[Disclaimer – I realize many readers have strong opinions regarding the NAR and its Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun. The post below is simply passing along Mr. Yun’s latest forecast. The posting of his podcast does not necessarily imply I agree with the statements made.]
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun discusses the latest quarterly state sales and metro median price data release in the podcast below.
Click here to listen (duration 5:27 - takes a few seconds to load)
If you rather not listen I’ve extracted Yun’s points here:
- Growing demand in all 50 states
- Nationwide inventory levels are down to six months supply – consistent with broad price stabilization
- Months supply of inventory projected to fall further this year
- …resulting in higher home prices in more parts of the country
- Unit sales are expected to hold steady or increase (possibly as much as 10%) in 2010 compared to 2009
- Home values should begin to show modest increases in 2010 (possibly as much as 3% - 5%)
15 comments
I came across a web tool posted on cnn.com that makes an attempt to forecast the percentage change in median home price (Sep 2009 to Sep 2010 and Sep 2010 to Sep 2011) for 381 markets nationwide. It’s fun to play with the tool (http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/homepricedata/index.html). It predicts some markets are poised for growth (e.g., Seattle +1% & + 5.5%) while others are headed for more pain (e.g., Miami -29.2% & -4.8%). We come in with -15.3% (five months of that is behind us) and +3.8%.
Ha! This thread will be fun to watch and read…..I’ll go first.
I also heard a soundbite of disgraced Illinios Gov Blogovich (sp?) speaking yesterday at NW Univ on, wait for it, ethics! Kid you not. So, NAR speaking on rising home prices in 2010 by 3-5% and unit sales increasing after the tax credit is gone is just as laughable. But Bloggo and NAR in the same reference is quite fitting.
PriceItRight,
Thanks for sharing the link.
Guy,
Are we so bombastic that you felt the need to put in that disclaimer? That’s pretty funny. FWIW, I never mean to include you when I rail against these delusional RE people. I appreciate all you do for this blog.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way. His job is to make people think it’s safe to buy a house. It’s not called the “National Association of Realtors” for nothin’. They exist to lobby and improve the bottom line for realtors. As long as one realizes that, one can’t really take umbrage at their marketing pitch, except to note that they continually expose themselves as delusional, deceptive, cut throat, greedy, psychopaths every time they open their mouth.
I’d love to get Yun in a debate and ask him his opinion about:
1) massive and increasing government debt and the headwind it poses to the economy.
the expiring tax credit
2) historic unemployment levels
3) unprecedented foreclosure levels
4) the shadow inventory
5) Option ARM resets
6) the inevitability of rising interest rates
7) the critical dependence of the market upon government intervention in MBS, interest rates, and the provision of credit
Then I would like to see him argue that house prices are still going up this year. Y’all know he would. Cause he’s a mindless, greedy, idiot.
skeptical, what’d you expect. Another PhD in Economics that doesn’t know his a$$ from a hole in the ground. Makes you wonder how easy it is to get a PhD in Economics.
Skeptical,
I suppose you’re right; I probably didn’t need to place the disclaimer.
To CL,
This will be fun.
To Guy,
The disclaimer wasn’t necessary. We know you are an intelligent realist.
We should expect this type of commentary from the NAR. After all, didn’t the organization continue to say from 2007-2009 that times were great to buy?
And aren’t most of those happy purchasers underwater in their homes now?
And if underwater is a good thing, how long will it take those happy purchasers to be equity positive? A decade? A generation? Two generations?
And will they keep paying on their mortgages if there’s no hope of making up the losses until they are 115?
What ever happend to David Lereah?
As pathetic as Yun is, he has never quite made it to the level buffoonery demonstrated by Lereah.
Hey Guy, do you remember the first time you put up a thread and quoted Lereah as an independent “expert” on the housing market? I have to say you have never again made that mustake.
The other one we don’t hear much about anymore is Leslie Appleton-Young, the Chief Shill for the CAR. She was the one who claculated that the average California household could afford the median priced house in California, as long as the buyer utilized a neg-am teaser rate loan.
She was every bit as much a buffoon as Lereah was.
Got all the David Lereah you need right here:
http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/
Enjoy.
This guy is going to be bullish on real-estate every time he opens his mouth, and even a broken clock is right twice day, so yeah, eventually he will get it right.
The real estate values are still in free fall and will continue thur 2010 to mid 2011. hey reno
home values are still to high- try 2001- real estate levels thats were this is going HEY PEOPLE
THIS IS A DESERT WITH BAD WATER POORLY RUN CITY
BAD AIR QUALITY MOST NEW HOMES HAVE DEFECTS RADON ISSUES —- YOUR $800.OOO HOME NOW WORTH $275.000 IF YOUR LUCKY! THIS MARKET IS DOOMED– AND WILL BE FLAT FOR MORE THAN 10 YEARS!
BOB
hey bob NO NEED TO YELL!
By my estimate, the next 7 weeks will be the most important of the entire year for real estate in Reno and elsewhere. To claim the tax credit, one must have a signed contract by 30 Apr. Additionally, seasonal patterns dictate that activity/buyer interest increases significantly right about now.
Unfortunately, we’ll only know about buying activity in hindsight (unless anyone out there knows otherwise). That said, if activity through 30 Apr (as reflected by closings through June) doesn’t show robust and substantial activity, it will not bode well for the market for the rest of the year.
Every time the NAR speaks, I have the urgency to <> before and after I do the big <>