Much positive news from September’s Market Condition Report presented by First Centennial Title. Prices up, inventory steady, escrows up, failures down. Click on the report to enlarge.
…from the report:
OVERVIEW: Activity slows as market transitions into the fall-winter cycle. Prices appear to have bottomed in the short term at or near current levels.
SUPPLY (ON MARKET): Continues to hold very steady in the current range with little meaningful deviation (for the 8th month).
DEMAND (SOLD PER MONTH): Demand declined for both SFR and Condo. FAILURES (EXPIRE-WITHDRAW): The rate of failure for SFR was over estimated in September. The current result corrects that figure.
IN ESCROW (FUTURE CLOSINGS): Up slightly from September.
PERCENT SELLING: Due to the adjustment in failures, Percent Selling increased from 54% to the current 63% for SFR, and 54% to 48% for Condo. Expect the measure to remain at this level or gradually decline.
MONTHS SUPPLY: This key measure is on the increase implying and reinforcing the idea that the market has peaked in terms of closed transactions at or near the current level.
MARKET SPEED: Market Speed has slowed for both types. The pace of the Reno market (which was increasing) is now slowing. The best performing Reno submarket remains Fernley, returning a Market Speed of 38 (down from 50 last month). The slowest is Yerington at a very sluggish 7.
PRICES: Both SFR and Condo returned median price increases. Expect an up and down trend from month to month. Large changes in price should not be expected, while relatively small diminishing negative shifts are more likely. This trend is generally in line with other markets surveyed.
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Bear,
I took the liberty of reading some old posts, as you requested in one of your rants, and as referred to by CL.
These occassions gave me confidence that you probably are BanteringBear, although I had begun to wonder. You seemed much angrier and more personal than you were before your break. I was mistaken. You were angry and launched personal attacks three years ago. So you are probably the legit Bear.
On a number of occassions back then, Diane Cohn implored you to stop the personal invective, or she would terminate the thread. It had a salutory affect. You stopped. You seemed to have respect for Diane. Has her absence caused you to regress and step up your vicious personal attacks?
Could you take another look at your postings and possibly rethink your approach? I value this blog incredibly. I don’t want this great resource to go away or get devalued.
BB, for the sake of yourself and the rest of us, stick to the facts and keep up your insightful commentary, and stay away from the personal attacks.
CommercialLender
BB,
‘Enough said’ depends on who is being wronged. I’m not an arbiter of ‘hate’, ‘hatred’ or of negative comments directed at you, nor do you need me to defend you. My assertion is and has remained that a public debate that devolves into name-calling rather than solid logic or facts to substantiate one’s position does not leave the public any good discourse from which they can derive relevant information. Like their comments or not, I encourage anyone to counter them with good and relevant information and sound logic so that we may all derive some benefit. If the shoe fits them in this name-calling, then my comments fit them right back.
When you resort to slandering me by characterising me with extreme and adverse social and personal traits such as hate, vitriol and hypocrisy, and now my industry colleagues with bitterness and anger, you don’t make a point about the topic at hand, nor of real estate in general, but of yourself.
As it relates my business, I can only speak for those in my industry as lenders, mortgage bankers and borrowers of commercial loans. You apparently seem to be qualified in my area, too. I can emphatically state ‘bitterness’ and ‘anger’ are nowhere to be found here. Nowhere at all (many other things, but not those). Feel free to give your examples to support your choice of harsh words in this area, too.
****
I apologize to the rest of the readers on this blog who have been hijacked by this string of comments today. I’m not qualified nor do you need me to be some comment officer. I’m done now! Back to spirited debate about Reno/Tahoe real estate… Montage anyone? 🙂
smarten
Thank you CL. I share your views concerning different strata of the Reno/Sparks residential real estate market. And that was my point earlier. When one makes a blanket statement concerning the “bottom” of the market and one doesn’t define his/her definition of the term, the statement is meaningless. To coin a phrase, one man’s bottom is another’s spouse.
In response to Martin’s earlier question: “how come everybody who suggests that the bottom has arrived absolutely ignores the thousands and thousands of houses in the foreclosure process?” There is no ignoring Martin. Exactly what strata of the market are you talking about when you make the assertion there are thousands and thousands of houses in foreclosure? If those foreclosures involve mortgages in excess of $350K and I’m a buyer in the under $180K strata of the market, what difference do they make to me?
And when we accuse commentors of ignoring the “thousands and thousands of houses in foreclosure,” how about those who ignore data such as the increased median sales price [for how many months?]; the increased number of monthly sales; the dropping of DOMs; the increased absorption rate; the leveling off/increasing of the sales price/square foot; etc? You see, we tend to rely upon whatever data suits our personal beliefs.
Finally, a personal request of BB. Remember your New Year’s Resolution? For the first six months of this year I felt you were making tremendous progress and I for one appreciated it. But lately, I fear you’ve gone backwards. FWIW, you don’t need to take comments directed to you so personally. You don’t need to respond to every Tom, Dick, Harry or Derrick who challenges one or more of your comments. And you don’t need to “hammer the last word” on an argument. Chill out a bit.
Paul
As a long time bear, I have noticed a huge change in the sub-200k Reno market in the last few months. In areas like Sommersett, S Meadows, even Cold Springs for that matter, the vast majority of >200k listings (most are short sale / REO) are sale pending. The fact is, this is a huge reversal from last year. To get an accepted offer on a short or REO, the buyer MUST provide a pre-approval letter and often proof of available funds. With buyers thus vetted by the seller (bank) prior to going into contract, it seems logical that a large percentage of these deals will actually close. The large volume of sales has also stopped the depreciation at the low end and created a price floor (unless interest rates shoot up – certainly not impossible). An element of the price floor is that its now often more expensive to rent. This floor does not yet exist in the upper end of the market or Incline. Executive homes have historically had a lower rent yield than bread and butter housing, but I think – particularly in Incline – there’s still air coming out of the balloon.
BanteringBear
Future posted:
“On a number of occassions back then, Diane Cohn implored you to stop the personal invective, or she would terminate the thread. It had a salutory affect. You stopped.”
She wasn’t only directing that towards me. You drew the conclusion you wanted to arrive at, and you know it. If you want to draw my ire, get in line, but quit misrepresenting the situation. As a future buyer, I’m your friend. But get on my bad side, and you won’t enjoy me.
All of these attempts to coerce me to change my behavior do nothing. Until you guys get a spine, and address the real problem- haters like RagingBullsh!tter, Downer, Derrick, etc., piling on me like little schoolyard bullies who only have strength in numbers, I cannot take any of you seriously. It’s rather pathetic how you jump in with the pack of wolves.
DocMD
Thank you for the good insights and solid entertainment. I am looking at the possibility of purchasing a propety in “IV at this has clearly been informative. The problem is that it is very difficult to pursue such as purchase when I believe we are in for a long road in this economic recovery.
For all those bulls out there you really may want to consider a few things about the current economic backdrop;
There have been about 10 recessions in the U.S. since WWII. This is not your typical post WWII recession. The is a post-bubble credit collapse that was triggered by excessive debt accumulation and the central banks’s willingness to tolerate years of excessive risk-taking and parabolic asset inflation. History does not look fondly at these type of post bubble credit collapse environments.
We may well be in for a quarter or two of positive GDP growth in the U.S. courtesy of unprecented government intervention but history councils caution. We are at nearly 10% unemployment and the personal savings rate is headed towards double digits–>very deflationary. How can you have inflation with this type of slack in the economy?
In the 3rd quarter there were 937,000 foreclosure filings in this country, a 23% increase from the 3Q 2008. If you are a buyer in this market I have a few words of advice;
Do your homework and make sure you have a “margin of safety” in your purchase price and plenty of time horizon to benefit from this low rate environment that will likely get lower.
Doc-
CommercialLender
Welcome DocMD,
Which recession is most analogous to our current, in your opinion? You mention “post-bubble credit collapse”. I see very few credit driven recessions but the Great Depression and I believe the 1909(?) one (early 1900’s). If possible, what happened to the housing market in the 1-3 years immediately following the bottom and what effects did inflation and rates play? Much thanks.
downtownjunkie
-PAUL-
I have experienced the same thing. These are buyers with little to no cash with a chance to buy a somewhat affordable house. If this funny money goes away..watch out below.
DownButNotOut
BB -‘As a future buyer, I’m your friend. But get on my bad side, and you won’t enjoy me.’
More threats??? get help dude.
You tried to take your best analytical/ psychological shot at me earlier.
There wasn’t anything you surmised right. Not surprising though.You have deep ingrained preconceived notions.
So how about my turn?
You’re mid 30’s.
Raised by your mother.
Had to move a lot, renting and low income jobs being the biggest reason.
Local HS, Community College, never graduated.
Above average testing, but never a lot of guidance, mostly due to not having a father figure around.
In and out of trouble, even though your teachers felt you had tons of potential, none would commit.
Moved from job to job- Reason; each previous employer not respecting what you felt you really brought to the table.
No friends moved with you.
Currently trying to connect with the happiest times in your life- growing up in Reno.
Recently divorced- spent the last three months incarcerated from a restraining order, therefore not able to post.
No skin in the game, but consider yourself an advocate for the first time buyer/ blue collar worker
Now, you ask yourself – why is everyone such idiots they don’t listen to me?
BanteringBear
Let’s see how you did, Downer.
Wrong
Right
Wrong
Wrong
Right, Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong
Somewhat
Wrong
Failed miserably. You don’t know jack about me. I could sit next to you at an Aces game, and you’d think I was the nicest guy you ever met. Funny, really.
DownButNotOut
‘I could sit next to you at an Aces game, and you’d think I was the nicest guy you ever met. Funny, really’
Do you really believe that? Step away from the bong. Stop drinking the Koolaid. Delusional comes to mind.
Or – am I as wrong about you as you are about me? Hmmmmm. Really makes for an interesting thought.
Neither of us know shit but surmise to?
Take a break.
BanteringBear
You can call me any name in the book, Downer, it doesn’t bother me. The fact is, nobody here really knows one another. The only people who go out on a limb are Diane, Guy, and Mike, and I admire them for that. I guess somebody “outed” Smarten- I never learned who he was- but that’s not important to me. I think everyone has a right to remain anonymous. I need to. Some of my opinions are in direct conflict with the financial interests of many of my friends, acquaintances, and even some family. I know a lot of people in Reno, and I’m not interested in burning bridges.
The reason I left the blog recently (and will be scarce going forward) is that I’ve tired of battling the shills, I don’t have the time I used to, and I’ve lost a bit of interest in the Reno market. The whole thing cratered, and it’s over. Sure, there’s likely another leg down, but the damage is already done. No way to put lipstick on that pig. Everything that Reno Ignoramus, SkrapGuy, and all of the other bright individuals here have predicted and posted over the years has come to pass.
Why did I fight the fight? I’ve never had patience for shills- of any kind. I don’t care if it’s houses, insurance, lending, the stock market, used cars- whatever, I just hate sleazy, greedy people talking up their book to fatten their own wallet. That’s not honest business, to me. I wanted people to know the truth, and to not buy into the hype. If I saved even ONE person money, it was all worth it- every single post.
What transpired over the course of the past few decades in this country was despicable, IMO. It’s really struck a chord with me because it has hollowed out the entire economy. We’re basically in ruin right now. A recent commenter posted that I believed in the depression scenario, talking as if it couldn’t happen, nevermind the fact we’re already in it. I just read that the unemployment level increased in Washoe County this past month to more than 13%. This is calculated in a MUCH more conservative manner than during the Great Depression. If we were to use that formula, Reno is pushing 20%, and that says nothing about all the illegal alien labor sitting idle. And there it stands. Recovery? Where?
tired of waiting
BB
I think you should take a look at the business cycle.
let me spell it out for you or anyone not sure.
peak,recession,trough,recovery in that order
if you take a look back 100 years this cycle has ALWAYS repeated itself, and will do so again, and again and again and again.
further, the only way for the Real estate market to stabilize is to let supply/demand come back in to balance, then the market will discover its equilibrium price, unemployment will slowly come down AFTER the recovery. the reason it comes down AFTER is because once the economy starts recovering most companies will RAISE the hours of the employees that had their hours cut. That is why the unemployment rate will not see any improvement, but the average work week will (leading indicator)
With the median price at 180k the average person in reno CAN afford to buy. Add in an 8,000 tax credit and its even sweeter. I also believe it will be extended.
I could draw a graph with x,y axis but Im assuming most understand this to be elementary economics.
tired of waiting
I will say, with the banks holding many properties off the market we will see upward pressure on prices. however, these properties will eventually hit the market sometime in the future.
I don’t expect a V shaped recovery, more like bumping along the bottom for the next year or 2. Having said that you can still buy a home RIGHT NOW that is just as nice as those that will be hitting the market in 2 years. the difference? mortgage rates will most likely be higher in 2 years, AND that nice little tax credit will most likely be GONE. It is also my belief that inflation WILL be a factor in 2 years.
how much of a deal do you people really expect to get if in 2 years inflation clocks in at 4%, mortgage rates at 7%, and ofcourse NO $8,000 tax credit?
IMO $75sqft< is a deal, book it.
BanteringBear
I don’t need for you to spell out the business cycle for me, tired. If I want a tutorial in economics, I dust off the old college text. I don’t believe we’re at the trough- we’re still going down. The road to the bottom is never a straight line. We’re in a dead cat bounce period, for lack of a better term. Familiarize yourself with Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.
And, when I mention recovery, I am talking about housing. Housing doesn’t lead an economic recovery, it follows it. Housing cannot recover until jobs do. I don’t care what the median affords, if there are record unemployment numbers, it’s bad news for housing. Put that in your economic text and smoke it, shilly.
skeptical
BB,
Those last couple posts of yours were vintage.
If you need a shill to lampoon, look no further than http://renohomevoices.com/2009/10/20/google-hands-over-the-deed-to-reno-bank/
This guy brags about calling the bottom last spring. His latest is a big, long line where he brags about getting all the google hits for reno bank owned homes.
Tired,
I wish to God that this were an ordinary, run of the mill recession, and that the normal business cycle would just play itself out. Unfortunately, the scale is unprecedented and the effects will be felt by your grandkids, imho.
Everybody has their reasons to buy or not. Believing everything is just going to be fine and dandy in a year or two is likely not a good reason.
nvmojo
…still renting. Money in the bank and in gold from when we sold our house 3.5 years ago in Elko. Looks like we won’t be buying this year. Why? We both need to see how secure our jobs will be in a year. We also wonder about the impact of that “shadow inventory”.
At least rent is cheaper than when we moved here.
Move to Reno
BB, give those shills hell.
They deserve a good verbal lashing.
Irv
“peak,recession,trough,recovery in that order”
This has been true historically, and a chartist would project it into the future. However, the FED and the Administration + Congress are causing fundamental changes to the structure of the economy, which are so dramatic that reliance upon historical modeling is not helpful. I foresee a disintegrating dollar, bringing devastation of savings to those with U.S. currency-denominated cash equivalent funds and accounts; unemployment increasing — and the true unemployment level is several points higher than the government states, because those who have quit looking or are working part-time only are not included; and an increase in all taxes, as state and federal spending continues to increase.
Globalization economics has resulted in raising the standard of living of emerging market nations on the backs of American workers, whose standard of living will decrease continuously in future years. We are destined to have two classes of Americans–the very wealthy, living in suburban gated communities, who have enough net income or resources left after taxes to sustain their lifestyles, and the lower level, who will have so little left that they shall live modestly on tight budgets, in condos, apartments, and small detached homes on small lots. There will be no middle. We are headed toward what Mexico is today, with enclaves of wealthy in secure suburbs of places like Guadalajara and Mexico City, and millions of the masses living from month-to-month everywhere else. This is unfortunately the politically incorrect truth of the matter, I wish it weren’t so.
I don’t whether to buy now or not, sorry, it will take a wiser man than I to make any helpful conclusions on that point.
Move to Reno
Irv, if you believe that the dollar is going to hell in a hand basket, don’t you think it would be smart to buy now while the dollars are worth something. After all, real estate tends to keep up with inflation.
Sully
Move, where are you currently located? Silicon Valley?
Prior to the boom (2003) Reno real estate was almost flat lining, very slight year over year increase. In 2003, it started to move rapidly upwards. Zillow doesn’t go back far enough, but if you find a house that was built before 2000 and go to the ten year chart, you will see a very,very slight upward trend in pricing before 2003, not near enough to keep up with inflation.
NAR claims real estate increases 6% a year and beats the stock market, blah blah blah. All you have to do is look at how far the median has fallen in the last two years here, to see that isn’t true.
Irv
Move-to-Reno, I think my personal choice would be two-fold: First, Rent that house, plus Second, concurrently put the money I would have used to purchase the house, into a combination of things: a fund something like Fidelity’s select China market portfolio; a Pacific basin emerging market fund; U.S. consumer staples/necessities funds of any major issuer; and a bio-chemical/health/pharmaceuticals sector fund.[Health science bio-tech being the primary economic sector I view as left open for growth for the U.S. ecoconomy.] Then a few years later, after your funds have grown in inflated value more than the house you are renting, buy that house or one like it, and pocket the excess. That house may appreciate over time but it likely won’t keep up with the growth of those particular funds, because the house is limited in upside marketability by the average incomes of those living in its neighborhood–and the funds don’t have that limitation. Problem with my game plan on this point — it only works for people young enough to play it out; seniors don’t have time to run the play. This is just my opinion– nobody truly knows what is going to happen, not even our leaders in Washington–no, I think especially not our leaders in Washington.
BanteringBear
“Countries with the Biggest Gaps Between Rich and Poor”
“No. 3 U.S.”
“The share of income for the top percentile of Americans was 23.5% in 2007, the highest since 1928, according to Emmanuel Saez, a Berkeley economist who won the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal in April. Income for the top 0.01% hit a record-high 6.04%. And the recession may be exacerbating income inequality.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/107980/countries-with-the-biggest-gaps-between-rich-and-poor
Josh
I have not seen any discussion of the implications of the buying pool being somewhat depleted for the winter buying season. It has been noted here that there has been a hard sell to buy before the tax credit expires. That and the much lower prices from the peak has prompted a lot of fence sitters to buy, mostly at the low end. This supply of buyers will be exhausted in 2 months. I visualize it as a sponge that has been wrung out.
I am wondering if this abnormal depletion of buyers who were waiting for their opportunity, combined with the normal winter real estate doldrums will cause the median to decline Jan-Mar?
DocMD
“peak,recession,trough,recovery in that order”
Tired-
You are making a misinformed assumption that this is your typical post WWII recession. Almost all of the 10 recessions since WWII have been fed-induced excess inventory recessions caused by the Fed raising rates. These were more shallow, shorter term in nature and indeed more of a “natural business cycle”. Again, the major difference with this recession vs. all other post WWII recessions is the this is a post bubble credit collapse rececession. WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A SECULAR (10-15 year) CREDIT CONTRACTION. There has been 14 Trillion in household wealth destroyed. We may get a few quarters of reprieve due to the enormous amounts of “medication” that has been administered to the patient. However, this recession has all too much in common with the 1837, 1873, and 1929 time periods.
A must read is the attached article in the New York times from last weekend which will get a better understanding of why this will likely not end any time soon. It should also clear up why we are not getting inflation (despite enormous federal steroids into the system)! And if we are getting inflation then we are getting deflation (which is not good for any kind of debt as the cost to service that debt increases incrementally).
DOC
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/17/business/17nocera.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
Sully
Doc; And if we are getting inflation then we are getting deflation
I think you meant to say we are not getting inflation. Don’t matter though, I agree with you.
tired of waiting
umm the CPI DOUBLED in the last 2 months, and is widely expected to increase AGAIN, when they report the numbers on novermber 18th.
those of you who don’t think we have inflation creeping up on us already better think again.
BanteringBear
“umm the CPI DOUBLED in the last 2 months, and is widely expected to increase AGAIN, when they report the numbers on novermber 18th.”
So, Derrick has yet another monkiker. How many does this make, Derrick, 15? What are you hiding from? Could it be that you have zero credibility, so you try using multiple identities to agree with yourself in order to appear as if you have support? Pathological…
bob c
the most unique thing i’ve noticed is
the perma-bulls i know are seriously doubting
this recent spike and recovery (wealthy, successful bulls)
Move to Reno
Sully, I currently live in Tahlequah, Oklahoma, where, according a realtor I talked to yesterday, the market is flat because the buyers want a lower price and the sellers don’t want to sell at those prices. Foreclosures are rare here because we never had a real estate boom. I also have a house near Annapolis Maryland. Fortunately, both of my houses are paid for.
I agree that location determines the value of real estate because it is a supply and demand product, but as a general rule real estate does follow inflation over time in a normal market.
Sully
tired, we may well have. But, how do you figure true inflation when the CPI basket has been changed so many times in the last 20 yrs?
Computers are cheaper because they are faster, even though the price doesn’t reflect that. Homes were going up too fast, so take them out and use rent instead.
You need a super computer and very good memory to see where we really are in relation to historical norms.
skeptical
For those of you who think that the 1st time homebuyer tax credit giveaway will end in November, please put down the bong and read the following:
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/10/20/industry-groups-call-on-senate-for-tax-credit-extension/
“Representatives from three real estate trade groups — the same trio that on Monday sent a letter to leaders in Washington calling for the extension and expansion of the first-time homebuyer tax credit — testified before the Senate Banking Committee on the status of the nation’s housing market and the need for the extended credit…”
Not mentioned in the article is the >$12M the NAR spends annually to rent congress. Link below a bit dated, but you get the picture:
http://chartingtheeconomy.com/?cat=24
DocMD
Tired,
Let’s not only miss the forest while looking at the trees. I would not interpret a doubling of CPI from very depressed levels as a signal that inflation is ready to rear it’s ugly head. Inflation is not in the cards in the near term as the personal savings rate (% of income saved by all US consumers) has gone from 0% in 2007 to 6.5% and is headed towards double digits. This will ultimately be a good thing for the economy years (creating pent up demand) from now but will cause a much longer period of economic malaise than most believe. This coupled with a unemployment rate that will go higher than 10% and most importantly a change in mindset of the US consumer from a frivolous society to one one of a frugalality will have long lasting effects. I am not suggesting that property deals cannot be found (because they can) but let’s not get caught up in a near meaningless uptick in CPI. I would be careful to mistake goverment steroid induced growth for real organic growth–>big difference.
Separately, if it is the stock market move that has the bulls feeling good then don’t forget this could very well be a massive head fake. Japan’s Nikkei stock index was at 38,000 in 1989 and has enjoyed four 50%+ rallies over the last 20 years and is still down 70% from 1989 levels…ouch.
Steve Herschbach
Hi,
How about a perspective from far away?
I have lived in Alaska my entire life. I’m getting older, and the winters are starting to get a bit tiresome. So my wife and I have been looking around for awhile.
We have a daughter in Reno, so that is a plus. But ultimately I just like the place. Centrally located in the western US. Coming from Alaska I’m like a kid in the candy store with roads going in all directions. I’m a prospector, and Reno is right in the middle of gold country with opportunities in all directions.
A few years ago if I had sold my place in Anchorage it the money would buy a place half the saize in Reno. It was obvious to me things were out of whack as historically housing in Anchorage has cost more than elsewhere. But we sat out the housing bubble up here. Prices did not go up much, and the big win is that now they are not coming down much. And the ratio is back to where it should be. My house here is now worth more than comparable properties in Reno.
We just flew down and spent four days driving around. We walked all around downtown – went on the Wine Walk! I was impessed by how clean the downtown area is after witnessing the filth that is the Strip in Vegas. Effort has obviously gone into making the downtown area better, and I like the civic pride that displays on the part of at least some people in Reno.
We looked at everything from Mogul to Fleur De Lis. Old Southwest is simply lovely. We can’t use brick in Anchorage due to the earthquake issue. The fall colors were near peak and it was a pleasure to simply drive and look. In Alaska people take less care of their yards (why bother – they are froze half the year) and everything I saw down there makes everything up here look dull and dinghy.
When I look at Google Real Estate it looks like all of Reno is for sale. But that did not look to be the case driving around. In established areas for sale signs were hard to find. Only in the overbuilt new areas was there an appearance of everything being for sale.
We are not looking to move for years and so it is not like I have to do something right now. But from my perspective prices look attractive and interest rates low. I’m not too worried about buying something and the price dropping some more as I intend to keep what I buy. As long as I’m happy with what I get and feel the price is fair at the time I’m ok. My main fear is that interest rates have got to go up in the near future when the fed starts sucking the excess liquidity out of the system. Just my opinion there – I’m no expert. But I’m more interested in locking in a good interest rate than screwing a seller out of a few more thousand dollars.
So there you go. A guy thousands of miles away looking to buy something during the winter doldrums. Maybe $300,00 to $350,000. I’ll probably just rent it out to some of my daughters friends for cheap to have somebody in it.
Is the market at a bottom? Heck if I know. But seems good enough for me. I might wait and do better but my gut tells me the timing is right. This country has been down and out before. Remember the doom and gloom of Jimmy Carter and the Japanese taking over the world? Seems like a replay these days, except now it is the Chinese that are supposed to be knocking us to second place. But just like then I suspect better days are ahead and the US is not out yet. I’m a contrarian kind of guy and since everyone is selling I guess it is time for me to buy.
The real point I want to make is I wonder how many people there are like me and the others from outside Nevada who are thinking of stepping in now? Are there enough of us to matter? I’m looking to retire in Reno, bring my life savings there, and spend it locally the rest of my life. Reno would do well to start pointing out to retirees what a nice place it really is.
Or so it seems to me. I like Reno. You folks have a nice town and should be proud of it. Once I get there some day I’ll jump in and do what I can to be a downtown booster.
Steve Herschbach
Sully
High end capitulating?
Fresh out today from Mitchs list:
mls 90016075. Zillow has this at 2 mill
Bank wants 900,000 = 133/ft built 2005.
reno newbie
http://www.freenevadamove.com/idx/residential/90016075/details.html taxes 16
DownButNotOut
SH from Alaska – I ask myself the same question; What’s wrong with this place? I had lunch downtown today and was thoroughly impressed with the food, the service, and with everyone around me that I sat with.
The climate’s great. Proximately to the Bay Area is perfect. I have some business in Carson City Friday. Lower taxes,, etc.
So I ask – what’s the problem that is keeping the Reno area down? Poor Government? Unabated building? Unestablished downtown? Legalized gambling and Ranches? Isn’t all of that just less government?
I’m like you RH – I see Reno as a great place. How many others do? Good question.
Sully
So I ask – what’s the problem that is keeping the Reno area down?
Start with 11 year downturn in tourism, resulting in lower tax revenues (gaming, sales) resulting in lower revenues to cities and schools.
Add a dash of overbuilding and a high unemployment rate.
Pour a whole lot of foreclosures over the mix and let it sit for awhile.
In the meantime – sit on your heinie and wait for the government to send help serving it.
There is nothing wrong with the Reno area, that the Reno area can’t fix. But, to fix anything the first step is to get started!
Therein lies the problem. NO one apparently wants to pick up the ball and run with it.
I Like Reno
I’m gald to see the positive comments on Reno. Most posters and lurkers here likely agree, or they wouldn’t care enough about Reno real estate to read this blog.
It bears pointing out, however, that this is in contrast to many posts from Guy’s thread of 18 Oct “TICOR Title Charts for September.” Lots of Reno bashing in that thread, led by Dirtbagger and thoroughly supported and backed by DBNO, among others.
So, which DBNO are we dealing with today? They one who hates Reno and thinks it’ll never compete with California, or the one that “see[s] Reno as a great place.”
Maybe that’s what’s wrong with Reno. Mixed up folks like DBNO who don’t see Reno for what it is — a great town in a great location with great possibilities. It ain’t the only place in the country with significant problems in this economy, but it will eventually come back.
DownButNotOut
I Like Reno – So what did you originally post under? 133 responses to the Ticor thread lead us a lot of directions. My review of it showed me no ‘Reno bashing’ by DBNO.
Be specific if you have a point. Or post under you real name.
I Like Reno
Thread: Ticor Title Charts for Sept:
Note: Dirtbagger started a rather long discussion with a long diatribe (20 Oct, 2:17pm), bemoaning the subpar quality of Reno’s labor force and railed against Reno’s “Casino Mentality.” He further commented that Reno locals were angry and resentful against outsiders. He let all know he was looking forward to leaving Reno and moving back to Southern California. He began his soapbox by defending DBNO against BB, which may partially explain DBNO’s follow ups in support of Dirtbagger and against Reno.
DBNO (20 Oct, 6:03pm): “Haven’t the statistics that have been shown the last few days made anyone realize this will always be the last place in the Country [sic] to recover from the recession/ depression unless you change your attitude????……
As Sully suggests, I may do a lot more research as to the labor pool before I relocate to Reno.”
DBNO (20 Oct, 7:10pm): “Sorry but I just read my business future in Dirtbaggers [sic] experience and I’m going to look closely at not making the same mistake.”
Finally, following my opinions regarding Reno, DBNO replies:
DBNO, 20 Oct 7:49pm:”Well there’s your demographic. Hope he can procreate.”
DownButNotOut
ILR – Ah, in your last statement is where the acrimony lies. Offended huh?
You wrote:
Lots of Reno bashing in that thread, led by Dirtbagger and thoroughly supported and backed by DBNO, among others.
Read your quotes again. That wasn’t bashing that was telling it like it is, from both our experiences. If you dispute what dirtbagger or I wrote, tell me what part. I hate to tell you but Reno is going to be one of the last places that rebounds from a Real Estate standpoint. Do you dispute that??? Then say so and why.
Don’t call our experience truthfully told bashing. If anything it is constructive criticism that should be looked at from a community leadership standpoint as what might be improved in the City.
Maybe instead of pointing to us, why don’t you tell everyone how you contribute to Reno and what you’d do to fix the problems?
Steve Herschbach
Hi,
Well, it sure is not just Reno having problems these days. Yo might feel better by comparison if you look at Detroit.
A few years ago if I were looking to move south I’d have gone elsewhere since housing in Reno was so inflated. Now the pricing is such that I’ve decided Reno is the place. You are getting back to where another plus Reno can tout is “affordable housing”. I’m just one person but I am sure there are others. It will take time but prices will stabilize eventually. I’d rather see a stable market then the crazy bubbles that always end with a huge hangover. Especially since it always seem to be me they want to tax to fix these messes!
Steve Herschbach