The following graphs were submitted by Cbam using the data in the table from this morning’s post (see below). Thank you for your contribution, CBam.
20 comments
MikeZ
The lower graph, Reno/Sparks YOY median sale price change shows a total YOY drop of ~24% (+10% to -14%) from Jan 06 to Jan 07.
The upper graph, shows a median price drop for the same time period of ~$320K to ~$280K, or ~13%.
How can that be? I must be reading at least one of those graphs wrong …
Speedy
The lower graph shows “rate of change” which is the derivative of upper graph (YOY). You cannot interpret it as 24% drop. As an analogy, you are comparing the speed (median price) with the distance (change in median price).
BanteringBear
Who was it that talked about how well Brighton Manor is doing? It appears as if prices are dropping as fast as Paris Hiltons pants. I was always under the impression that high demand begets higher prices, not lower prices.
LIndie
Looks to me that last month’s sales volume is down 48% from its 2005 high, and that the median price is down 14% from its 2005 high. These are Guy’s numbers, not mine. Clearly these numbers indicate that prices have dropped and sales are significanly off from two years ago. Shall we all designate Guy a “hostile pessimist” for posting these numbers about the market?
Reno Girl
Anyone see this comment from Bob Toll when asked to grade how different housing markets across the country are doing for them: “Reno is an ‘F’.” Not a very comforting sign for our housing market when the head of one of the major homebuilders rates us as an F. Here’s the link: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
I was the one who said Brighton Manor sales were doing well, based on the number of people occupying the newly built units, the fact their sales people informed me sales are decent, and that they will soon be starting the second and third phases of Brighton Manor. Of course their prices are goign to drop…do you really think they are stupid enough to keep their prices the same when builders out in Spanish Springs are now offering homes at $250,000 with free upgrades that were previously in the mid 300’s? In this incident it is not a case of supply and demand its a case of adjusting new home prices like the rest of the builders are. Just like airlines: One airline would be pretty stupid to sell tickets to L.A. at $300 when your competitor is selling them for $150.
Perhaps Bob Toll should consider building homes that don’t cost $900,000 if he’d like to do better in the Reno market. Of course a luxury home builder is going to give Reno an F…that’s because that’s one of the worst performing markets in Reno right now. Builders need to target the under 350K range, like District at Victorian Square is doing, which is probably why their first phase sold out. And why Virginia Lake Crossing has garnered so much interest.
Revi Slessinger
What is it with Lindie, Bantering Bear and Reno Ignoramous? I agree with the other poster in a previous thread; you guys almost get off on bad news of the real estate market. What’s your angle? Why do you put so much energy into being negative, pretty much discounting any signs of positive life in the market no matter how small that sign may be. From the tone of your posts it’s almost like you want hundreds of people to lose their homes. You cheer when foreclosure numbers are released, you cheer when sales are down 48% percent, you ripped apart downtown like a group of 70 year old anti-urbans sitting on your ranchhouse porches, none of you really seem happy living in Reno, you take no pride in your own community, only trash it, you haven’t had one positive thing to say about anything ever on this blog. It gets so old.
SkrapGuy
It is not supply and demand that is causing the developers to drop their prices? huh?
You mean that if the developers had people camping out to put down a deposit, like 3 years ago, they would still be dropping their prices? The developers are dropping their prices all over town because the demand is down.
The District at Victorian Square has taken some pretty nominal deposits, that’s all. No way has the first phase “sold out” if we mean people actually writing checks for the full purchase price. And, the project is already experiencing cancellations. Let’s watch this project real closely.
BanteringBear
Mike Van H posted:
Of course their prices are goign to drop…do you really think they are stupid enough to keep their prices the same when builders out in Spanish Springs are now offering homes at $250,000 with free upgrades that were previously in the mid 300’s? In this incident it is not a case of supply and demand its a case of adjusting new home prices like the rest of the builders are. Just like airlines: One airline would be pretty stupid to sell tickets to L.A. at $300 when your competitor is selling them for $150.
Forgive me, but that’s just stupid talk Mike. Of course it’s supply and demand. Builders do not discount homes when they are moving quickly at full price. What do you think the price cuts do? They generate more demand! I have a sneaking suspicion you have some sort of financial interest in Brighton Manor.
Revi posted:
What is it with Lindie, Bantering Bear and Reno Ignoramous? I agree with the other poster in a previous thread; you guys almost get off on bad news of the real estate market. What’s your angle?
Gee what a surprise. NOT. What’s my angle? To inform the potential homedebtors who aren’t aware of the ugly truths about todays real estate market. I would like to see affordable housing for the average family in a market which is based on fundamentals, and not fraudulent appraisals, fraudulent loan documents, cash back at closing schemes, bogus multiple offers, neg am loans, etc. There is nothing negative about that, though people of your ilk love to say otherwise. It seems to me, the only ones who have a problem with me, are those desperate to keep the overinflated prices up for their own selfish reasons. Do you fit that mold?
LOL you’re funny bantering bear. I didnt mean that it wasnt supply and demand I phrased that wrong. Hey it happens, so shoot me. It’s obvious demand has gone down, well because sales are down and there’s high inventory. I just felt like they lowered their prices to match the other builders in town who are selling similar size homes etc.
I have no financial interest in ANY development whatsoever, especially Brighton Manor. It’s not even one of the developments I regularly report about on my site. I think they’re cute, that’s about as far as my interest goes, other than what the sales people report to me. My financial interest is the neighborhood I live and work in; old Southeast between Wells Ave and Virginia, and with all due respect Mr. Bear, I have busted my butt to ensure my neighborhood continues to foster; from being the first to meet with my councilwoman to get this neighborhood declared a historic bungalow district, to the Wells Ave Neighborhood Master Plan of which I have help shaped and form to the dozens of NAB meetings I’ve gone to, to working with the Affordable Housing Task Force to help increase owner occupancy in these still-affordable homes. So please don’t assume that just because I talk about a project, that I have a financial interest in it, because you would be surprised, and probably impressed, at the amount of energy I inject into my OWN neighborhood to continue its transition.
To Revi: whoah! You turned on the grumpy machine full boar. Personal attacks like that are pretty unnecessary. Bantering Bear I feel does care, and his posts arent quite as meanspirited as Lindies. Lindie I am not sure what her/his trip is, and Reno Ignoramous, well he complains but what he complains about is typically legitimate. It’s America! People have the right to say what they want, even if it is constantly unnecessarily negative (Lindie).
Revi Slessinger
I would believe you Bantering Bear if your comments didnt extend past the ups and downs of the real estate market, but often you, Lindie and Reno Ignoramus just attack other posters and anyone who doesn’t agree with your narrow negative view. I’ve seen you guys attack posters just moving here, I’ve seen you attack that Derrick guy a million times, and sometimes Lindie snaps back even at Diane and Guy like she’s some kind of all-knowing super goddess. The negative vibes around this blog stink.
Allen Murray
Finally Bantering Bear has given us some inkling of why he seems to express such glee in the declining real estate market “To inform the potential homedebtors who aren’t aware of the ugly truths about todays real estate market. I would like to see affordable housing for the average family…..” Thanks for finally telling us where you are coming from instead of constantly being snide. I would suggest that most who read this blog are informed. For those who are uninformed, all they have to do is turn on the local news or read the paper. I make my living buying and selling real estate and turn to this blog primarily for the latest maket data. Its obvious that the maket is in decline, and it gets very old listening to you state the obvious over and over again in your “I’m going to save the next idiot” mentality. I will continue to watch this blog to see when Bantering Bear thinks we’ve hit bottom so I can start buying again=). Also, since this blog is run by realtors, whos job is to buy and sell real estate for their clients, be thankful that they even post all the negativity that some on this boad constantly spew and cut them some slack whey they tell about a recent sale, or advertise one of their listings as a good deal.
But aren’t you attacking Bantering Bear right now? Yall need to stop this it really dillutes the professionalism of Diane’s blog.
BanteringBear
Dear Revi,
You’re still mad at me over my comments about downtown. Admit it. We share different opinions and you don’t like that. I stick by everything I have said. I am happy to agree to disagree with you, or anyone on this blog. It’s only real estate, so don’t let my comments ruin your days. Ignore them if you don’t like them. I’m sure my occasional jaunt down the “low road” ruffles a few feathers, but wouldn’t the blog be boring without a few heated discussions?
Love,
BanteringBear
SkrapGuy
Revi:
You accuse the people here who post what you don’t like of attacking other posters. You mean just like the way you are now attacking them now?
I agree with Mike Van H. Let’s let everybody share their comments. If the “negative vibes around this blog” here are so bad for you, just don’t read it. I would rather have robust debate than censorship Revi.
Reno Ignoramus
While it is apparently more fun for some people to impose their standards about how others ought to think and act, perhaps we can return to the subject of this blog, which I think is the Reno real estate market.
I’ve been looking at the median price decline, which is about 14-15% off the 2005 highs. But isn’t the decline effectively more than that? In 2005, how many sellers were paying buyers’closing costs? How many sellers were willing to perform thousands of dollars in repairs/maintenance as a prerequisite of the sale? How many sellers were offering vacations to their buyers?
All of these things erode the effective return to the seller, don’t they?
To Allen:
Ever since Diane first put this blog online over a year ago, I have repeatedly thanked her for her willingness to tell the truth about the market and not just be yet one more realtor shill site. I invite you to search back through the archives, as far back as they go, to verify this. Or, maybe you could just ask Diane herself about my contributions and gratitude. I invite you to do that.
Derrick
Yet another thread completely destroyed. nothing to do with the article it was intended for.. way to go guys.. boring… yawns…
BanteringBear
“I’ve been looking at the median price decline, which is about 14-15% off the 2005 highs. But isn’t the decline effectively more than that? In 2005, how many sellers were paying buyers’closing costs? How many sellers were willing to perform thousands of dollars in repairs/maintenance as a prerequisite of the sale? How many sellers were offering vacations to their buyers?
All of these things erode the effective return to the seller, don’t they?”
You’re correct RI. And I would also add that the median price does not take into consideration square footage. People are getting much more house for the price these days. As an example, while a sales price of $350k might have purchased a 1600 square foot home at the peak, it might get you something in the neighborhood of 2000 square feet now. Median price doesn’t tell the whole story.
BanteringBear
Mike Van H,
I think it’s fantastic what you are doing for your neighborhood, and the city as a whole. I admire you for it. One annoying side effect of the recent hyperinflation of prices and rampant speculation is that it leads to the deterioration of many neighborhoods, rather than fostering a sense of community. Foreclosures are BAD for neighborhoods, and the community in general. High vacancies lead to higher incidences of vandalism, and crime period. It’s good to hear there are people like you out there who are in it for the long haul.
The following graphs were submitted by Cbam using the data in the table from this morning’s post (see below). Thank you for your contribution, CBam.
MikeZ
The lower graph, Reno/Sparks YOY median sale price change shows a total YOY drop of ~24% (+10% to -14%) from Jan 06 to Jan 07.
The upper graph, shows a median price drop for the same time period of ~$320K to ~$280K, or ~13%.
How can that be? I must be reading at least one of those graphs wrong …
Speedy
The lower graph shows “rate of change” which is the derivative of upper graph (YOY). You cannot interpret it as 24% drop. As an analogy, you are comparing the speed (median price) with the distance (change in median price).
BanteringBear
Who was it that talked about how well Brighton Manor is doing? It appears as if prices are dropping as fast as Paris Hiltons pants. I was always under the impression that high demand begets higher prices, not lower prices.
LIndie
Looks to me that last month’s sales volume is down 48% from its 2005 high, and that the median price is down 14% from its 2005 high. These are Guy’s numbers, not mine. Clearly these numbers indicate that prices have dropped and sales are significanly off from two years ago. Shall we all designate Guy a “hostile pessimist” for posting these numbers about the market?
Reno Girl
Anyone see this comment from Bob Toll when asked to grade how different housing markets across the country are doing for them: “Reno is an ‘F’.” Not a very comforting sign for our housing market when the head of one of the major homebuilders rates us as an F. Here’s the link: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
Mike Van H
I was the one who said Brighton Manor sales were doing well, based on the number of people occupying the newly built units, the fact their sales people informed me sales are decent, and that they will soon be starting the second and third phases of Brighton Manor. Of course their prices are goign to drop…do you really think they are stupid enough to keep their prices the same when builders out in Spanish Springs are now offering homes at $250,000 with free upgrades that were previously in the mid 300’s? In this incident it is not a case of supply and demand its a case of adjusting new home prices like the rest of the builders are. Just like airlines: One airline would be pretty stupid to sell tickets to L.A. at $300 when your competitor is selling them for $150.
Mike Van H
Perhaps Bob Toll should consider building homes that don’t cost $900,000 if he’d like to do better in the Reno market. Of course a luxury home builder is going to give Reno an F…that’s because that’s one of the worst performing markets in Reno right now. Builders need to target the under 350K range, like District at Victorian Square is doing, which is probably why their first phase sold out. And why Virginia Lake Crossing has garnered so much interest.
Revi Slessinger
What is it with Lindie, Bantering Bear and Reno Ignoramous? I agree with the other poster in a previous thread; you guys almost get off on bad news of the real estate market. What’s your angle? Why do you put so much energy into being negative, pretty much discounting any signs of positive life in the market no matter how small that sign may be. From the tone of your posts it’s almost like you want hundreds of people to lose their homes. You cheer when foreclosure numbers are released, you cheer when sales are down 48% percent, you ripped apart downtown like a group of 70 year old anti-urbans sitting on your ranchhouse porches, none of you really seem happy living in Reno, you take no pride in your own community, only trash it, you haven’t had one positive thing to say about anything ever on this blog. It gets so old.
SkrapGuy
It is not supply and demand that is causing the developers to drop their prices? huh?
You mean that if the developers had people camping out to put down a deposit, like 3 years ago, they would still be dropping their prices? The developers are dropping their prices all over town because the demand is down.
The District at Victorian Square has taken some pretty nominal deposits, that’s all. No way has the first phase “sold out” if we mean people actually writing checks for the full purchase price. And, the project is already experiencing cancellations. Let’s watch this project real closely.
BanteringBear
Mike Van H posted:
Of course their prices are goign to drop…do you really think they are stupid enough to keep their prices the same when builders out in Spanish Springs are now offering homes at $250,000 with free upgrades that were previously in the mid 300’s? In this incident it is not a case of supply and demand its a case of adjusting new home prices like the rest of the builders are. Just like airlines: One airline would be pretty stupid to sell tickets to L.A. at $300 when your competitor is selling them for $150.
Forgive me, but that’s just stupid talk Mike. Of course it’s supply and demand. Builders do not discount homes when they are moving quickly at full price. What do you think the price cuts do? They generate more demand! I have a sneaking suspicion you have some sort of financial interest in Brighton Manor.
Revi posted:
What is it with Lindie, Bantering Bear and Reno Ignoramous? I agree with the other poster in a previous thread; you guys almost get off on bad news of the real estate market. What’s your angle?
Gee what a surprise. NOT. What’s my angle? To inform the potential homedebtors who aren’t aware of the ugly truths about todays real estate market. I would like to see affordable housing for the average family in a market which is based on fundamentals, and not fraudulent appraisals, fraudulent loan documents, cash back at closing schemes, bogus multiple offers, neg am loans, etc. There is nothing negative about that, though people of your ilk love to say otherwise. It seems to me, the only ones who have a problem with me, are those desperate to keep the overinflated prices up for their own selfish reasons. Do you fit that mold?
Mike Van H
LOL you’re funny bantering bear. I didnt mean that it wasnt supply and demand I phrased that wrong. Hey it happens, so shoot me. It’s obvious demand has gone down, well because sales are down and there’s high inventory. I just felt like they lowered their prices to match the other builders in town who are selling similar size homes etc.
I have no financial interest in ANY development whatsoever, especially Brighton Manor. It’s not even one of the developments I regularly report about on my site. I think they’re cute, that’s about as far as my interest goes, other than what the sales people report to me. My financial interest is the neighborhood I live and work in; old Southeast between Wells Ave and Virginia, and with all due respect Mr. Bear, I have busted my butt to ensure my neighborhood continues to foster; from being the first to meet with my councilwoman to get this neighborhood declared a historic bungalow district, to the Wells Ave Neighborhood Master Plan of which I have help shaped and form to the dozens of NAB meetings I’ve gone to, to working with the Affordable Housing Task Force to help increase owner occupancy in these still-affordable homes. So please don’t assume that just because I talk about a project, that I have a financial interest in it, because you would be surprised, and probably impressed, at the amount of energy I inject into my OWN neighborhood to continue its transition.
To Revi: whoah! You turned on the grumpy machine full boar. Personal attacks like that are pretty unnecessary. Bantering Bear I feel does care, and his posts arent quite as meanspirited as Lindies. Lindie I am not sure what her/his trip is, and Reno Ignoramous, well he complains but what he complains about is typically legitimate. It’s America! People have the right to say what they want, even if it is constantly unnecessarily negative (Lindie).
Revi Slessinger
I would believe you Bantering Bear if your comments didnt extend past the ups and downs of the real estate market, but often you, Lindie and Reno Ignoramus just attack other posters and anyone who doesn’t agree with your narrow negative view. I’ve seen you guys attack posters just moving here, I’ve seen you attack that Derrick guy a million times, and sometimes Lindie snaps back even at Diane and Guy like she’s some kind of all-knowing super goddess. The negative vibes around this blog stink.
Allen Murray
Finally Bantering Bear has given us some inkling of why he seems to express such glee in the declining real estate market “To inform the potential homedebtors who aren’t aware of the ugly truths about todays real estate market. I would like to see affordable housing for the average family…..” Thanks for finally telling us where you are coming from instead of constantly being snide. I would suggest that most who read this blog are informed. For those who are uninformed, all they have to do is turn on the local news or read the paper. I make my living buying and selling real estate and turn to this blog primarily for the latest maket data. Its obvious that the maket is in decline, and it gets very old listening to you state the obvious over and over again in your “I’m going to save the next idiot” mentality. I will continue to watch this blog to see when Bantering Bear thinks we’ve hit bottom so I can start buying again=). Also, since this blog is run by realtors, whos job is to buy and sell real estate for their clients, be thankful that they even post all the negativity that some on this boad constantly spew and cut them some slack whey they tell about a recent sale, or advertise one of their listings as a good deal.
Mike Van H
But aren’t you attacking Bantering Bear right now? Yall need to stop this it really dillutes the professionalism of Diane’s blog.
BanteringBear
Dear Revi,
You’re still mad at me over my comments about downtown. Admit it. We share different opinions and you don’t like that. I stick by everything I have said. I am happy to agree to disagree with you, or anyone on this blog. It’s only real estate, so don’t let my comments ruin your days. Ignore them if you don’t like them. I’m sure my occasional jaunt down the “low road” ruffles a few feathers, but wouldn’t the blog be boring without a few heated discussions?
Love,
BanteringBear
SkrapGuy
Revi:
You accuse the people here who post what you don’t like of attacking other posters. You mean just like the way you are now attacking them now?
I agree with Mike Van H. Let’s let everybody share their comments. If the “negative vibes around this blog” here are so bad for you, just don’t read it. I would rather have robust debate than censorship Revi.
Reno Ignoramus
While it is apparently more fun for some people to impose their standards about how others ought to think and act, perhaps we can return to the subject of this blog, which I think is the Reno real estate market.
I’ve been looking at the median price decline, which is about 14-15% off the 2005 highs. But isn’t the decline effectively more than that? In 2005, how many sellers were paying buyers’closing costs? How many sellers were willing to perform thousands of dollars in repairs/maintenance as a prerequisite of the sale? How many sellers were offering vacations to their buyers?
All of these things erode the effective return to the seller, don’t they?
To Allen:
Ever since Diane first put this blog online over a year ago, I have repeatedly thanked her for her willingness to tell the truth about the market and not just be yet one more realtor shill site. I invite you to search back through the archives, as far back as they go, to verify this. Or, maybe you could just ask Diane herself about my contributions and gratitude. I invite you to do that.
Derrick
Yet another thread completely destroyed. nothing to do with the article it was intended for.. way to go guys.. boring… yawns…
BanteringBear
“I’ve been looking at the median price decline, which is about 14-15% off the 2005 highs. But isn’t the decline effectively more than that? In 2005, how many sellers were paying buyers’closing costs? How many sellers were willing to perform thousands of dollars in repairs/maintenance as a prerequisite of the sale? How many sellers were offering vacations to their buyers?
All of these things erode the effective return to the seller, don’t they?”
You’re correct RI. And I would also add that the median price does not take into consideration square footage. People are getting much more house for the price these days. As an example, while a sales price of $350k might have purchased a 1600 square foot home at the peak, it might get you something in the neighborhood of 2000 square feet now. Median price doesn’t tell the whole story.
BanteringBear
Mike Van H,
I think it’s fantastic what you are doing for your neighborhood, and the city as a whole. I admire you for it. One annoying side effect of the recent hyperinflation of prices and rampant speculation is that it leads to the deterioration of many neighborhoods, rather than fostering a sense of community. Foreclosures are BAD for neighborhoods, and the community in general. High vacancies lead to higher incidences of vandalism, and crime period. It’s good to hear there are people like you out there who are in it for the long haul.