Thank you to our friends at First Centennial Title for providing April’s Market Condition Report below. Click on the report below to view.
From the Report:
- OVERVIEW: Closings increased again in April boosting Market Speed. Prices have firmed for both types and are on the rise. Buyers who have been sitting on the fence should make their move now. See from the graph that even though the long term price trend has been negative since mid 2006, prices have now bottomed and are beginning to rise.
- SUPPLY (ON MARKET): Off about 300 units for SFR and 40 units for Condo.
- DEMAND (SOLD PER MONTH): Demand jumped 54 units for SFR and 17 units for Condo.
- FAILURES (EXPIRE-WITHDRAW): SFR and Condo steady with a positive propensity in the short run.
- IN ESCROW (FUTURE CLOSINGS): SFR and Condo inventory in escrow maintaining current levels. This suggests that the recent surge of closings is being replaced by new escrow entry.
- PERCENT SELLING: No significant movement.
- MONTHS SUPPLY: This key measure is tightening by about a month for SFR, while Condo tightened by 2.5 months. This bodes well for continued positive price movement.
- MARKET SPEED: The pace of the Reno market is rising consistently. The best performing Reno sub-market remains the perennial favorite, Fernley SFR, returning a Market Speed of 46 (up 5 points from last month). The slowest is Yerington SFR at 18.
Past MCR reports:
Ursula
Thanks for the info, Guy! This is interesting!
skeptical
The elephant in the room here is the expiring tax credit.
I love the comment, “Buyers who have been sitting on the fence should make their move now. ”
Uh, er, actually that was good advice last month. Now, not so much.
Permabulls, please now commence with your tirades….
Denial
Oh my! More evidence the market has bottomed ! Oh how can this be??? I wanted to buy a new house for $1,500!
Denial
Skeptical what will your excuse be 3 months from now?
skeptical
redictions:
– May will look even better than April, due to seasonal buying factors and the last minute contracts signed before the expiration of the tax credit.
– June will even show a slight bump due to delayed closings on short sales and other distressed properties whose contracts got in under the deadline for the credit.
– July will be the line in the sand. If Y-O-Y and M-O-M comparisons are favorable in July, then the bottom callers have a case.
So, July and August will be important months for this market and will help determine if the bottom is in the rear view mirror or still ahead.
For the record, I readily admit that the money printers who are depreciating our currency into oblivion will eventually win this battle. Unfortunately, the citizens will lose the war.
KB
Skeptical, what you mean is that maybe the median can be said to have hit bottom, correct?
Surely you are not saying that prices have stopped falling in all market segments, correct?
I have a neighbor who has his house on the market for a price that, if he were to get this price, the house would sell at what it sold for in 2002. This is not some delusionally priced property, which is what DonC always says when anybody points out that many properties are not selling and are seeing price reductions. Also, this is not a run down shack either. This is a very well kept house in one of the Caughlin Ranch neighborhoods.
Denial
If price per sqft is at or above current levels STILL in July then the bottom will had been reached last month.. However i don’t need to wait until then to realize it’s already been reached in the 250k and under segment..
Denial
Kb 1 property doesn’t define an entire market. I sold a property late last year that was priced BELOW 2002 levels not even including 70k in upgrades.
Denial
How do you know what it would sell for in 2002 anyways? If it never sold in 2002 ? To say that is pure seculation.
Take a look at most properties priced 200k and under and you will see a large portion of them are selling for less than 2002 levels….
I don't believe it
Kb
Perhaps you could share with us the price/sqft your friend is asking?
KB
Denial, I know exactly what the house sold for in 2002 because that is the last year it sold. It is absolutely NOT speculation to say that if it sells now for the current asking price it will sell for what it sold for in 2002.
The price/sq.ft. is $145.
This house has been on the market since late last summer. The owner of this house would be quite flabergasted to be told that the prices of houses have stopped falling. It maybe that the prices of houses below $200K have stopped falling, but that is absolutely not true for all price segments.
Schoolie
Anyone who cares about the state of Washoe County Schools, or the community in general should take a look at the following:
https://www.ittakesacommunityk12.com/Home.php
The one apprehension I have about raising my boys in Reno is the sorry state of Nevada education. I believe this idea is one way to address the issue.
Yes, the government is broke — fiscally and practically. If anyone out there gives a rat’s behind about their kids, or about the value of their homes, they might want to think about throwing $20 at the problem. It just might help.
MikeZ
Credit where due: skeptical’s the newest reason for why stability isn’t really stability is quite creative: our currency is being hyperinflated.
Looks like the dire predictions of “It’s Detroit!” are being replaced with “It’s Zimbabwe!”
Never a dull moment here!
smarten
Schoolie –
I personally have a litmus test for whether/not local government warrants additional [I say “additional” because a portion of secured property taxes fund public education] contributions by property owners. It’s called the level of compensation given to the head of that local government; here, the school district’s superintendent.
If memory serves correctly, the school district’s superintendent receives a salary in excess of $250K/annually plus benefits. In my experience when you pay a school district superintendent this level of compensation, it likely indicates that the compensation paid to its financial manager and other top administrators [as well as administrative assistants] isn’t far behind.
Your plea for $20/property owner ISN’T aimed at our kids – it’s aimed at the school district’s bureaucracy. Until we compensate education administrators like the public stewards they’re supposed to be [another way “to address the issue”], IMO they have no standing to play the education card – and that’s exactly what this school district is doing.
Sorry Schoolie, it’s not about our kids’ education.
Sully
I was going to mention the same point smarten did. This superintendent has been moaning and groaning for three years (that I know of) and has accomplished zero.
His only recourse is to lay off teachers, rather than cut unnecessary expenses (such as his own salary).
I would gladly give up the 20 bucks, if the administration showed they are willing to work with the taxpayers to get this district back on track.
Apparently, raising taxes is the only option they are interested in hearing – not bottom line results.
That’s just my opinion, but I’m thinking a lot of others feel the same way.
BanteringBear
Excellent post, Smarten. We agree on something! If they couldn’t get it right when the gravy train was flowing with tax revenues and house prices through the roof, they certainly aren’t going to now. Massive pay cuts are needed, and heads should roll on top of it. If the guy is making $250k, but the school district is in dire straights, he needs to find another job!
MikeZ
[KB] “This house has been on the market since late last summer. The owner of this house would be quite flabbergasted to be told that the prices of houses have stopped falling.”
Just because it isn’t selling at the 02 price of $145/sqft that doesn’t mean prices are still falling, only that prices are below his asking price.
Consider:
1) your neighbor may have overpaid in 02
2) maybe the house/neighborhood was in better condition in 02
3) perhaps restrictions are encumbering the sale
Has your neighbor had any offers? How far below asking price?
Sully
The superintendent was hired 7 months ago, it must have been the previous one I was referring too. Sorry. Guess I’ll have to give the new guy a chance before I chastise him.
MikeZ
re: Schoolie
The subject of the local public schools could be an entire thread all on its own.
To many taxpayers, the public schools are a huge money pit where bureaucrats and unions just keep performing at the minimum acceptable level to avoid federal takeover, while draining funds as rapidly as possible.
And always, ALWAYS demanding more money for less work. It’s always more money that will fix the problems. Keep the same teachers, the same bureaucrats, but pay them more.
I think we can all see how well that plan has worked.
The public school system as it exists today creates public-sector jobs for life, essentially, with no real accountability.
And the real shame isn’t even all the money that’s wasted, it’s the number of children who “graduate,” undereducated, without the necessary math, science and language skills required for a successful future.
Another $20? That just feeds more money into an unaccountable system that never seems to have enough.
Schoolie, if you care about your kids, find them a good private school.
smarten
Thank you Mr. BB. Actually, I think we agree on a good number of things. But when we don’t, that’s O.K. Just don’t be degrading and insulting about it [look at Skeptical – he/I disagree on much but our dialogues are civil and I think pretty respectful of one another].
With that said, I was going to recommend to Schoolie that if she really cares about her kids’ education, she should home school them.
inclinejj
With that said, I was going to recommend to Schoolie that if she really cares about her kids’ education, she should home school them.
Or pay to send them to a private school.
skeptical
The trough median sales price for this crash occurred in Jan 2010 and was $170k.
Sales since that trough just 4 months ago have been goosed by the expiring tax credit.
The next two years have the potential of flooding the market with more foreclosures than have been seen to date (due to alt-A, neg am, and interest only loan resets).
Yet, permabulls on this blog triumphantly write like the worst is behind us and now is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Everything will be all right forever.
I think no one gets burned by waiting a while to see how this whole thing pans out. If someone gets offended by that opinion, they likely have borderline personality disorder.
LikeBigBottoms
Yep, most definitely the bottom:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37131956/?source=patrick.net
Reno Ignoramus
There may be another governmental entity that could blow $1,000,000 with less accountability that the school district, but right now I can’t think of which one it might be.
The way the school district blows through money an infusion of $1 million would go unnoticed.
I intend no insult or criticism to Schoolie. I applaud her concern about the quality of the education her children receive. It is unfortunate that others have to invite her to consider private education or home schooling because of the public system’s deficiencies. That is often simply not an option for many working parents.
Decades of experience have taught us that throwing money at the deficiencies of the school system does not work. Whether that be hundreds of millions of tax dollars dollars over decades or 50,000 contibutions of $20.
Reno Ignoramus
I just went back and re-read Schoolie’s comment, and perhaps I owe an apology. I assumed that Schoolie is a woman and a mom, but I see now that my assumtption may not be correct. If Schoolie is a man and a dad, I apologize for the incorrect assumption. In either event, I still applaud your concern.
Beware The "Permabulls!"
Oh. My. God.
… It’s the PERMABULLS!
I’m dyin’ over here. Skeptical, you crack me up!
money for nothing
I have nothing to do with the fundraiser above, so if you disagree with my comments, don’t blame them. That said, I salute the effort they are making. Instead of griping about the sorry state of education in Washoe County, they are actually trying to do something about it.
I hope the vocal minority that dominates this blog is just that — a minority. I trust there are others out there that remain silent, that care about the community and the society as a whole.
Fact: Nevada ranks 46 out of 50 states on spending per student.
Fact: Nevada ranks 49 out of 50 on quality of primary education, judged from a variety of objective factors such as test scores.
The long term economic prospects for the state will remain bleak as long as quality of education remains dismal.
The money for the above named fund raiser goes right to the classrooms for supplies for the students. It doesn’t go to the administrators.
People who have the lowest tax responsibilities in the industrialized world thumb their noses at the prospect of providing a measly $20 to the students in Washoe County.
These are the same people who don’t want higher taxes on gasoline, but criticize govt response/regulation regarding the cataclysm in the Gulf.
These are the same peopel who don’t want higher income taxes but demand a defense force that spends more than the next 10 countries combined.
These are are the same people who rail against gunshots on 2nd street while refusing to pay more taxes for an adequate police force.
Guess what? Nothing is free. You want a functioning society? You have to pay for it. Nevada is bottom in spending per pupil and bottom in quality of education. You see no correlation? You must be blind.
Take away all taxes and all govt and you’ll have nothing but Mad Max. Too much govt is a bad thing, but there must be a balance. Don’t cloak your selfishness in pious indignation. Just admit you’d rather play craps with it.
BanteringBear
“Fact: Nevada ranks 46 out of 50 states on spending per student.
Fact: Nevada ranks 49 out of 50 on quality of primary education, judged from a variety of objective factors such as test scores.”
Given this fact, do you think that Walt Rulffes, the Clark County Schools Superintendent, really earned his $307,000 salary last year? Was Paul Dugan, Washoe County Schools Superintendent, really worth the $202,000 of yearly taxpayer funds for the job he did? Does Heath Morrison, a rookie, deserve a $238,000 starting salary for taking over Paul Dugan’s job? Of course not. These are OUTRAGEOUS salaries, and particularly preposterous given the performance of the district and it’s students. JOKE.
DownButNotOut
‘The long term economic prospects for the state will remain bleak as long as quality of education remains dismal.’
I couldn’t agree more. Without an educated workforce Nevada will always be a service oriented state.
‘These are the same people who don’t want higher taxes on gasoline, but criticize govt response/regulation regarding the cataclysm in the Gulf’
See this is where your argument loses steam. Like many, I want government accountability for the taxes we already pay. Do you seriously believe that’s what we have??? Do you not realize BP has lobbyists that bought off government officials so as to weaken the regulations required to drill?
‘These are the same people who don’t want higher income taxes but demand a defense force that spends more than the next 10 countries combined’
Actually I don’t believe that’s what the American people want. That’s what government is giving us, on their own accord. I didn’t vote for more military, did you? Did anybody? No – instead we have a system that allows incompetents to get $2-300K per year in the school system without any accountability for why they’d be worth that pay.
So why would anyone want to give $20 or $100 more to an irresponsible system that only rewards those at the top and union officials that perpetuate the mediocrity that currently exists? It is a never ending cycle that most people don’t want any part of.
Martin
I’m sorry, but I cannot understand why the top tier of administrators in the WCSD need to be collectively paid TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars. You know, 200 grand here, 150 grand there, 120 grand here, 120 grand there, how many dozens making 100 grand?
Nope. Can’t buy it. Sorry.
Norton
I remember whenever there was a school bond measure on the ballot in Washoe County, it always passed. The people of this County always rose up when the schools were at issue. Then, about 10 years ago, that stopped. It stopped because we all figured out that the WCSD had become a bottomless pit into which we were invited to throw our money. The WCSD, no matter what it had, would ALWAYS want more, And more. And more.
I now seriously doubt that another school bond measure will EVER pass.
MikeZ
RE: “Nevada is bottom in spending per pupil and bottom in quality of education. You see no correlation? You must be blind.”
You see only what you want to see.
Top 3 in spending:
DC $15K, #1
NY #13K, #2
NJ $13K, #3
SAT scores
DC 1411, #49
NY 1478, #43
NJ 1499, #35
Welcome to reality. More money does not equal better results.
Zen
Nice work Mike. Money might help if there was a willingness to rethink and overhaul the system, and provide accountability for every dollar spent. Try rewarding the schools that do succeed. Under the current system, they are punished and the failing schools are rewarded with more dollars. It’s easy to understand why. It’s because money is the only tool available to Washington bureaucrats and local administrators to improve schools. What I don’t understand is why after decades and decades of proving that simply throwing money at this problem doesn’t fix it, someone won’t try another approach.
Here is an interesting website. It correlates state spending per pupil to the resulting state average ACT scores and then ranks all the states based on getting the best education bang for the buck. It has Nevada ranked as the 5th best in the U.S.
http://www.datamasher.org/mash-ups/act-scores-vs-school-spending
Money for Nuthin
Either NV gets the most bang for its buck, as Zen states (and could therefore benefit greatly from more spending)
Or, NV wastes all its education funds.
YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS.
This fund raiser is for money that would go directly to the classrooms, so all the conjecture about overpaid administrators is totally irrelevant.
SmartMoney
A good article on school spending http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2008/09/Does-Spending-More-on-Education-Improve-Academic-Achievement
smarten
From page 19 of the Washoe County School District’s 2009 [for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2009] Annual Financial Report [ http://www.washoe.k12.nv.us/docs/business/annual-financial_reports/09_Financial_Section.pdf ]:
“Despite the reduction of funding, the District is able to continue all existing General Fund
programs and provide for INCREASES related to salary roll-ups, retirement contribution INCREASES, utilities, and other operating increases. This was accomplished by decreasing expenditures for health insurance, worker’s compensation and property/casualty insurance premiums (as the District is self-funded for those programs and sufficient reserves exist to provide for those decreases); freezing the hiring for a number of open positions; use of contingency accounts; use of stimulus funding related to special education maintenance of effort; reducing operating budgets; and reducing unreserved ending fund balance.”
Sully
I like that part about salary roll-ups and retirement contribution increases. It keeps the employees here rather than moving on to somewhere else. However, that somewhere else doesn’t have any better finances but we are supposed to think they do! Jeez, you’d think they would come up with something new during a crisis. 🙂
Sully
I suppose the next thing we hear is that performance bonuses are necessary to retain these overpaid desk jockeys – so they don’t leave for that great somewhere else.
Old Parnell
A few thoughts on WCSD….
I’m not sure that the new super is overpaid based on size of orgainization (8,000 employees, 600 million budget). The old City of Reno manager (McNeely?) was paid around $300+perks for about 9 months per year of so-so work, the CEO’s of IGT and Renown, are paid well into the six figures (similar sized organizations). I won’t ever begrudge a go-getter like Heath, and I think $200K / year might actually be a deal based on the District’s future problems.
As for certified teachers, a first year cop or fireman just out of high school will earn the same or more as a teacher with a bachelors & MA and 15 years of experience (around 50K/yr). I’m not finding too many haters for the 30K starting teaching salary here either.
After reading the link on financials, (thanks Smarten) the WCSD has done a decent job of cutting back without impacting the students, unlike the city/county where the first cuts always have the largest public impact. As for next year, the picture is not so rosy, as the funding will come from last year’s revenue.
Remember, as shown by the Utah example, a strong family unit still has the greatest impact on the success of a child. Nine years of child neglect cannot be made right by two weeks in the classroom.
Old Parnell
Gina
Did you guys see this:
According to this article, Reno is among the housing markets that will never return to levels of three years ago —
“These are the thirteen cities where, based on home values in 2007 and current unemployment, housing will never return to the levels of three years ago”
billddrummer
To Gina,
Thanks for the link. Did you notice that the downtown Reno photo was taken before Fitzgerald’s closed?
John Newell
“[A]strong family unit still has the greatest impact on the success of a child.”
Hear, hear! As I have said before, the value of a child’s education is most often proportional to the value the child’s family of origin places on education. Most public school systems provide an adequate level of education IF the parents/caregivers are involved in their child’s education, even if that involvement is merely professing an interest in what the child is learning.
Gina
Stock photos, no doubt.
MikeZ
REL: “According to this article, Reno is among the housing markets that will never return to levels of three years ago.”
Never? Ridiculous.
It’ll take a while, maybe even a decade or two, but it will happen. The author is a fool.
smarten
Young Parnell –
Whenever the public questions the compensation paid to bureaucrats like these, we’re told how much they would be earning if they were in the private sector. But they’re not! If all of a sudden one day we fired all school district superintendents, where would they find jobs? Doing what? And at what level of compensation? Here we’re talking about education – where teachers went into the profession for the love of our kids, and are rewarded with salaries of $50K annually or less. Wasn’t that the reason administrators went into the profession? If your answer is yes, I’m sorry, it just doesn’t jive with an annual salary of $250K [isn’t this what the Vice-President of the U.S. is paid?] or more!
When everything is good and there’s plenty of money, it’s new office furniture and junkets for everyone. But when things get tough, supplies for our kids are the first to go, and it’s full steam ahead for previously awarded bonuses and salary increases to administrators. In other words, it’s all about ME [actually not me but them]. And when the public balks, administrators play the education card – exactly what’s being played here and now.
We’re paying this school district nearly half a BILLION [that’s with a “B”] dollars/year to educate our county’s elementary school aged children. Just my opinion but if administrators can’t do the job with the money available, should we maybe find ones who can?
So when Money for Nuthin says “this fund raiser is for money that would go directly to the classrooms, so all the conjecture about overpaid administrators is totally irrelevant,” I think he/she is wrong. IMO it’s ALL about overpaid administrators because if they weren’t overpaid, there would be plenty of money left over for classrooms and our kids.
One final point to consider. How many of our kids are enrolled in the county’s elementary schools? I’m going to look it up again just to make sure but my recollection is about 25K. Divide the school district’s $500M budget by 25K students and you get an annual cost/student of $20K. Am I wrong here? And if I’m not, what’s all this talk about spending only $6K/student annually on education?
smarten
According to the school district’s fast facts [ http://www.washoe.k12.nv.us/docs/community/reports/fast-facts/FF_2009.pdf ], there are 63,310 students enrolled in elementary, middle and high schools. According to the financial report I previously referred to, 2009’s fiscal year budget evidenced a total of $614,749,692 in revenue from all sources. This works out to a global expenditure on education of slightly over $9,700/student.
Also FWIW, the district employs roughly 7,000 teachers. There are another 363 employees labeled by the district as “administrators.” $10,209,601 is being spent on general administration; $31,301,763 is being spent on “school administration;” and, $8,101,084 is being spent on “business support.” Let’s see, these 363 administrative persons are costing the district nearly $50M/annually [nearly 10% of the budget]. And I can’t even tell if these numbers include “benefits.”
billddrummer
Clearly, we should have pursued careers in education.
skeptical
Smarten,
8% of total budget to admin seems reasonable to me, especially when you consider the 63k students and 7k teachers.
You seem to try to be making the point that the system is inefficient. Not sure that data helps you.
Zen
Mike: “It’ll take a while, maybe even a decade or two, but it will happen. The author is a fool.”
In real money terms the article may be right on. If the market returns to the previous highs in a decade or two, chances are that we’ll also be paying $8 for a gallon of gas, $10 for a loaf of bread, and the average local yearly income might be over $100,000. Of course we will probably see the dollar values reached again due to inflation, but maybe (hopefully) not the ridiculously over inflated real prices that did not correlate with local incomes.
LikeBigBottoms
Most definitely the bottom:
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NV-Reno-home-value/r_13478/#metric=mt%3D36%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D13478%2C276579%2C274801%2C276311%26el%3D0