Do you know the Toscano project on Dickerson? It is riverfront property right across from Idlewild Park. Funky architecture with a high level of finishes, a developer’s personal statement. I toured a couple of the units a few years ago when they were listed around $500,000 as a Suzie McQuaid’s Deal of the Week. There is something pretty cool about having your deck overhang the Truckee.
The last 3 developer units went back to the bank this week for about $233K each. What do you do if you bought into a complex with comp units that are now going in foreclosure? You list ASAP before the foreclosed units hit the MLS, and hope no one reads this blog! 2030 Dickerson just listed to $414,500 (with Suzie again). It was bought in March 05 for $296,564, a pretty sweet deal at the time. Tic, tic, tic until the banks price their units at $200K. (OOPs, just checked the MLS for a link, and has been withdrawn already).
Hey Montage! Arlington Tower strikes back! Penthouse 23N at 100 N. Arlington just listed for $1,250,000. The unit is 1504 SF with a 550 SF deck overlooking the city. Purchased in 1996 for $230,000 and completely remodeled in 2003. Parking not included. That works out to a whopping $831 / SF. Comments on the photography are welcome.
I thought it might be a typo when 193 Smithridge Park listed today for $167,000. Surely they meant $67,000, right? The majority of the units listed in the complex are now in the $60-80,000 range, and a low of $49,900. 612 listed two weeks ago at a 2005 flashback price of $205,000. "The Kool-Aid is strong in this one, Obi-Wan."
Commercial Lender forwarded me this Mortgage Report from T2 Partners. Analysis of current default trends and predictions for the future. It is a 75 page document, but incorporates a lot of the charts and graphs you have seen elsewhere into one document. There is a lot of information to look at, and some of the data even surprised me. Read it, and let’s hear your comments. My impression is that it will make even the beariest bears get ready for hibernation. A big thank-you goes out to Commercial Lender for this contribution.
24 comments
Were the pictures for the Arlington penthouse taken through motor oil? I have seen pictures like that on other listings and I wonder what happened especially if you’re actually trying to sell the place.
Responding to the T2 Partners report, it’s interesting that on page 30 they mention the following: “The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely. In the long-term, housing prices will likely settle around fair value, but in the short-term prices will be driven both by psychology as well as supply and demand. The trends in both are very unfavorable”
This is typical post bubble behavior, and all bubbles end this way. Looks like it will not be any different this time.
I read the entire report, and didn’t find anything that hasn’t already been said before. I do agree that housing prices will fall well below the trend line due to a number of factors, and that could last for years. Unless there is some miraculous turnaround in the economy, we could have a situation where real estate prices stay well below fair value for a decade. Anybody spouting the “hurry up and buy a house” nonsense has absolutely no clue what they’re talking about.
I’ve seen those terrible pictures before too. It looks as if they were taken at a really low resolution and then blown up too big. I think it speaks very poorly of the listing agent. I would expect better quality when listing in this price range.
Nice contribution to the local fishwrap online tonight Mike:
http://www.rgj.com/article/20090606/NEWS/90606031&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Now will someone explain this Kool Aid listing to me: MLS# 70014116
It was “Priced to Sell!” at $650K, now its “Priced to Sell!” at $580K. This place is one block south of California Avenue (no cats, dogs, or small children need apply), and the pricing strategy on this admittedly nice place escapes me.
Re MLS 70014116:
Doesn’t the “7″ denote that the listing originated in 2007?
I wonder what the price was when it was first listed?
$650K when it was first listed.
Thanks. What’s going to be the real sale price?
I’m thinking around $395,000.
Let me add: according to Zillow, purchased in May of 2004 for $400K even. Zillow current estimate is $390K.
Old Southwest, especially in the Marsh/Nixon/Manor area seems at least to me to be the last neighborhood to start getting religion about pricing. Naturally, that is where Mrs. Wazoo and I would like to buy.
“Many of the communities that lost the least value are also seeing the least sales. Sales numbers for Incline Village, for example, point to a “stagnated market,” Layman said. The Arrowcreek and Saddlehorn area, one of the communities that lost the least value, is looking at a housing inventory of 12.5 months, Layman said. The inventory shoots up to three to four years when focusing on really high-end properties, McGonagle said. “On the surface, Arrowcreek looks like it’s holding up, but a lot of people are just holding off inventory,” McGonagle said. “A lot of the inventory there now was built by these sort-of dilettante developers who do one to two ultra custom homes. There are literally hundreds of (these properties) there, and they’re not moving. I think Arrowcreek is going to take a huge, huge tumble. There just aren’t enough people who can afford multimillion-dollar homes.”
Multimillion $ properties? Take a look at the MLS..There are tons of properties just over $500K that are not moving folks.
I just read the RGJ article and got a good chuckle from it. The people engaging in today’s “bidding wars” are likely to be tomorrow’s foreclosures. These folks are speculators, believing that housing has bottomed, and they’re getting a deal. $211k in Cold Springs? Give me a freaking break. By the time this meltdown is over with, the place will be worth less than $100k. Who’ll even want to live there when a gallon of gasoline is running $5.50? Lots of people just falling all over themselves to lock into an illiquid depreciating asset. Like sheep to the slaughter…
Wazoo, you referred to:
“Old Southwest, especially in the Marsh/Nixon/Manor area … where Mrs. Wazoo and I would like to buy.”
Would you please share a few `pro & con’ factors on why you decided upon this neighborhood?
Thanks.
Tom,
I too like the area around Marsh/Nixon/Manor but can’t afford it right now. Some of the pros of the area are that it is close to downtown while being suburbia. The homes have a cool feel to them and they aren’t tract homes. The cons are that the area is still overpriced for what they should be worth and most of the houses need a lot of work to bring them up to current comfort standards (i.e. double pane windows, A/C, larger bedrooms).
Paul nailed it - close to downtown, an “old school” neighborhood with plenty of trees and interesting homes.
One of the cons to the old southwest is the lot sizes. The .5+ acre lots in that area are very hard to come by.
Old Southwest is a dandy neighborhood, but you’re correct that reality has yet to reach the enclave.
What’s instructive to me about this entire thing is that no one at the RGJ seems to have a clue about the reality of the Reno real estate market.
It’s clear they don’t read this blog.
The other thing that’s at work is that there are no move-up buyers because their equity has vanished. And if they’re lucky enough to have some equity, it’s not near enough to make a down payment on a move-up home.
The Marsh/Nixon neighborhood used to be a logical step up for people looking for more room and a more ‘genteel’ neighborhood than their original one. Now, there are precious few buyers who qualify for houses in the area.
Just a thought.
The other thing that’s at work is that there are no move-up buyers because their equity has vanished. And if they’re lucky enough to have some equity, it’s not near enough to make a down payment on a move-up home.
Also Jumbo financing all but dried up..Unless your over 780 credit score, have 20%-30% cash down payment, excellent job stability, and 3-12 months reserves, and can jump thru 40 flaming hoops your shut out..
Prime jumbo is taking as big of a hit right now as sub-prime and Alt-A.
I was just at one of the big servicers meeting yesterday and they said they expect from 10%-23% of all WAMU, Chase, Countrywide/BOFA loans to go bad..Most of the jumbo paper written since 2004 was all “stated income”
Incline - were you the only one at the meeting that wasn’t surprised by the expectations?
“I was just at one of the big servicers meeting yesterday and they said they expect from 10%-23% of all WAMU, Chase, Countrywide/BOFA loans to go bad..Most of the jumbo paper written since 2004 was all “stated income””
While the politicians and stock market celebrate the end to the banking crisis, the worst is yet to come. Methinks they won’t be so successful selling the public on TARP II when, all of a sudden, the banks find themselves out of cash- again. I smell public unrest.
To BB,
The public just wants to be able to watch American Idol, America’s Next Top Model, 90210 redux, House, NCIS, and Two and a Half Men.
The Roman Empire staged circuses for its populace. The American Empire has television.
No unrest, just unease.
To BB,
The public just wants to be able to watch American Idol, America’s Next Top Model, 90210 redux, House, NCIS, and Two and a Half Men.
The Roman Empire staged circuses for its populace. The American Empire has television.
No unrest, just unease. And don’t forget the beer and pretzels!
Wazoo et al,
Regarding your Marsh/Nixon/Manor neighborhood: according to Trulia, a 3br/2bath, 2500sf, SFH on St. Lawrence Ave. just became a REO, and has been listed for a day.
Could this be an initial crack in the dam of high prices there? Hope so, maybe I’ll look there this time next year…
Hey Bill D.,
Don’t forget Bridezilla. It’s like COPS, but the stars are dumber. Give me Dog any day.