Each quarter our broker distributes the following charts for us agents to use as we see fit (pricing presentations, buyer consultations, etc.) I thought you might like to see the 3rd quarter numbers. (click on the charts to enlarge)
No real surprises here. Residential sales are down year-over-year in terms of units sold (16% decrease), $ volume (19% decrease), median price (7% decrease) and average price (4% decrease). However, the median condo price has actually increased 18% y-o-y.
James
The condo number doesn’t surprise me – condo markets tradinally lag the housing markets in both price gains and losses. If you really want to read into this number, then you could argue that the condo number would indicate that we are nowhere near the bottom of this market and at least a few years off from this “soft landing” people are hoping for.
BanteringBear
James posted:
“The condo number doesn’t surprise me – condo markets traditionally lag the housing markets in both price gains and losses.”
I am under the impression that condo values are the last to rise and first to fall. Interesting that you feel differently. Although I haven’t looked at each individual condo sold, I would have to bet that some recent high dollar condo sales are skewing the median upward since lower end condo prices are in a freefall.
GreenNV
Palladio closed 41 units during the 3rd quarter, enough in itself to skew all the condo stats in this slow market. 26 below $500,000, 15 above, but all well above the median / average.
I humbly beg to differ with BB on low end condo prices in free fall. Developers have significantly cut their asking prices back to more “reasonable” levels (one of my jobs to to set up apartment-to-condo conversions, and trust me, no one is in the major hurt position yet). Resales are basically tracking along with the SFR stats – down, but not huge yet except in specific cases.
But I’m not one to suggest that 16’/second/second isn’t one of the possible outcomes here.
Where were all you chicken-shits last night? I was waiting for the Derrick/Lindie “Coyote” dance on the bar!
GreenNV
PS:
I track the Palladio and have an Excel spreadsheet with asking prices for new units, sales prices, and date of Purchase Agreements. Public records aren’t 100% and either are my Excel skills, but it is reasonably interesting for RE geeks. email me at mike@macassociates.com if you would like a copy of the file to date.
And to be fair, they had the “red face, botulism victim” seting on the camera last night.
BanteringBear
When I mention low end condos, I am referring to resales, not new construction. And yes, their prices are very spongy to say the least.
P.S. The 750 mile drive was a bit much, so I couldn’t make the get together. It’s unfortunate, as I would have loved to debate the mortgage queen. You know, the one who has been doing her best to prop up area prices.
Move to Reno?
Guy, I looked at your charts but didn’t see any 3rd Quarter stats. What I did see was the numbers for the first 3 quarters of 2007 compared to the first 3 quarters of 2006.
The mortgage collaspe in July basically is the new set point for the market going forward, especially since NV’s requirement for all mortgages to be “stated income” started October 1st.
Just a matter of time before the current home pricing structure falls like a house of cards. Most sellers are in denial. Buyers are wiser now and are waiting, knowing that they are in the driver’s seat.
tabbycattx
Not real mortgage savvy —what is “stated” income? Thanks.
MikeZ
RE: “what is “stated” income?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stated_income_loan
Move to Reno?
I should have posted that the new NV law that went into effect on 1 October requires mortgages to be fully documented and that “stated income” mortgages are “the good old days”.
2sleepy
I just found this in the WSJ online
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-SUBPRIME07.html