According to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report: National home prices increased 3.7% year over year in November 2019 and are forecast to increase 5.3% from November 2019 to November 2020,
Recently I published a blog post where I attempted to forecast where Reno-Sparks home prices would be at the end of this year (2020). See Reno housing market forecast 2020
My methodology consisted of applying CoreLogic’s 2020 forecast for home prices nationally to the current median sales price for the Reno-Sparks market after adjusting for the relative difference in home price appreciation for Reno-Sparks compared to that of the U.S. [Again, see Reno housing market forecast 2020 for additional detail.]
Because many readers of this blog are also interested in home prices in other Northern Nevada housing markets, I employed the same methodology to other area housing markets in order to derive 2020 forecasts for those markets.
The table below shows the results of that exercise (click on the table to enlarge).
The table above contains data for housing markets surrounding the Reno-Sparks metro area. These markets include: Carson City, Dayton, Fernley, Minden/Gardnerville, and Incline Village. I also separated Reno from Sparks and included data for each in the table.
For each market I reported the median sales price for the 12-month periods: December 2017 – November 2018; and December 2018 – November 2019. I chose time periods ending on the month of November in order to correspond with the time period reported on in the aforementioned CoreLogic.
After determining the median sales price for each of the 12-month periods I calculated the percent increase in median sales price appreciation for each of the markets in the table.
Given the rate of home price appreciation, I then calculated two home price forecasts for 2020 [See the last two columns in the table] — one forecast assumed a market’s identical rate of growth as observed in 2019; the other forecast utilized a revised (upward) rate of home price appreciation that was based off of CoreLogic’s projection for home prices nationally after adjusting for the relative difference in home price appreciation for Reno-Sparks compared to that of the U.S.
Forecasts / Findings
While the two forecasts [see the last two columns in the table] provide a range where the 2020 median home price for each market may land, it is the differences in home price appreciation observed across markets that is particularly noteworthy.
Dayton, Nev. saw the largest home price appreciation with a 10.2 percent increase in the median homes price in 2019 over 2018. After Dayton was Carson City with an 8.1 percent increase in the median homes price in 2019 over 2018, followed by Fernley, Nev. with a 6.0 percent increase during the same time period. Each of these markets saw substantially higher rates of increase over Reno and Sparks 3.7 and 3.6 percent increases, respectively.
At the lower end of the appreciation scale was the Gardnerville/Minden market, which saw a 3.1 percent growth in home prices — below the national home price year-over-year appreciation of 3.7 percent for the same time period.
Is there a northern Nevada market in which you’re interested that I did not include? If so, let me know in the comments below.
Thank you for reading the Reno Realty Blog. – Guy