October numbers are in. We saw an unexpected bump up in the median sold price for October over September; $289K over $285K, respectively. Is this it? Have we finally hit the bottom of the housing market? No, I believe it’s a blip that will disappear, probably by the time I post November numbers next month. The fact is, the number of sales (units) continue to decrease, while inventory continues to rise, increasing the DOM (days on market) and placing downward pressure on for sale prices. As an example the median price of those houses currently under contract (e.g. homes expected to close in the next month or two) is $283,950.
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking $ | # Homes Sold | Median Sold $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | 4,927 | $340,000 | 255 | $289,000 |
| Sept 2007 | 5,076 | $339,900 | 267 | $285,000 |
| Aug 2007 | 5,566 | $340,000 | 347 | $295,000 |
| July 2007 | 5,549 | $345,000 | 351 | $295,995 |
| June 2007 | 5,510 | $348,000 | 345 | $300,000 |
| May 2007 | 5,268 | $349,000 | 412 | $295,250 |
| April 2007 | 4,998 | $349,900 | 378 | $296,000 |
| Mar 2007 | 4,732 | $349,000 | 373 | $294,900 |
| Feb 2007 | 4,477 | $346,000 | 312 | $285,000 |
| Jan 2007 | 4,883 | $347,770 | 324 | $280,000 |
| Dec 2006 | 4,720 | $348,975 | 337 | $290,000 |
| Nov 2006 | 5,346 | $349,900 | 318 | $300,000 |
| Oct 2006 | 5,763 | $349,900 | 409 | $299,900 |
| Sept 2006 | 6,075 | $354,000 | 385 | $299,900 |
| Aug 2006 | 6,350 | $355,000 | 372 | $306,650 |
| July 2006 | 6,408 | $359,900 | 411 | $322,900 |
| June 2006 | 6,440 | $359,900 | 463 | $325,000 |
| May 2006 | 5,954 | $364,900 | 425 | $316,000 |
| April 2006 | 5,201 | $363,999 | 412 | $316,000 |
| Mar 2006 | 4,898 | $365,000 | 434 | $328,000 |
| Feb 2006 | 4,400 | $369,900 | 321 | $317,000 |
| Jan 2006 | 4,245 | $370,000 | 325 | $325,000 |
| Dec 2005 | 4,040 | $375,000 | 385 | $319,900 |
| Nov 2005 | 4,432 | $376,448 | 443 | $331,000 |
| Oct 2005 | 4,694 | $376,700 | 559 | $335,000 |
| Sept 2005 | 4,567 | $380,000 | 603 | $336,500 |
| Aug 2005 | 4,370 | $385,700 | 695 | $334,950 |
| July 2005 | 3,860 | $387,000 | 677 | $345,000 |
| June 2005 | 3,411 | $384,500 | 607 | $335,000 |
| May 2005 | 3,113 | $375,000 | 717 | $326,000 |
| April 2005 | 2,808 | $365,000 | 650 | $315,000 |
| Mar 2005 | 2,611 | $350,000 | 660 | $309,000 |
| Feb 2005 | 2,198 | $348,250 | 411 | $301,000 |
| Jan 2005 | 2,078 | $349,000 | 381 | $295,000 |
Note: The median table above is updated on a monthly basis. The median home price data reported covers the cities of Reno, NV and Sparks, NV. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built and Condo/Townhouse. Data excludes Manufactured/Modular. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – November 2007.
Housing Sales – 3rd Quarter 2007
source: Washoe County Assessor
smarten
Look at the steady decrease [now down 64%] in the number of monthly sales since August of 2005, while the number of properties for sale has been relatively constant [thus is it any wonder the average number of DOMs has increased?].
It’s probably just me, but when 5% or less [FSBOs, builders] of properties actively for sale actually sell, the median sales price becomes meaningless!
MikeZ
Do we know the median price per sqft?
Reno Ignoramus
Ok, I know this is Guy’s post. But I have a question for Diane. Every month, in Diane’s market recap post, she says we continue to sell through 11% of the inventory.
Huh?
Do realtors have a way of calculating percentages that is different from the rest of the world?
In October, 255 houses sold out of 4,927. 255 is 5% of 4,927, not 11%.
In September, 267 houses sold out of 5,076. 267 is 5% of 5,076, not 11%.
In August, 347 houses sold out of 5,566. 347 is 6% of 5,566, not 11%
In July, 351 houses sold out of 5,549. 351 is 6% of 5,549, not 11%.
I could go on, but you get my point.
In fact, there has not been a month wherein 11% of the inventory sold since October, 2005.
Care to explain the math, Ms. Diane?
Lindie
Something suspicious is starting to happen here.
If the median ASKING price of houses currently under contract is $284,000, and those houses actually SELL for 92% of asking, more or less, then we should be seeing a median of around $260,000, more or less, in the next month or two.
Yea, well, I’ll bet there is a better chance that Diane sells the $800,000 barn in the next two months than we see the median around $260,000. But, if Guy’s info is accurate, then that’s where the median should be within 30-60 days.
Something happens to this reported median figure once it falls into the hands of the realtor Dark Matter Committee, aka as the MLS.
Is there any way that I can get the actual sales numbers, all 255 of them for October, and 267 for September, etc., independent of the MLS?
Something is starting to smell in Denmark.
Guy Johnson
MikeZ, at the bottom of the post I added a table of the current (Q3) data from the Washoe County Assessor’s office. Lots of $/sq.ft. info contained there. Note: Reno data is separated from Sparks.
R.I., I will ask Diane about how she calculates her percent sell-through. I’m sure there is an explanation.
Lindie, I’m not sure if the table I added helps, but that data is straight from the county assesor (not MLS). Those numbers include all sales (FSBOs, new construction, etc), not just resales.
Lindie
Guy, what I would like to see are the actual sales numbers, all 255 of them, for October. All 276 of them for September, all 347 of them for August, etc. Where can I get this data? A compilation, or aggregate, is not helpful. I suspect the smell is coming from the compilation process.
Guy, don’t you agree that if your info on pendings sales is accurate, that we should be seeing a significant drop in the median sold price within 30-60 days?
Guy Johnson
Lindie,
I missed what you were asking on my first read of your comment. Yes, it does seem as though there is a discrepancy between the Under Contract price and the resulting Sold price. I have noticed this inconsistency in the past and have questioned the accuracy of the “under contract” data. [Do you remember a couple months ago when I (incorrectly) predicted something like only 150 sales based on the “under contract” numbers] For this reason I do not usually post the UC data along with the “for sale” and “sold” numbers.
All I can say for certain is that the trend of the UC numbers portends a continued decrease in the Sold numbers (see below).
month – UC Median
MAR 07 – $300,000
APR 07 – $299,750
MAY 07 – $300,000
JUN 07 – $290,000
JUL 07 – $300,000
AUG 07 – $285,000
SEP 07 – $286,500
OCT 07 – $283,950
Lindie
There is something wrong with these MLS reported numbers. Very wrong.
Look at Guy’s above post. According to this post, the August median ASKING price under contract was $285,000, and the September median ASKING price under contract was $286,500.
Assume these properties actually SOLD for 92% of the asking price.That would mean the median SOLD price should have been around $263,000, more or less, for October (30-60 days later).
What was the actual reported median SOLD price for October?
$289,000.
In other words, the reported median SOLD price was HIGHER than the median ASKING price.
I don’t think so.
Not unless buyers are offering 101% of asking prices these days. Yea right.
And some of you out there call me a hostile pessimist?
Now either the NNMLS, which transacts in excess of a billion dollars in real estate deals every year, cannot afford to purchase a software package that can accurately report data, or, the numbers are being manipulated.
Surely the REIC would never stoop to manipulating the data it releases to the public. But maybe somebody can explain to me how the median sales price can end up being higher than the median asking price in a market wherein everybody knows buyers are not making full price offers, and sellers are taking less than full price.
Anybody?
Derrick
something I noticed.. you get alot more bang for your buck in sparks (spanish/wingfield springs).
Nice to see the town center is almost completely built out and running at near capacity. Soon we will have eagle canyon shopping center another multimillion dollar retail project, and the park they are building in spanish springs estimated at 26million total cost.
dont forget the new road project in spanish springs as well running another 7 million
5 years from now sparks wont even need reno and will be much nicer if it isnt already.
MikeZ
RE: “But maybe somebody can explain to me how the median sales price can end up being higher than the median asking price”
Cancellations clustered in the low end could cause that phenomenon.
Diane Cohn
RI, thanks for the math check. So I went back through the last four reports to see what happened and discovered that I was really measuring pendings to actives. In other words, properties in contract rather than properties sold.
So yes, sell through, actually selling, etc were the wrong choice of words in the first paragraph summary, and that was my mistake.
I don’t know where you saw 11% every month, but if you can link me there, please do as I couldn’t come up with it on my own… Also, I don’t understand why Guy’s numbers on active homes for sale are higher than mine. I’ll have to check with him on that.
Here’s what I actually said as quoted from the monthly reports:
JULY: The grand total? 513 pendings (from 540), representing 10% of the available inventory of 4906 homes in the Reno-Sparks metro area.
AUGUST: The grand total? 465 pendings (from 513), representing 10% of the available inventory of 4,523 homes in the Reno-Sparks metro area.
SEPTEMBER: The grand total? 430 pendings (from 465), representing 9% of the available inventory of 4,623 homes in the Reno-Sparks metro area.
Then there was October, a total math mishap. Here’s what I said:
OCTOBER: The grand total? 389 pendings (from 430), representing 11% of the available inventory of 4,405 homes in the Reno-Sparks metro area.
That should have been 9%. I must have gotten distracted, dividing the big number by the little one instead of vice-versa.
Geez, this is embarrassing. I’ll definitely be more careful in the future. Again, my apologies for the error, and thanks for catching it.
BanteringBear
It seems like an honest mistake, Diane. Your tell it like it is style is a breath of fresh air for the industry and the public. If more Realtors would adopt your philosophy, they would be better off for it. It’s hard to find anyone who is brave enough to talk about, let alone post, what you do. Keep up the good work.
Allen Murray
Lindie, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that median sold prices can easily be higher than median asking if there were more upper end sales that would push the median higher. Remember, this isn’t an average, its the median. Am I correct???? I would sure hate to think that you are a hostile pessimist.
MikeZ
RE: “something I noticed.. you get alot more bang for your buck in sparks (spanish/wingfield springs).”
Our dotcom multimillionaire from Cali is suddenly concerned with value?
Lindie
So the median sold price can be consistently greater than or equal to the median asking price. This is because the lower end escrows fall out and the higher end escrows only going on to close? This could happen once I suppose. But 4 out of the last 5 months? Sorry, I’m not buying that.
The only way to know what is happening is to look at the actual closed sales, each and every one of them, and independently calculate the median. But how does one get that data?
doofus
Lindie, it’s easy if you want to spend the time and can navigate XL. Go to the Assessor’s site and download 2007 sales data. Refine your search for anything you want.
Diane and Guy report based on the MLS data, with slighly different parameters. It is what they have easy access to. I don’t trust the MLS data, and only look at the Assessor’s data for closed transactions.
Quit whining (please) (please) about information you don’t think is being provided by the Realtors that you can get yourself with a minimal effort. The MLS is their system and it works for them (right). Do you really want to be able to access this damaged data base?
That said, glad to see you back posting! I was worried that your landlord’s foreclosure isssues would preoccupy your time. Glad it isn’t an issue.
Lindie
It’s only when a person cannot counter another’s arguments headon with a meritorious counter that he needs to resort to insults. Doofus, thanks for the cheap shot. You show your character well. Tell me, have I ever insulted you on this blog?
DERRICK
Yes thank you for the cheap shot as well mikez, Like lindie put so well.. “you show your character well”
MikeZ
RE: DERRICK
Yo. Sorry dawg. My bad. I didn’t think “dotcom millionaire” was an insult.
Samuel Pharris
Most of the USA economy is produced by us
the buyers. The US economy is running
on credit cards and much of the equity
in homes today is gone through refinancing
and paying off credit or buying things
such as vehicles and ect., therefore using
homes as an ATM machine. These folks go
out and produce even more economy buying
still going back to credit cards and getting
into even more debt such as during christmas
and ect..
This is dangerous since most buyers are in
debt up to their eyeballs. The price of
homes is like the price of vehicles. The
prices are simply way overvalued whereby
the average consumer cannot get into a
300,000 plus home. A 50,000 dollar ford
pickup which is what they cost is getting
to high coupled with gas prices……that
leads to a terrible situation.
How high can prices go until eventually
you price the product out of oblivian?
When will this house of cards finally fall
with a credit card consumer? An economy
based upon debt. Houses, vehicles, and
home depot. This whole thing is going to
fall I think and hard.
Sean
I completely agree with you Samuel. I see this in my friends industry which is boats. Not only boats but rv’s as well. These are the first non essential items to go. The market on these are very soft and boat and rv dealers are sitting on thousands of leftover boats and rvs in the reno area. Next area to hit which is just starting is new vehicle buying. We are at just the start of a downward spiral!
Samuel Pharris
Well…its not good news for Reno as today
http://www.cnn.com is listed on the most hit area
for housing depreciation homes just are not
selling at the prices people want.
GREED???????????
I think so. We are no longer in a housing
boom and we had better get use to the fact
that asking 450,000 bucks for a home that
will be 250,000 anywhere else just aint
going to happen anymore. Reno is basically
a sea of overvalued stucco crap and projects
on hold.
I cant count how many folks who had new
homes built and now are in personal anguish
and financial wailing…… fixing all the mistakes made by these cheapo builders
who bought a 12 pack to pay these street
laborors hanging out as if hailing a cab
waiting for someone to tag them for work.
Tell you the truth……Reno is a nice
area but do you really think that asking
450,000 for a peice of stucco crap is
reality. What a town. Anything goes and
these brokers just are smiling from ear
to ear for all those idiots from california
who actually buy this stucco crap built
on cheap budweiser labor. Where was
our govt when some of these crap stucco
builders put up all this beer labor crap?
I guess its the same crap you buy at Walmart
made by slave labor in China. Make it cheap
and sell it as high as you can and call it
cheap anyway. You buy a 55,000 dollar
ford pickup with all the candy and where
was this truck made. Who knows. CHEAPO
BEER LABOR?
Well, these builders sucked as much as
they could from as many idiots that
actually bought these crakerboxes
along with the brokers and agents.
IM SAYING ALL DID IT THAT WAY. BUT TO
MANY DID. AND NOW………..
PARTY IS OVER!!!!!!!!!