Shadow inventory? A bubble? AB284?

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Questions on the minds of many buyers and seller’s at the moment: Does shadow inventory exist? If so, how much shadow inventory is out there? What kind of impact can shadow inventory have on the local housing market? Do current home prices represent another bubble?

Yesterday, the RGJ ran a story asking some of these questions of various interested parties: lawmakers, real estate professionals, economists, lobbyists. See the piece here: Nevada housing brightens, but is storm coming?

It’s good read; I’d love to hear your comments.

And on a related note, after studying the foreclosure issue for nearly four years, the Nevada Association of REALTORS® (NVAR) released its latest “Face of Foreclosure” report, offering recommendations for state lawmakers and discounting fears about a so-called “shadow inventory” of foreclosed homes. See the NVAR’s Press Release here: NVAR’s “Face of Foreclosure” report debunks threat of “shadow inventory,” suggests ways lawmakers can help Nevadans move past foreclosure crisis

Again your comments are welcome.

About Guy Johnson

I am a licensed Nevada REALTOR® living and working in Reno, Nevada. Give me a call at 775-722-4011. My team and I will be happy to assist you with your real estate needs.
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3 Responses to Shadow inventory? A bubble? AB284?

  1. Sully says:

    The NVAR report is a bit rosy in suggesting the shadow inventory is a non issue. A bit like driving over the hill with 3 new tires and one bald one, thinking you have 3 good tires left in case the bald one goes.

    Recommend #7 suggests extending and expanding the Mortgage Debt Cancellation Relief Act until the housing crisis in Nevada is abated. Really! The USA has to wait until Nevada is ready to join the race? Personally I think it should be made permanent, with qualifying conditions added, that would prevent people that quit making payments and still living in the house from being able to qualify. Heck even ending the FED would be greatly appreciated! :)

    With inventory so low in the area, bringing 10% of the estimated 12,000 houses lying in wait back on line would help greatly, as every realtor in town will tell you. For the foreseeable future this won’t happen for perhaps another nine months and then only slowly. So expect a continuation of 2012 for most of 2013 and maybe into 2014.

    However, at some point the all time low interest rates will reverse and people with champagne tastes and beer pocketbooks will get their much deserved slap in the face with a doze of reality.

  2. GratefulD_420 says:

    ..maybe it’s just me…I can’t swear I read every word on every page of NVAR’s report, “debunks threat of shadow inventory,” but I failed to find any data whatsoever even dealing with the matter. I was even surprised that there were no theories to support that opening “debunking” statement. ?? What did I miss?

    The data that was shown in the report shows the same thing….. there was and are ALOT of delinquent mortgages that have yet to be resolved.

    I was entering with an open mind just trying to find some good facts supporting any information on Shadow inventory.

  3. Robert Adams says:

    AB284 is up for reconsideration right now (Feb 2013).

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/dec/09/banks-press-chan…

    We are experiencing low inventory here in Las Vegas. The decrease is a direct result from AB284 that has caused banks to stop foreclosing. Since it was passed in Oct. of 2011, REO inventory has decreased dramatically. The bill is up for reconsideration (possibly adding some amendments to allow some types of foreclosures to resume) when the Legislature meets again in Feb. 2013. It will be interesting to see the new affects on the market once additional inventory is reintroduced. I for one think the market will soften slightly but not free fall like it was before. Right now, with inventory being as low as it is, buyers are in bidding wars often times competing with more than a dozen offers. With that being said people are paying above appraisal value and homes are appreciating again at a temporary rate that is way higher than it should be. A new wave of inventory would return the Vegas market back to healthy growth with perhaps 2 or 3 offers on each property, not a dozen.

    Best Regards,
    Robert Adams
    Broker/Salesman
    C:702-349-9175
    F:702-932-8826
    RobertAdams@LVrealestateHELP.com
    http://www.LVrealestateHELP.com
    Founder of The Adams Team at Rothwell Gornt Companies and LVrealestateHELP.com

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