So welcome to August.  The "buying" season is officially over for those hoping to relocate before the start of the school year.  The "selling" season will show up in the stats for the next couple of months as escrows close and be trumpeted by the RSAR and RGJ as if some corner has been turned, some bottom reached..  Barring some blockbuster numbers from Jack and Diane (sorry Guy, I couldn’t resist) in their pending market reports, Summer 2008 looks ho-hum at best.  Over 40% of sales are REOs.  It looks to me like another 30%  or more are short sales (when they finally, finally close).  Once again, this 25% segment of market listings is representing at lest 70% of sales, and conversely the "normal" 75% of listings are only generating 30% of the sales.  Weak.  Then  deduct the 10% of  the sales from the MLS that are now builder listings, and you get a pretty grim picture of what is really going on out there for sellers.

How did Washoe do in July?  Gross NODs totaled 549, down from 552 in June and 554 in May.  Something near 20% of the NODs are from HOAs at this point, and NODs are holding pretty steady.  NOSs were up 43% from June to 481, breaking all records.  And TDs soared 30% from June to 280, again, a County record.   When I look at my charts, the chances of preventing a NOD from becoming a NOS is basically 0% right now.  And only 20% or so of NOSs are being saved from Trustee’s Deeds.  I think NODs will start declining as everyone evaluates what the Government bailout means, and I think TDs will continue to rise for a few months.

This is probably the last time for the Creep Report, unless you are finding it particularly informative.  Preparing it entails manually opening up every NOS to search for information - if I’m going to go blind, mama said their are more fun ways!

Zip Code

May 2007 NOS

% of Total

May 2008 NOS

% of Total

June 2008 NOS

% of Total

 July 2008 NOS % of Total

89431

10

8.7%

24

6.7%

26

7.9%

40

8.5%

89433

2

1.8%

27

7.6%

18

5.5%

21

4.5%

89434

13

11.3%

18

5.0%

22

6.7%

27

5.8%

89436

21

18.3%

45

12.6%

37

11.2%

78

16.6%

89439

1

1.8%

0

0%

1

.3%

0

0%

89441

0

0%

3

.8%

2

.6%

4

.9%

89451/89402

5

4.3%

7

2.0%

5

1.5%

6

1.3%

89501

0

0%

0

0%

1

.3%

2

.4%

89502

8

7.0%

29

8.1%

19

5.8%

26

5.4%

89503

3

2.6%

14

3.9%

17

5.2%

28

6.0%

89506/89508

21

18.3%

85

23.7%

87

26.4%

107

22.8%

89509/89519

5

4.3%

23

6.4%

19

5.8%

32

6.8%

89510

0

0%

3

.8%

0

0%

0

0%

89511

3

2.6%

15

4.2%

15

4.6%

30

6.4%

89512

8

7.0%

21

5.9%

15

4.6%

17

3.6%

89521

9

7.8%

14

3.9%

28

8.5%

26

5.5%

89523

5

4.3%

29

8.1%

18

5.5%

24

5.1%

89704 

1

.9% 

1

.3% 

1

.3%

1

.2%

 

115

100.3%

358

100%

329

100.7%

469

99.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When I started tracking Creep, I really expected the percentages to start rising in the South Meadows and it really hasn’t happened as dramatically as I would have thought.  89511 has some pretty high end homes going to sale, but the zip code also includes Fallen Leaf and some homes east of 395.   Do you folks see any significant shifts going on?

Being a Second Gunman on the Grassy Knoll sort of guy, I have to wonder why the Center for Regional Studies is 10 days late releasing their monthly data to the public (they released it to the RGJ earlier).   We taxpayers pay for their services, and I would hate to believe that industry forces are preventing them from posting their research.  It really is the best data we have on what is really going on in the region.

There are cows grazing next door, and I’m about to cook a steak for dinner.  Does that make me Evil Mikey?  Enjoy the weekend, bloggers.