April NODs came in at 710, down from 998 in March and 931 in February. NOSs fell to 637 from March’s 794, but up from 406 in February. TDs soared to 348 from 284 in March and 180 in February. Only June and July 2009 had higher TD numbers. This is not a surprise, given the elevated number of NOSs we have been seeing
Half way through April, NOSs were out pacing NODs, and both were posed to break previous record highs. Then filings just stopped dead in their tracks. I am starting not to be able to ignore that there really IS is a man behind that curtain with his levers and widgets controlling what we are allowed to see in the foreclosure market.
Great news downtown – Raymond’s Sourdough Bakery has reopened on North Virginia between 2nd and 3rd. They proof and par bake their bread in South San Francisco, truck it up daily, and finish bake it right here. Call ahead and they can have it steaming from the oven for you when you arrive. Please support Raymond’s – the bread is outstanding, and they are trying to make a difference downtown.
News I’m trying to figure out downtown – an interior demolition permit as been filed for the Old Reno Casino on Commercial Street, and work is progressing. I always thought Old Reno was part of the Fitzgerald’s property, but it turns out to be part of the old Golden Phoenix purchase (and was never included in the Montage project).
One to watch – the modified loan on the Fitz by DRW Fitzgerald comes due 5 May 2010.
In a (maybe) related development – 102 Jeffrey Pine hit the market yesterday for $1,495,000. It was purchased for $1,812,790 in August 2007 and had a lot of bucks poured into it to achieve "Mountain Zen" status. The owner is the developer of the Montage and Fitzgerald’s. Things that make you go HUMMMMM.
I have nothing new to add about the Ritz Carlton foreclosure at Northstar, though I wish I did. The East-West spokes-model said it was a "timing" issue. I remember that exact term being used before Lakeridge Apartments went TD. And now the other part of Lakeridge Apartments owned by Tee Investments is in default. Where did the refinance money go?
Page Ventures / NRES continues to be an interesting story. NRES is now acquiring properties as NRES 3, and has even branched off into buying HUD and Fannie foreclosure properties. The updated spreadsheet of their activity can be viewed at at REreno. Page looks to be taking a beating on 649 Alpine in IV, but continues to be successful on the whole.
Say it isn’t so – Mi Casa Too (Two?) on West 4th at Stoker received an NOD today. Sure, maybe the worst Mexican food in the region, but it is an institution and the headquarters of the FOEs (Friends of Eric, for those of you that have been around long enough to remember my Bill, Pete, and Jr. Jesus post from a couple years ago). I wish Mi Casa and the FOEs the best of luck, I really do.
You know what’s really cool? You folks on the blog. Your insight never ceases to amaze me, and inspires me to keep on digging. That some of you occasionally are moved to send me a "good job" message means a lot to me, and I thank you all.
MikeZ
Mike, FYI, the chart you linked to stops at March.
inclinejj
Raymonds is good bread
I have been going there since Parisian in the city closed up shop
2 for one day old bread with a $2 buck off coupon every week in the Penny Saver..
2 bucks for two loaves of bread. Best deal in town
DownButNotOut
So you develop the Montage, give it up in ‘deed in lieu’ thereby screwing everyone out of their deposits while keeping your credit intact, and go on to live the life of luxury tucked away in your mountain estate. What a country, huh?
MikeZ
Grazie, link is fixed.
Merlon
Looks like Fernando decided to stop paying his taxes.
Mike McGonagle
The Page Ventures / NRES spreadsheet has been updated over at http://www.REreno.com. Some interesting stuff.
There is also a hot scoop about what is going on at Fitzgerald’s. Let’s see if the RGJ picks up this story, too! I’ll post here when the information firms up a bit.
smarten
Thanks for the update Mike.
PV made another misstep – it was Winding Way in IV which also remains for sale.
It just goes to show you it’s NOT as easy to flip in IV as it is in Reno/Sparks. Just guessing, but perhaps that means you really need to know your market?
Free Falling
The strangest thing about this chart is that the peaks and valleys of NOD, NOS and TD all roughly coincide. Logically, we would expect the peak of NOS to lag the peak of NOD and the peak of TD to lag the peak of NOS.
It is almost like the folks at the banks decide one month is a great month to process defaults and then take a month off rather than methodically moving through the files. We can blame some of this erratic behavior on the state and federal governments’ ill conceived attempts to “solve” the foreclosure problem.
It is clear from other evidence that the banks are now favoring short sales over foreclosures. Let’s see if they continue to improve turn times on short sales.
bob_c
your dog is awesome
billddrummer
The biggest problem with short sales is junior liens. I’m familiar with a transaction involving Bank of America (BAC), with a 1st, a second (from a commercial bank), and a 3rd from BAC.
Here’s the funny part. BAC is negotiating on the 1st through the state mediation program, but the representative wasn’t empowered to make any decisions.
What’s more (and even funnier) is that the junior lien is being handled by someone else. But no one knows who. In fact, BAC didn’t even know it was in third position until the mediation hearing.
So it seems to me that BAC has some serious problems handling short sales involving junior liens.
Anyone who got a HELOC from Countrywide should be afraid.
Very afraid.
billddrummer
And further regarding the statistics–
It appears that the trend in all these data points–NODs, NOSs, and TDs–is ‘from the lower left to the upper right’–positive trends when you’re looking at stock prices.
For distressed real estate filings, Not So Much.
I consider myself an excellent trend analyst. But I can’t figure out what’s happening here.
Are lenders purposely delaying the logical progression from NOD to NOS to TD?
Are they dragging their feet because of internal dissonance?
Will this condition of not knowing continue through the summer?
GratefulD_420
That is some awesome sluething. Thank you.
One thing to say about the chart…. the trendlines generally keep trending upwards. Also when some factor pulls them up or down…for one or more months they get pulled back almost equally to make up the lost OR gained ground all the while slowly trending up.
So if most of the new NOD’s are now going short sale (is this true?) then the NOS & TD can continued to be filled by the shadow inventory. And as long as the guy behind the curtain doesn’t allow too much foreclosure on the street at once… prices will only slide and not fall. Once they see the trends of NODs significantly fall off….. THEN THEY CAN GO AFTER ALL THE SHORT-SELLERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THEIR MONEY!!!
billddrummer
To Grateful_ID,
As you know, short-sellers are on the hook for the deficiency for 6 years after the sale closes, unless the lender grants a deficiency waiver.
Makes it almost worthwhile to let the property go to foreclosure. The window is only six months.
Of course, that might be one reason why lenders are so reluctant to put properties into foreclosure, rather than pursue a short sale.
smarten
billd –
To a limited extent you can search district court filings over the internet. But you have to have a party’s name. Just for giggles I did a couple of searches using the names countrywide and indybank. I did come up with a couple of cases that were labeled “foreclosure.” Given most everyone who forecloses these days goes the non-judicial route; and unlike CA., the beneficiary of a deed of trust need not pursue judicial foreclosure in order to preserve his/her rights to a deficiency; I have to conclude that “foreclosure” labeled litigation is really deficiency litigation. If you want to, why don’t you play around at http://www.ccwashoe.com/public/ck_public_qry_cpty.cp_personcase_setup_idx ? Select the name of an institutional lender; insert it into the form handler; and see what you come up with. If you get an individual’s name as a defendant; and the case is labeled “foreclosure;” why don’t you do a property search of the individual and see what you come up with?
Good luck.
inclinejj
Smarten
It is also hard to buy in IV.
How many houses did you look at before you found your house?
Being so many properties are junk, so many are in areas you would not consider it is a waiting game till the right property comes up at the right price.
smarten
Your observation is very true IJJ. Unlike Reno/Sparks, there are very, very few housing tracts in IV where dozens and dozens of homes are essentially the same. This makes it “challenging” when it comes to performing a CMA. Take a look at the 34 IV SFRs [3 of which are actually in CB] that are currently for sale in the $900K-$1.5M price range. Throw out the geographically undesireable ones and there’s really not a whole lot to choose from that most of us would be willing to purchase assuming we had this amount of money to spend on a home. In contrast, take a look at the 3 IV SFRs [that’s right, there are ONLY 3] currently for sale in the less than $400K price range and I would venture to guess that very, very few of us would be willing to pay this kind of money for these homes. So what’s left? Not a whole heck of a lot until you start getting into the multiple million of dollars range – and then most would say these homes are grossly, grossly overpriced.
billddrummer
To smarten,
You’ve identified one of the most difficult areas for an appraiser–with so many different styles of homes in disparate locations with varying amenities–views, aspect, slope, access, etc., etc.–how do you value a ‘typical’ house in IV?
I would submit there’s no such thing.
gary
Can you hear that?
thats the sound of smarten’s equity evaporating..
gary
WHY ISN’T ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION TO ME?!
inclinejj
Well, Smarten sounds more like a buy and hold for long term. Plus he bought a primary residence. He didn’t buy it to hold it for a year or two. He is making this house a home. If you guys don’t know the difference that is your problem.
He did his homework and bought the house he wanted.
It sounds like he made a well made decission to buy. He knew the area of town he wanted to be in, he knew how much to spend, he knew how much square footage he needed.
billddrummer
To inclinejj,
That’s the impression I’ve gotten all along. Smarten looked for a home to live in for awhile, not to flip in a couple of years.
I would tend to think he did well.
Why he gets lambasted constantly eludes me.
Isn’t it OK to buy a house to live in?
inclinejj
Bill
Opinions are like as8holes. everyone elses stink’s but yours..
Old saying I heard from a good fishing buddy of mine
DownButNotOut
BDD – I agree with both inclinejj’s and you’re assessment of Smarten’s house being the right thing for him – but you have to admit he goes overboard to defend it. That is the irony that continues to present itself and keeps this as a hot topic. I submit to both of you – if you bought the same house in the same circumstance, would you continue to try to rationalize it? Personally,I wouldn’t bother. I’d just be happy with my place.
I’d say part of Smarten’s continued defense of his purchase is in itself some type of needed validation that a small part of him still has to prove to all us readers. And to himself.
MikeZ
smarten, it seeems you have a stalker/fan club here.
DownButNotOut
MZ – I’m not sure if that was a flip comment, but I’d agree. Might even be the stalker/fan club are same people, since there seem s to be some ‘out there’ comments against him from one time writers. I’ve said in the past I appreciate Smarten’s contributions and this site would be way less interesting without them. Doesn’t mean I’ll always agree with him.
inclinejj
Down
Every time we did an appraisal even if the loan to value was 20% the people would get highly offended when the report came in. I kept telling them it was a mute point, that you have a decent appraisal to get the loan. They would bitch up a storm saying my house is better then Mr Smith or Mr Jones down the street.
To me it sounds like Smarten made an educated well thought out and planned purchase.
I want to buy a SFR in IV. I know the area I want I know the square footage I need so I am waiting for the right house to come up at the right price.
Not only do we study the market in IV religiously but we also break it down into submarkets and subdivisions.