In its U.S. Home Price Insights — March 2024 report, CoreLogic® reveals a year-over-year increase of 5.8% in home prices for January 2024, contrasting with a slight month-over-month decrease of 0.1% from December 2023 to January 2024.
Looking ahead, the forecast suggests home prices will stabilize from January to February 2024, with an expected annual growth of 2.6% by January 2025. Despite the highest annual home price gains seen in a year as of January 2024, projections indicate a slowdown in growth due to factors such as high mortgage rates and inventory shortages, exacerbating affordability challenges.
What does this project for Reno, NV Metro home prices?
The Reno Metro median home price came in at $534,500 for January 20241. This number represented a year-over-year increase of 4.8% in home prices for January 2024.
Applying CoreLogic’s forecasted annual growth of 2.6% by January 2025 to the Reno Metro’s $534,500 median sales price results in a projected median sales price of $548,397.
Of course, longtime readers of this blog know that Reno’s housing market does not track national housing trends in lockstep, but rather tends to front-run the U.S. housing market—in both uptrends, as well as downturns.
Perhaps we can obtain a bit more accurate projection of Reno’s January 2025 median home price by performing a quick backtest.
In its U.S. Home Price Insights — March 2023 report, the CoreLogic HPI ForecastTM indicated that home prices would increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.1% from January 2023 to January 2024.
As mentioned above the Reno Metro median home price for January 2024 represented a 4.8% year-over-year increase—or a +54.8% delta over the January 2024 CoreLogic forecast provided in the U.S. Home Price Insights — March 2023 report
Applying this same delta to CoreLogic’s forecasted annual growth of 2.6% by January 2025 yields a revised annual growth of 4.0%—resulting in a January 2025 Reno Metro projected median sales price $555,880.
However, forecasts are…well, forecasts. Simply a prediction or estimate of future conditions based on various data, trends, and analysis methods.
Recall, at the top of the piece, CoreLogic’s recent U.S. Home Price Insights report for March 2024 reported an actual year-over-year increase of 5.8% in home prices for January 2024. Over this same time period the Reno Metro area saw only a 4.8% year-over-year increase—or a delta of -17.2%.
In other words, from January 2023 to January 2024 the rate of increase in home prices in the Reno Metro area was 17.2% below the increase in U.S. home prices.
Applying this -17.2% delta to CoreLogic’s forecasted annual growth of 2.6% by January 2025 yields a revised annual growth of 2.15%—resulting in a projected January 2025 Reno Metro median sales price $545,992.
So, what are your thoughts? Where do you think local home prices will be next year? We’d love to read your comments below.
Some food for thought, in yesterday’s Reno-Sparks Real Estate Pulse: February 2024 Market Insights we reported…
The median home price for the Reno-Sparks real estate market rose to nearly $550,000 in February. February’s median sales price represents a notable 2.9% one-month increase over January’s median; and a healthy 6.8% year-over-year increase.
Comparing February 2024’s 2.9% month-over-month increase to last year’s over the same time period, we observe this increase to be nearly 3× the 1.0% month-over-month increase observed in February 2023.
1. The residential housing market data reported on above covers the cities of Reno, Nevada and Sparks, Nevada [NNRMLS Area #100]. Market data includes SFR (Single Family Residence) properties only. Data excludes Condo/Townhouse, Manufactured/Modular properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – March 6, 2024. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
For historical home sale data dating back to 1998 click here.
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