What will Reno, NV homes be worth in 10 years?

Referencing data from a new study from Renofi, REALTOR® Magazine reports that, “in Nevada, home prices have more than doubled since 2010, surging nearly 106%.” See What Will Homes Be Worth in 10 Years?

In their study, Renofi analyzed the average home price in every state, comparing it from September 2010 to September 2020, and then using that number to project a September 2030 value.

Renofi’s analysis projects Nevada’s September 2030 home value to be $652,526. [Note: Renofi’s Methodology states:

To estimate property prices in 2030, we took the average price in each state and the 50 most populated cities in the US for the present day (September 2020) and ten years ago (September 2010).
We then calculated the rate of change in values between the two dates and applied this rate of change to the average price in September 2020 to estimate how they might look in 2030, assuming that they continue on that same trajectory.

It’s unclear if by “average price” Renofi is referring to list prices or sold prices.]

Reno, NV home prices in 2030

Just for fun I decided to apply a similar methodology to home prices in our local markets. For my analysis, I looked at median sales price changes from September 2010 to September 2020 in the following markets and then used that delta to project the median sales price for 2030.

The table below shows the results of this exercise…

Hmmm…Reno, Nevada median home price at $1.2M in 2030. What do you think? I would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.


Note: Residential median home price data includes Site/Stick Built properties only. Data excludes Condo/Townhouse, Manufactured/Modular and Shared Ownership properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS and the Incline Village REALTORS® – October 27, 2020. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

For historical home sale data dating back to 1998 click here.

Click here to see Reno Homes for Sale.

Click here to see Incline Village Homes for Sale.

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About Guy Johnson

I am a licensed Nevada REALTOR® (lic.# S.0075262.LLC) living and working in fabulous Reno, Nevada. I cover Reno, Sparks, Incline Village, Carson City, and beyond. Give me a call at 775-722-4011 and I will be happy to assist you with your real estate needs. I'm your Guy!
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5 Responses to What will Reno, NV homes be worth in 10 years?

  1. Avatar Catherine says:

    I sure hope inflation doesn’t pick up that way with a starter home in Reno costing a million dollars!

  2. Avatar Chuck says:

    Sounds high. I’ll take the under on that bet.

    At a $1.15 million median price by 2030, home prices in Reno/Sparks would have to grow by 10% each year for the next ten years. That’s far higher than 3%-5% average annual price growth the market has experienced over an extended time. Also, 10% annual price growth would far exceed the pace of growth in the area’s median household income. Who would be able to buy at such high prices? Also, the article does not predict uptick in inflation, which has been around 2% per year for a couple of decades. So, if incomes and inflation are growing at less than 3% per year, what would be the driver for 10% annual price appreciation — an influx of buyers from California? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

    Using historical price growth rates of 3% – 5%, and no excessive uptick in inflation, I would expect 2020’s $440,000 median price in Reno/Sparks to grow to a figure between $590,000 and $715,000 by 2030.

  3. Avatar Guy Johnson says:

    Thank you for your comments, Catherine and Chuck. And thank you for reading the blog. Much appreciated! Good points made, Chuck.

  4. Avatar regularguy says:

    I predict that Reno prices will be lower in 2030 than they are today – A LOT lower. This is the biggest housing bubble in history, and Reno is the most overpriced market in the entire nation. The idea that they would go over a million is one of the most preposterous things I’ve ever heard. Housing is shelter which is paid for by wages, not speculative gains.

  5. Avatar Guy Johnson says:

    Thank you for your comment, regularguy.

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