And just like that…
Wow! The Incline Village/Crystal Bay real estate market has quickly flipped from a “seller’s market” to a “buyer’s market” in less than two months — almost skipping the “balanced market” phase entirely.
For reference, generally, a balanced market will lie somewhere between four and six months supply of inventory (MSI). If MSI is less than 4 months, sellers have gained asking power (a.k.a. a seller’s market). If MSI is above 6 months, buyers have gained negotiation power (a.k.a. a buyer’s market).
MSI is calculated by dividing the current month’s inventory figure by monthly closed sales. The table below shows the Incline Village/Crystal Bay monthly MSI figures for the past 13 months.
As can be seen in the chart above the Incline Village/Crystal Bay real estate market for SFRs (single-family residences) was in a seller’s market as recently as April with 2.5 MSI. However as home sales began to slide, and available inventory began to increase, May’s MSI number more than doubled that of April’s — coming in at 5.8 MSI.
June saw more of the same — declining home sales and increasing inventory — resulting in a substantial increase in its MSI. June’s 12.0 MSI, not only doubled May’s MSI, but also placed the market well into a buyer’s market.
Consider that this time last year, June 2021’s MSI was 2.5 months.
In this current buyer’s market home sellers are facing considerably more competition from other sellers, and are consequently offering incentives and revising asking prices. Indeed, of the currently listed SFRs, 28.1 percent of the properties have undergone at least one price reduction.
In addition to having much more inventory from which to choose, Buyers are finding that many home sellers are being more flexible on their sales price and offer terms.
So, where do we go from here? Many prospective buyers are taking a pause from home shopping while they process the current macro economic uncertainties: How high will inflation rise? How long will inflation persist? What will interest rates do in the short term vs long term? When will the bear markets across asset classes (stocks, crypto, etc.) bottom and begin to recover? Are we in a recession, and, if so, how long will the recession last? When will the Russia-Ukraine war cease?
These uncertainties will continue to depress home sales until some clarity is reached. It is difficult to predict how long this will take. And with inventory at record levels, and rising, the real estate market may be entrenched in a buyer’s market from some time.
June’s median sales price for Incline Village and Crystal Bay, NV pulled back to $2,587,500 — a 2.4 percent decrease from May’s median sales price of $2,650,000. Year-over-year, June’s median sales price was up 27.8 percent.
June’s median sold PPSF (price per square foot), however, rose to $1,065.10/sq.ft. — a whopping 23.0 percent increase over May’s median sold PPSF.
Year-over-year, June’s median sold PPSF was up 33.2 percent.
June home sales dropped to only 8 homes sold for the month — one-third the number of homes sold in June last year. June home sales were down 38.5 percent from May’s 13 home sales; and down a whopping 66.7 percent year-over-year.
Median days on market (DOM) decreased to 41 DOM — a return to April’s DOM number.
As mentioned above, available inventory continues to rise. June’s 96 SFRs for sale represents a 28.0 percent increase over May’s 75 homes for sale. Year-over-year, available inventory is up 60.0 percent. The 96 SFRs currently available for purchase represents a 12.0-months supply of inventory.
Pending sales decreased for the month. Currently, 14 homes are pending sale — a 12.5 percent decrease from this time last month.
Year-over-year, pending sales are down 51.7 percent.
14 condos and townhomes sold in June — up 40.0 percent over May’s 10 condo and townhome sales.
Year-over-year, June’s sales were down 41.7 percent.
June’s median sales price for condos/townhomes fell 6.6 percent from May to $1,077,500. Year-over-year, June’s median sales price is up 35.2 percent.
June’s median sold PPSF for condos/townhomes climbed to $801.651/sq.ft. — up 10.7 percent over May’s sold PPSF number, and up 31.4 percent year-over-year.
June’s median DOM for condos/townhomes climbed to 52 days — an increase of 23 days over May’s 29 DOM number.
There are currently 45 condo/townhomes listed as available for purchase. This number represents just over a 3-months supply of inventory based off of June’s sales.
Click here to see Incline Village and Crystal Bay homes for sale
Data courtesy of the Incline Village REALTORS® – July 3, 2022. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.