I have just received February’s “Market Condition Report” from our friends at First Centennial Title. In addition to graphs and data contain within, the report also contains some commentary. Be sure to take a look at pages two and three for their analysis of the data. Their report presents different metrics from those on which we commonly report on this blog.
For example, the graph below converts total annual closings to rates per day (based on 365 day year) and then compares the past five years.
Another tidbit from the report: The strongest sub-market is Fallon. The weakest sub-market is Yerington.
Josh
I have a question –
Perhaps this is naive, however, as an owner of a home purchased in May/06 planning to live here for 10+ years, why does the downturn from the high prices of 05 really matter?
Isn’t this the cause and effect of market forces? As long as we don’t tailspin into recession (I dont think we will) other than those who are in the realty business, or have made dumb loan decisions, who cares? I know this impacts a large portion of society at the moment, but at some level don’t we take responsibility for our choices? Not knowing what you signed is no excuse for delinquency.
I think much of these posts and numbers refer to the majority of housing – stucco crap boxes that you couldn’t PAY ME to live in at ANY price. Now those awesome southwest gems like the one I live in are a different story.
I found the house I love, and maybe paid a 10% premium 6 months ago to live in it. But you know what – I love it! Markets go down, markets go up, and in every market there are deals, opportunities, and losses.
Josh
SmartMoney
Exactly, that’s why the the downturn from the high prices of 05 really matters. Because we all want to purchase when there is a good opportunity 🙂 And not be under water like those that bought in ’04, ’05, and ’06. Because you never know when things might change, with your job etc, and have to sell.
BanteringBear
Josh posted:
“As long as we don’t tailspin into recession (I dont think we will) other than those who are in the realty business, or have made dumb loan decisions, who cares?”
Note to Josh:
We ARE in a recession.
Allen Murray
Josh, I agree with you.
Josh
Hmmm…
Recession? I disagree – perhaps a housing recession, but the economy remains resilient.
I consult with several fortune 500 companies, and exports are up, corporate profits are as strong as ever when looking over a 50 year period, and our unemployment rate is still lower on average than in any previous decade.
My opinion is that any recessionary activity will be largely limited to housing and housing related industries, but will not drag our overall corporate performance into the crapper.
JOsh
Ann Onn
Do you consider the Wall Street Journal a reliable source?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120534519452630845.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Most Economists in Survey
Say Recession Is Here
“Thirty-six of 51 respondents, or more than 70%, said in a survey conducted March 7-11 that the economy is in recession.
“The Commerce Department said yesterday that retail sales fell 0.6% in February; sales excluding the volatile auto and auto-parts categories fell 0.2%. The declines reflect a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity…”
DERRICK
Bantering perhaps you should read up on what the definition of recession is?
oh and BTW WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION!
smarten
Our oracle from Spanish Springs proclaims “oh and BTW WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION!”
Right. And we don’t have any inflation either.
It seems that the only tangibles that have gone down in price the last year are LCD HDTVs and Reno SFRs.
Note to Derrick. Look up the definition of inflation.
Sully
BOCA RATON, Florida (Reuters) – The United States is in a recession that could be “substantially more severe” than recent ones, National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said on Friday.
The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad,” Feldstein said in a speech at the Futures Industry Association meeting in Boca Raton, Florida.
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn’t met the technical definition of one yet.
Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases.
Diane Cohn
Josh, I’m no economist, but I think we’re in a recession and don’t all agree/realize it yet. Just my two cents…
That said, I agree with the gist of your original post. I think it’s time to think of house as home. If you want to live someplace for 5-10 years, control the property, decorate and improve it the way you want, live someplace special… then go ahead and buy for what you feel is a fair price. It is your home, your sanctuary, and you want to feel pleased by your surroundings at the end of the day.
But if you’re looking to buy as pure investment, then run the numbers and decide by those alone. I’m guessing that for you purely analytical people, renting may be your best option for the foreseeable future.
Since the late eighties, I’ve viewed real estate heavily from a money-making point-of-view. But given the recent changes in market climate, now I’m thinking more in terms of house and home and tax credits.
Why? Because the downturn is well underway, and it feels significant. But we all need to live somewhere and feel good about our choice. I think we have to decide for ourselves, the value of trade-offs.
MikeZ
Josh wrote:
Well, Josh, at the very least, buying a highly leveraged depreciating asset at or near the peak was a waste of time and money.
At worst, when those 10 years have passed, your house may still be worth less than you paid (or owe).
The last national housing downturn lasted 8 years. Is there any reason to believe this one will be less severe?
If you’re OK with throwing $50K, $60K, $70K or more and a few years of growth away, well, more power to you.
Me, I prefer to be a bit more careful and wise with my money.
DERRICK
hmm the same financial guru’s that were telling us to keep buying right before the 2001 market crash smarten?
LoL Boy I believe ANYTHING these guys say!!