Here come the new agents!

crowdWow! The number of new real estate licensees in Washoe County has grown more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year. According to the most recent real estate statistics from the Nevada Real Estate Division as of May 2015 there are 2,790 Active licensees in Washoe County. Compare this number to the 2,531 Active licensees reported in January of this year [See the first Table below]

This increase in new real estate agents equates to more than 50 per month. At that rate of growth we’ll be back to 2007 highs in about nine months. The highest number of Active licensees I see in the Table below since I’ve been tracking this number is 3,229 reported in August 2007. It’s likely we’ll surpass that number. Which begs the question can our local housing market sustain that many real estate agents?

The answer to that question requires some in-depth analysis of many factors (units sold, median price, sales volume, sales commission, etc.), and is a good subject for another blog post. In the meantime, a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation shows that in terms of units sold per agent, expect that number to decrease.

Since turning the corner in 2012 the Reno-Sparks market has been averaging ~6,900 residential sales1 annually over recent years; and thus far this year appears to be tracking the same:

  • 2012: 6,976 units sold
  • 2013: 6,891 units sold
  • 2014: 6,794 units sold
  • 2015: 3,203 units sold (to date 6/23/2015)

Using 6,900 annual sales, equates to 13,800 transaction sides annually. [Each sale typically has two agents involved; one on the buyer side and one on the seller side.] With 2,790 current Active licensees that comes out to 4.9 transactions per agent this year. Compare that to last year when the roughly 2,450 licensees averaged 5.5 transactions per year. What will happen next year if the increase in the number of agents continues at it’s current pace? Without a corresponding increase in the number of sales, the projected 3,200+ licensees will average only 4.3 transactions per agent.

Now, of course, not all new licensees will have the same number of sales. The Pareto principal [a.k.a. “80-20 rule”] definitely applies to real estate sales. Skill set and success aside, many new licensees simply choose not to be full-time real estate agents. Some will be part-time and some will hold a license only for a referrals basis.

Again, without performing a more detailed analysis, it’s safe to say the local real estate agent arena is going to get a little more competitive. Welcome to the exciting world of real estate sales, new agents!

1The unit sales data reported covers the cities of Reno, Nevada and Sparks, Nevada [NNRMLS Area #100]. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built properties and Condo/Townhouse only. Data excludes Manufactured/Modular and Shared Ownership properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – June 2015. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Historical licensee numbers can be found in the Tables below for both Washoe County as well as the entire state.

Active Inactive Total
Washoe County Licensed RE Agents and Brokers
May 2015 2,790 710 3,500
January 2015 2,531 659 3,190
August 2014 2,455 629 3,084
March 2014 2,431 601 3,032
November 2013 2,460 538 2,998
April 2013 2,490 543 3,033
September 2012 2,506 555 3,061
May 2012 2,517 587 3,104
January 2012 2,537 623 3,160
June 2011 2,574 699 3,273
February 2011 2,578 744 3,322
March 2010 2,644 803 3,447
November 2009 2,737 779 3,516
September 2009 2,737 796 3,533
August 2009 2,725 817 3,542
March 2009 2,770 1,022 3,792
December 2008 2,888 1,001 3,889
September 2008 2,791 1,011 3,802
June 2008 2,984 1,085 4,069
January 2008 3,104 1,142 4,246
October 2007 3,176 1,134 4,310
August 2007 3,229 1,137 4,366
June 2007 3,221 1,237 4,458
April 2007 3,166 1,304 4,470

 

Active Inactive Total
Statewide Licensed RE Agents and Brokers
May 2015 20,984 5,275 26,259
January 2015 20,544 5,020 25,564
August 2014 20,403 4,671 25,074
March 2014 19,710 4,101 23,811
November 2013 19,484 3,937 23,421
April 2013 19,719 3,704 23,420
September 2012 19,832 3,642 23,474
May 2012 19,925 3,855 23,780
January 2012 19,987 4,264 24,251
June 2011 20,395 4,861 25,256
February 2011 20,744 5,276 26,020
March 2010 22,139 5,652 27,791
November 2009 22,612 5,802 28,414
September 2009 22,865 5,943 28,808
August 2009 22,920 6,066 28,986
March 2009 23,466 7,448 30,914
December 2008 24,327 7,457 31,784
September 2008 23,814 7,345 31,159
June 2008 25,986 7,518 33,504
January 2008 26,997 7,470 34,467
October 2007 28,115 6,970 35,085
August 2007 28,548 6,988 35,536
June 2007 28,763 7,418 36,181
April 2007 28,886 7,723 36,609

Source: Nevada Real Estate Division

Related post: Washoe County real estate licensees increase for the first time since the collapse of the housing bubble

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