January median sold price, units, DOM, $/sq.ft

Agent Insights Market Trends by Guy Johnson

$135,000?! Whoa! What happened to the median sales price in January?

January’s median sales price plummeted a whopping 12.9 percent from December’s median sales price — the largest 1-month drop we’ve ever seen. January’s median sales price was $135,000, and is so low, in fact, that looking through our MLS data back to 1998 (which is as far back as the MLS has data), I can not find a month that had a lower median sales price. February 1998 came close with a median sales price of $139,900, but last month’s median of $135,000 is 3.7 percent below even that — placing current home prices back to 1997 levels. [So much for hoping that October 2011’s $148,000 median may have been the bottom.]

So what could account for such a dramatic price drop?

Looking more closely at the data I see that distressed properties (REOs and short sales) comprised a greater portion of January’s monthly sales than we typically see. Over 40 percent of January’s sales were REOs, and 37 percent were short sales. Therefore, over 77 percent of January sales were distressed sales. That is a much higher percentage that we’ve observed recently. Compared the percentages of distressed sales in recent months.

  • Jan 2012: 77.4%
  • Dec 2011: 68.8%
  • Nov 2011: 69.4%
  • Oct 2011: 65.3%
  • Sep 2011: 65.7%

I believe that it is this greater number of distressed sales that drove down January’s median sales price. As further support for this theory, if we look at only the sales priced at or below the median price of $135,000, we find that 51 percent of those sales were REOs and 32 percent were short sales. These total to a whopping 83.4 percent being distressed (short sales and REOs).

January’s median sold price per square foot dropped nearly 6 percent to $80.85/sq.ft.

January’s other monthly metrics exhibited a performance similar to what we’ve observed in recent months. Units sold continue to be robust tallying an unprecedented 433 houses sold during January. The Reno-Sparks market has never seen that many houses sold in a January.

Average days on market, 144 days, continues to hover around five months.

The number of Active listings continue to slide. The current 1,170 Active listings represent a 16.6 percent decline from December’s 1,403 Active listings. Meanwhile, the number of Pendings continue to climb. January’s 1,643 Pendings now exceeds the number of Active listings by more than 28 percent.
January sales by type break out as follows:

  • REO sale: 40% – up from December’s 34%
  • Short sales: 37% – up from December’s 35%
  • Equity sales: 22% – down from December’s 30%

January sales by price band break out as follows in the table below. Note that nearly a quarter of the houses sold in January sold for less than $100,000; and 76% of January sales sold for less than $200,000.

sales price ($000’s) units sold
0 – 99 105
100 – 199 224
200 – 299 71
300 – 399 15
400 – 499 6
500 – 599 4
600 – 699 3
700 – 799 2
800 – 899 0
900 – 999 2
1M+ 1
total 433

For those readers who prefer the median sold price for houses and condos combined, January’s 504 sold houses, condos and town homes exhibited a combined median sold price of $125,000 – DOWN 13.7 percent from December’s combined median of $144,900 for 613 combined sales.

Historical data follows:

Month Year # Sold Sold Price Sold Price per Sq Ft Average DOM # of Actives # of Pendings
Jan 2012 433 $135,000 $80.85 144 1,170 1,643
Dec 2011 529 $155,000 $85.96 148 1,403 1,481
Nov 2011 495 $149,012 $85.02 146 1,545 1,635
Oct 2011 495 $148,000 $84.12 145 1,682 1,646
Sep 2011 574 $149,450 $83.73 133 2,044 1,967
Aug 2011 554 $154,000 $91.34 125 1,947 1,694
July 2011 511 $150,000 $87.59 128 2,028 1,667
June 2011 538 $154,000 $90.12 123 1,990 1,689
May 2011 510 $150,000 $88.66 133 1,968 1,682
Apr 2011 436 $156,125 $89.78 137 1,914 1,593
Mar 2011 511 $160,000 $91.59 132 1,906 1,497
Feb 2011 387 $161,000 $93.35 142 1,882 1,416
Jan 2011 365 $157,000 $92.35 152 1,970 1,329
Dec 2010 485 $165,000 $94.31 143 2,021 1,148
Nov 2010 398 $170,000 $96.43 139 2,060 1,376
Oct 2010 418 $174,950 $98.57 135 2,146 1,371
Sep 2010 467 $168,000 $97.52 132 2,186 1,473
Aug 2010 450 $180,000 $97.54 127 2,222 1,513
Jul 2010 415 $180,000 $101.84 128 2,158 1,580
Jun 2010 602 $170,000 $100.52 145 1,966 1,625
May 2010 450 $175,807 $102.37 138
Apr 2010 510 $179,995 $103.13 128
Mar 2010 477 $175,000 $99.14 141
Feb 2010 338 $170,000 $101.68 138
Jan 2010 346 $167,000 $97.06 134
Dec 2009 424 $178,000 $101.28 126
Nov 2009 461 $175,000 $103.61 112
Oct 2009 561 $180,000 $103.52 123
Sep 2009 520 $185,948 $103.31 128
Aug 2009 482 $179,900 $102.64 116
Jul 2009 515 $180,000 $103.45 126
Jun 2009 536 $180,317 $104.09 136
May 2009 426 $175,000 $102.29 139
Apr 2009 429 $190,000 $105.71 133
Mar 2009 369 $200,000 $105.85 133
Feb 2009 293 $205,000 $111.52 132
Jan 2009 233 $200,000 $113.04 117
Dec 2008 294 $218,950 $121.74 145
Nov 2008 269 $220,000 $122.24 152
Oct 2008 354 $230,000 $131.43 144
Sep 2008 358 $239,250 $136.72 145
Aug 2008 321 $250,000 $142.14 140
Jul 2008 397 $251,000 $145.48 139
Jun 2008 369 $262,500 $148.05 142
May 2008 314 $260,215 $152.30 134
Apr 2008 314 $275,000 $154.05 172
Mar 2008 238 $274,000 $150.93 166
Feb 2008 195 $289,000 $156.48 149
Jan 2008 165 $285,000 $170.23 146
Dec2007 228 $283,950 $167.22 143
Nov2007 204 $299,750 $172.24 126
Oct2007 241 $296,000 $173.55 116
Sep2007 230 $299,945 $179.46 114
Aug2007 311 $305,000 $182.49 118
Jul2007 300 $315,000 $189.78 113
Jun2007 329 $320,000 $196.78 104
May2007 364 $313,200 $190.81 107
Apr2007 320 $309,500 $193.93 121
Mar2007 324 $315,000 $189.61 121
Feb 2007 269 $315,000 $191.18 126
Jan 2007 245 $312,900 $199.79 133
Dec2006 291 $309,000 $193.51 114
Nov2006 281 $318,000 $197.32 111
Oct 2006 363 $312,400 $201.44 105
Sep2006 344 $314,950 $198.08 98
Aug2006 349 $325,000 $210.92 94
Jul2006 373 $335,000 $210.62 93
Jun2006 424 $339,000 $214.54 91
May2006 374 $339,950 $219.05 99
Apr2006 368 $334,600 $212.08 88
Mar2006 387 $340,000 $215.54 99
Feb 2006 283 $335,000 $217.29 101
Jan 2006 274 $365,000 $216.38 98
Dec2005 333 $355,000 $217.31 89
Nov2005 385 $349,000 $220.00 81
Oct2005 484 $359,450 $223.06 77
Sep2005 531 $354,500 $219.26 77
Aug2005 582 $360,500 $220.52 73
Jul2005 608 $353,000 $218.99 71
Jun2005 679 $350,000 $215.69 69
May2005 644 $333,250 $209.95 68
Apr2005 558 $326,750 $207.57 77
Mar2005 584 $325,000 $200.17 81
Feb 2005 342 $318,500 $197.54 88
Jan 2005 341 $310,000 $195.19 85
Dec2004 450 $312,500 $190.72 77
Nov2004 448 $309,950 $191.62 63
Oct2004 512 $299,250 $188.72 53
Sep2004 496 $292,750 $185.78 61
Aug2004 505 $285,000 $182.95 56
Jul2004 544 $304,300 $179.28 61
Jun2004 533 $285,000 $172.16 65
May2004 476 $278,750 $169.64 65
Apr2004 526 $259,950 $158.08 67
Mar2004 508 $245,000 $142.56 71
Feb 2004 365 $237,000 unavailable 81
Jan 2004 380 $228,500 unavailable 78
Dec2003 441 $240,000 unavailable 82
Nov2003 444 $220,750 unavailable 78
Oct2003 430 $219,880 unavailable 76
Sep2003 587 $223,000 unavailable 71
Aug2003 512 $220,000 unavailable 75
Jul2003 533 $210,000 unavailable 77
Jun2003 475 $207,000 unavailable 77
May2003 450 $198,950 unavailable 85
Apr2003 478 $197,750 unavailable 82
Mar 2003 428 $192,000 unavailable 77
Feb 2003 321 $186,895 unavailable 79
Jan 2003 316 $186,000 unavailable 96
Dec 2002 379 $193,500 unavailable 93
Nov 2002 423 $190,000 unavailable 82
Oct 2002 483 $189,900 unavailable 83
Sep 2002 410 $174,000 unavailable 85
Aug 2002 459 $180,000 unavailable 74
Jul 2002 469 $176,000 unavailable 83
Jun 2002 445 $185,000 unavailable 80
May 2002 470 $178,450 unavailable 77
Apr 2002 360 $169,500 unavailable 93
Mar 2002 377 $169,000 unavailable 84
Feb 2002 323 $170,900 unavailable 89
Jan 2002 269 $172,475 unavailable 99
Dec 2001 287 $182,000 unavailable 86
Nov 2001 323 $161,500 unavailable 85
Oct 2001 357 $166,500 unavailable 79
Sep 2001 355 $168,000 unavailable 81
Aug 2001 448 $160,350 unavailable 84
Jul 2001 433 $169,900 unavailable 90
Jun 2001 426 $166,225 unavailable 96
May 2001 404 $162,050 unavailable 97
Apr 2001 370 $158,750 unavailable 94
Mar 2001 385 $159,900 unavailable 97
Feb 2001 297 $159,950 unavailable 104
Jan 2001 264 $165,000 unavailable 102
Dec 2000 272 $156,500 unavailable 100
Nov 2000 355 $154,500 unavailable 93
Oct 2000 348 $153,000 unavailable 98
Sep 2000 356 $160,000 unavailable 104
Aug 2000 412 $163,375 unavailable 94
Jul 2000 368 $155,000 unavailable 110
Jun 2000 466 $165,845 unavailable 104
May 2000 363 $158,000 unavailable 105
Apr 2000 312 $155,000 unavailable 113
Mar 2000 339 $162,700 unavailable 102
Feb 2000 248 $148,000 unavailable 108
Jan 2000 223 $156,000 unavailable 113
Dec 1999 264 $155,000 unavailable 118
Nov 1999 293 $149,900 unavailable 98
Oct 1999 289 $147,895 unavailable 108
Sep 1999 311 $157,000 unavailable 106
Aug 1999 360 $148,500 unavailable 112
Jul 1999 375 $147,800 unavailable 105
Jun 1999 372 $150,000 unavailable 103
May 1999 307 $145,500 unavailable 106
Apr 1999 324 $151,700 unavailable 111
Mar 1999 308 $151,000 unavailable 121
Feb 1999 249 $148,900 unavailable 120
Jan 1999 210 $143,000 unavailable 115
Dec 1998 265 $140,000 unavailable 118
Nov 1998 280 $152,800 unavailable 126
Oct 1998 286 $142,825 unavailable 115
Sep 1998 279 $144,500 unavailable 102
Aug 1998 331 $145,000 unavailable 113
Jul 1998 335 $150,000 unavailable 108
Jun 1998 351 $148,500 unavailable 103
May 1998 302 $145,500 unavailable 99
Apr 1998 237 $148,000 unavailable 110
Mar 1998 271 $141,990 unavailable 115
Feb 1998 204 $139,000 unavailable 125
Jan 1998 167 $147,000 unavailable 129

Note: The medians table above is updated on a monthly basis. The median home price data reported covers the cities of Reno, Nevada and Sparks, Nevada [NNRMLS Area #100]. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built properties only. Data excludes Condo/Townhouse, Manufactured/Modular and Shared Ownership properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – February 2012. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

32 comments

  1. Free Falling

    Wow! The carnage continues. Bring back the Bantering Bear. At his gloomiest I don’t think his projections for market bottom were this low. I guess it is time to latch onto the 1170 active listings as a faint glimmer of hope that price increases aren’t so far away.

    I suspect that the further pricing deterioration may be related to the ludicrous AB 283. January closings are November contracts. Knowing that the banks’ ability to foreclose is stuck in limbo indefinitely, the asset managers running the distressed asset book have lost what little negotiating power they had in dealing with short sales. The sooner the grand poobahs in Carson City figure out how to fix AB 283, the better. If my theory is correct, the median sale price for short sales will have dropped much faster than that for REO or “Normal” sales.

  2. E.Edward

    Why buy today what can be bought tomorrow for less!

  3. Tim

    So, where is the boost to the economy? Total sales are at or better than levels seen during the bubble. At that time, the booming housing market was provided as a chief reason for the great economy.

    Now, we have similar sales numbers, and an economy that continues to get pummeled.

    Many might answer that there is no homebuilding, which spawned many jobs. However, plumbers, handymen, contractors, roofers, electricians, Home Depot/Lowes, etc… must have their hands full! Especially with the huge amount of distressed inventory being bought up each month! Or, is it all just “under the table”?

    Surely this stealth housing boom (not in prices, but in absolute sales) must be helping the larger economy in some way?

  4. Norton

    But, but, but…Guy, you have been telling us that inventory is so very low…..and that sales volume is higher than it was during the bubble…..and that buyers can’t even find a place to buy without having to engage in a bidding war…….and that surely this means that people will just pay more…..and pay cash……and that rising prices must inevitably be around the corner…..

  5. Cal

    How many times does it have to be said before the dimly lit and the barely glowing can get it……….reduced inventory does not mean prices will rise. If all a guy can pay is $150K, or $135K, then that is all he can pay. No, he is not going to pay $175K in cash when all he can pay is $150K, or $135K, no matter how few houses theere are for sale.
    And all of the tortious “analysis” and and cheerleader blah blah blah is not going to change the fact that if all a guy can pay is $135K, then all he can pay is $135K.

  6. Martin

    Wow, the median is now down 64% from the bubble high. The median price of a SFR in Las Vegas is now down to $125K. But of course that can’t happen here in Reno. No, of course it can’t. No way that can happen here. Really, the median here in Reno simply cannot continue to fall like in Las Vegas. Simply can’t happen. It’s different here in Reno. This is not Las Vegas. Nope. No way. They had an enormous bubble there, and they have awful unemployment…….

  7. Tom Joad

    64% down. That has to put Reno up there among the absolute worst housing markets in America over the past 6 years. Besides Las Vegas, is there a market anywhere that has dropped 64%? Truly, hats off to Nevada for the Biggest Bursting Bubble and the Weakest Job Market in the entire USofA.
    But it’s nice to know that the shill from the National Association of Homebuilders that was here in town serving up the kool-aid to the realtor types the other day says that really things are getting better. Who would know better than an “economist” paid by the Homebuilders Assoc. ??

  8. Westlake

    Face it folks. The housing market, and the economy, in Reno and the State of Nevada are still on their ass. There appear to be some positive indicators regarding the national economy, but this State is going to be the last one out of the Great Recession.

  9. MikeZ

    Wow. Maybe 30% isn’t so absurd!

  10. BanteringBear

    Well, what do you know? We hit my number.

  11. Sully

    A short trip down memory lane –

    Diane:
    A few months ago, you were calling bottom. Now, you’re buying into a “turnaround” in 2009, or 2010. Can you please qualify turnaround?

    It’s my personal opinion that Reno homes will never again see their 2005 home values. Sure inflation will, at some point, allow them to reach those levels again in nominal dollars, but never will they be so out of line with incomes.

    The idea that a seller can just pull their home off the market and wait for some magical turnaround in order to get their price is hysterical. They’re completely delusional. What they CAN expect is to lose another 20 to 30 percent should they decide to wait it out a few years. Make no mistake about it, if one wants to get the most out of their home, they need to sell at market value RIGHT NOW. Prices are dropping better than 1% a month, regardless of the median price reported. I’d love to make this a lengthy post, but I’m blogging from the front seat of my truck, so more later.

    Lastly, I had to laugh when I read about your prospective clients with $2m plus homes in Reno. These are $750k homes disguised in price as $2m homes. $2m to live in Tahoe? Sure. $2m home in Reno? Bwahahahahahahahaha! Let’s remember 3 Newlands Circle. It sold in the late 90’s for less than $600k which included a guest house. A quick look into our past reveals the future. Commence the housing price destruction.

    Posted by: BanteringBear | September 02, 2007 at 11:40 AM

  12. skeptical

    Sully,
    that was awesome. Truly a hall of fame post by the Bear. Nice to see him drop by, even if it was only for a one-liner.

    I predict we’ll never again see the outrageous fire fights between the likes of BB and Smarten (and others) again. Everyone is in the acceptance phase of this housing depression, and there is no one left to argue with BB. They all now realize that he was correct all along.

  13. Reno Ignoramus

    Yep, that’s correct. I remember when Bantering Bear said that he could imagine that the median would fall to $135K.
    Too bad Don C, and Smarten, Allen Murray, derrick, and the others are no longer around to congratulate the Bear.
    As one of the charter “hostile pessimists” on this blog, along with Lindie, GotLots, and the Bear, I say congratulations, Bear. Nobody said it better than you.

  15. Waldo

    Hey everybody, calm down. These January numbers are pre-Superbowl. Guy assures us that post-Superbowl, we are all going to have to put on our seatbelts there is going to be so much buyer activity. Yessir indeed. Hordes of buyers coming out of their pre-Superbowl slumber, engaging in bidding wars, paying cash, driving up prices, chasing after too few houses. Now, some of you may think Guy has been imbibing too much of the Chase kool-aid, but not me. I have my seatbelt tightened and can hardly wait for the skyrocketing prices.

  16. Reno Din0

    More signs of the times.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-suppliers-absent-from-builders-show-2012-02-07?dist=afterbell

    Need I remind anyone that Reno doesn’t have an economic base anymore. Use to be gambling and tourism, then development, and now nothing. (Warehousing can’t be your base.) I estimate the population from the peak has decline by 50,000. Young people are leaving town and the streets are empty at drive times. Cue the sound of crickets.

  17. Twister

    It looked to me like the sharp drop in prices was due to buyers, especially investors turning to the scrap heap of homes that nobody has wanted up to this point. The reason that I think they are looking through the scrap heap is because of the rapid reduction in inventory over the last several months as Guy has pointed out. When the heap gets depleted, the sharp drop in the number of sales of these low quality homes will no longer have such an impact on prices and the move up could be dramatic. Thanks for all your good work, Guy!

  18. Robin

    The housing market in Reno has become the old joke……….we may lose money on every sale, but we’ll make it up in volume.

  19. Waldo

    Yes Twister you are right! Once buyers, especially investors, run out of scrap heap houses, they will start engaging in bidding wars, and pay all cash, and drive up the prices for the few non scrap heap houses that will be left. Guy has explained all this to us. Now that the Super Bowl is past, it’s straight up from here, and I, for one, have my seat belt strapped on. Just like Guy said.

  20. skeptical

    RI,
    I was remiss in not including you along with my comments on BB. You’ve contributed mightily to this blog, and nailed the situation early and often. Thanks for all of your insightful comments and spot on analysis.

    So, where does the market go from here? Would like to hear your take.

    My opinion is that we muddle along for about 10+years. These bubbles take decades to work out. No one should be expecting a significant recovery until at least the 20’s. IMHO…Traffic patterns should remain accomodative for the forseeable future…

  21. GP

    Hi Everyone, I just want to chime in to say what Guy described regarding his experience with buying house in the South Meadow is true. I looked about 14 houses in last 2 months and I was outbid 4 times. I am looking for a moderate sized single story house for my parents. There was one time that I offered more than $100/sqft and I still was outbid. I am taking a breather now to gauge the market trend and avoid the bidding war.

  22. Twister

    Hey Waldo, except for the sarcastic drift you got it mostly right. One thing you got wrong though is some buyers are and have been paying cash for homes. I have talked to people who are buying up homes and then renting them out. Their are people with money out there like professionals, those who sold during the bubble, property management companies, etc… You just have to climb out of your bomb shelter and talk to some people.

  23. Waldo

    Yes, Twister, yes!
    I know that the cratering median is a total abberation, completely influenced by pre-Superbowl thinking. I’m with you! Seatbelt strapped on, and totally ready for the impact of hundreds and hundreds of all cash buyers to ” snap up” (as the realtors love to say) the very few remaining houses in Reno. I can hardly wait, Twister, and I know you share my enthusiasm.

  24. lurker

    Anybody paying cash for a place in this environment is nuts. Just refinanced my $400k loan at 3.75% and no points.

    Idiot banks just gave me 30 year money at 3.75%, and we wonder why they are so FUBAR. I’ll be laughing in about 5 years when interest rates are through the roof.

    FWIW…

  26. booch221

    Could someone please explain what “equity sales” are?

  27. Jack

    @ lurker

    I guess I’m one of those “stupid” people paying cash for properties. Like the one I closed on 4 months ago that has bun running at an 11% cap rate for 4 months now.

    Lmao the jokes on you!

  28. Rory

    Reno Dino, you are a sick sonofabitch. The way you continue to gleefully report more evidence of Reno’s continued demise suggests you may have a borderline personality disorder, or at the very least, sadomasochistic tendencies. Feel free to talk about the economy and market but don’t sound so smug and happy about the struggles of a community in dire need of good news.

  29. BanteringBear

    Are you still hemorrhaging equity, Rory?

  30. Rory

    @BB Isn’t everyone who lives in the 775?

  31. Gary

    I haven’t looked at this website in quite a few months, but did so just now on a lark. When I saw the $135K figure, the name “BanteringBear” instantly came to mind, even before I saw the comments. He may not have gone low enough, but for now, it’s the bottom. However, to be completely fair to any detractors, the original prediction contest in which he set that price wasn’t for the bottom but for the median price in Dec 2010. As some might argue with Nostradamus, Bear’s prediction may not have come to fruition in the original time frame envisioned, but bloodbaths like this can confound even the most gifted seers.

    I did a little Googling to come up with this link to the original thread:
    https://renorealtyblog.wpengine.com/2009/12/median-sales-price-%E2%80%93-let%E2%80%99s-hear-your-predictions-for-next-year.html

    Guy parsed through the comments and condensed the predictions into a chart:
    https://renorealtyblog.wpengine.com/2010/01/readers-predictions-for-december-2010%E2%80%99s-median.html

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