Even my hair dress complains about less customers.
Of course, these are just anecdotal evidences. The point is that if the oil price sustains the current high, it could trigger a real recession in the non-energy producing states, for example CA and NV. One can only imagine what that would do to the local economy, and the housing market.
Every realtor in Reno should be forced to blog here, so that they can have the propaganda yanked out of them by BB, followed by RI and SkrapGuy stomping it into the dust. Keep up the good work, fellas.
Anyone who comes on this web site and pretends to know short-term pricing action in any market, including real estate, just cannot be taken seriously.
With JoAnn, it’s too soon to tell but she’s not off to a good start. Her initial video piece reeked of “shill” to me as well. The statement that prices in the 200-350K sector aren’t going to get cheaper and that they’re “dirt cheap” is pure salesmanship and opinion, not factual. And her opinion is based on a sample size of only 6.
Realtors, brokers, and salespeople often try to talk-up the market no matter how bad it really is; Diane is an exception, which is why her blog gets consistent viewership and participation. We appreciate the honesty on this blog, hopefully it does not go away with Diane moving to Marin.
Smarten:
We could argue until the cows come home about “below market value” and we’ll never agree. When you talk about “could have gotten more”, that’s pure fantasy. Until a house closes escrow, there is no sale. There is no guarantee that those “could have gotten more’s” would have closed escrow. The very reason it didn’t happen, is because the market didn’t allow for it.
Furthermore, home prices are in constant change. Whether the differentiation in price is so small as to be insignificant or so large as to be an anomaly, they are always in flux. And, as Don Cooper so accurately pointed out, there are always going to be market imperfections.
As far as foreclosures sold on the courthouse steps, the price paid IS the market value for those homes, because that is the marketplace for those specific homes. If those homes are subsequently sold for a higher price, that is the new market price, which as I previously stated, is in constant flux. The same goes for double escrows which, IMO, are oftentimes fraudulent and deceptive.
Just as there is no “below market”, there is no “above market” either. While the hyper inflated prices of yesteryear were clearly not sustainable, that was the market value at the time due to the obvious reasons stated on this blog over the years.
JoAnn’s comment that prices “aren’t going to get any cheaper” sounds like the ol’ ‘you better buy now or get priced out forever.’
That kind of realtor jive is all too common in a trade built on hype and spin. I also hope the uncommon honesty that has been the hallmark of this blog does not end. But I’m willing to give JoAnn a mulligan here. Remember she is coming from a place where realtors trade in the kool-aid all day, and she may need a bit of time to adjust to the no kool-aid zone this blog is.
Welcome JoAnn. I follow this blog regularly from San Francisco. I just love it!!!! Im a BIg fan of Reno and would prefer Reno over Las Vegas living anyday. Im hoping that all the development will continue despite the bad economy. Rock on Reno!!!!!!!! Looking forward to buying my new home there next year.
Welcome aboard, JoAnn. As you’ve seen, our frequent commenters do not mince words. But don’t let them scare you off. Many new contributors to this blog have posted once (or twice); received the feedback from our more vocal commenters; and then have never posted again. Don’t become a “whatever happened to JoAnn”.
Stick with it and you’ll find it can be fun.
I love it! I can’t wait to buy my next house in 6 months. Coming from the bay area, these prices are getting better by the day!! Keep it up Reno!
Hi JoAnn. I’ve never posted here. I just read, learn, and look forward to the day when I can move back to northern Nevada. I have no credibility with any of you. This is just my 2 cents worth, from afar. Take it or leave it.
You started this thread on a very defensive note. In my humble marketing opinion that’s not the way to inspire trust and build a relationship with this group. The main guys here, as far as I know that would be Diane, Guy and Mike, present data and open it up for analysis and debate. So far I havn’t heard anyone touting their years of experience and “proven performance” (what a painful RE agent cliche’), and asking to be spared. Consider, instead, inviting everyone’s brutal honesty and criticism and I believe you’ll have clients lined up at the door.
Your video…uh, you might want to just quietly take it down. Really, when I hear something like ‘hey buyers, it’s time to buy!’ And then ‘hey sellers, get in here and list!’….again, painful for the viewer. The head shot, format and general look were not at all flattering. If you want to manipulate me, then do it indirectly. Let me see you and your husband looking scruffy way up in the hills overlooking the city on mountain bikes, giving me interesting information about the area (see Diane’s Steamboat Ditch video).
JoAnn it’s always easy, and a whole lot of fun!, to tell someone how to do their job. I only know them from this website, but I have to assume that if Diane and Guy have taken you on as a colleague, you’re probably ok. I hope I havn’t gone too far here. C ya someday.
Tony
It will be interesting to see if JoAnn can fit in with the Reno Realty Blog, or should just go be another spinmeister at Chase Nation. The kool-aid is a strong addiction and few realtors can kick the habit. Diane and Guy should be the poster children of the 12 step kool-aid recovery process for realtors.
Congratulaions JoAnn your video was great and you definetly have a face for the camera. Looking forward to more videos and your insights on the marketplace from some one who is in the trenches on a daily basis.
To Bantering Bear you have an appropriate moniker, it seems you just like to banter.
JoAnn can spar with the best of them.
Do you guys ever watch House Hunters on HGTV? No matter where you are, Florida, Wisconsin, Paris or Costa Rica, all the agents proclaim that “you better buy this now, it won’t last…” It really does sound like Stepford Agents.
Gina - I’m sure you know this, and not to belabor the obvious, but they only get paid when there is a sale. And the best way to get a sale is to create a sense of urgency. So of course they all go the “buy now, it won’t last” route.
It’s just that on a site like this it comes across as … what it is — a very transparent pitch.
But think of the bright side. If they got paid by the hour we’d have hours and hours and hours of analysis!
Thanks everyone for responding to my current video. I appreciated all your comments and input as my goal is to become a good contributor to this blog. I especially wanted to respond to the following:
RI, you may have a point here, I sure could be wrong. We’ll just have to wait and see.
BB, yes - a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.
SkrapGuy, thanks for the pointers – I’m working at weaning myself off the Kool-aid.
Tony from Germany, as an avid reader here it’s great that you were compelled to finally respond to a blog.