The number of houses for sale in February dropped 3.5% from January’s numbers – continuing a downward trend that began last fall (September 2007). Similarly the median asking price continues to decline (1.5% from last month) as well.
Unfortunately the number of houses sold last month are also way down. With only 125 sales reported at the moment, February’s units sold are off almost 34% from January’s numbers. Consequently inventory continues to climb, despite the lower number of homes for sale.
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking $ | # Homes Sold | Median Sold $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Feb 2008 |
3,896 | $310,000 | 125 | $275,000 |
|
Jan 2008 |
4,039 | $315,000 | 188 | $268,500 |
|
Dec 2007 |
4,096 | $319,900 | 246 | $269,450 |
|
Nov 2007 |
4,475 | $320,000 | 231 | $288,195 |
| Oct 2007 | 4,853 | $323,900 | 266 | $288,000 |
| Sept 2007 | 4,995 | $325,000 | 269 | $285,000 |
| Aug 2007 | 5,447 | $329,900 | 348 | $295,000 |
| July 2007 | 5,397 | $336,900 | 351 | $295,995 |
| June 2007 | 5,365 | $339,900 | 372 | $300,000 |
| May 2007 | 5,183 | $340,000 | 423 | $299,000 |
| April 2007 | 4,929 | $345,000 | 389 | $296,000 |
| Mar 2007 | 4,678 | $344,000 | 384 | $299,950 |
| Feb 2007 | 4,419 | $340,000 | 326 | $289,450 |
| Jan 2007 | 4,747 | $343,000 | 328 | $281,500 |
| Dec 2006 | 4,579 | $345,000 | 347 | $293,995 |
| Nov 2006 | 5,225 | $349,500 | 327 | $300,000 |
| Oct 2006 | 5,682 | $349,900 | 421 | $300,000 |
| Sept 2006 | 5,998 | $352,948 | 396 | $301,000 |
| Aug 2006 | 6,287 | $355,000 | 393 | $310,000 |
| July 2006 | 6,156 | $360,000 | 416 | $324,750 |
| June 2006 | 5,979 | $364,000 | 473 | $329,000 |
| May 2006 | 5,438 | $369,900 | 432 | $318,750 |
| April 2006 | 4,655 | $369,000 | 415 | $317,000 |
| Mar 2006 | 4,324 | $369,900 | 437 | $329,000 |
| Feb 2006 | 3,899 | $374,900 | 326 | $315,250 |
| Jan 2006 | 4,245 | $370,000 | 325 | $325,000 |
| Dec 2005 | 4,040 | $375,000 | 385 | $319,900 |
| Nov 2005 | 4,432 | $376,448 | 443 | $331,000 |
| Oct 2005 | 4,694 | $376,700 | 559 | $335,000 |
| Sept 2005 | 4,567 | $380,000 | 603 | $336,500 |
| Aug 2005 | 4,370 | $385,700 | 695 | $334,950 |
| July 2005 | 3,860 | $387,000 | 677 | $345,000 |
| June 2005 | 3,411 | $384,500 | 607 | $335,000 |
| May 2005 | 3,113 | $375,000 | 717 | $326,000 |
| April 2005 | 2,808 | $365,000 | 650 | $315,000 |
| Mar 2005 | 2,611 | $350,000 | 660 | $309,000 |
| Feb 2005 | 2,198 | $348,250 | 411 | $301,000 |
| Jan 2005 | 2,078 | $349,000 | 381 | $295,000 |
Note: The median table above is updated on a monthly basis. The median home price data reported covers the cities of Reno, NV and Sparks, NV. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built and Condo/Townhouse. Data excludes Manufactured/Modular. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – March 2008.
GreenNV
Both Median Sold and Median Asking are 80% of their peak numbers, pretty consistant with a lot of market analyses. But those sales numbers are pretty dreadful – only 17.5% of the July 2005 peak number. Even Mr, Happy can’t figure out how to spin this in a positive light.
February NOD’s were 424, up from 404 in January. NOS’s were 248, up from 218. TD’s were 99, down from January’s record smashing 203. The January TD numbers were a bit of an aboration, probably due to lenders holding off on foreclosures over the holidays. But 99 in February was quite a lot lower than I expected. Are the mortgage re-works actually happening and forestalling foreclosures, or are the lenders just taking a breather to see what the Government is going to do?
BanteringBear
Those sales numbers are absolutely dismal, and I suspect they might even get worse. When was the last time that so few homes sold in the month of February, or any month for that matter? The mortgage well seems to be running a bit dry. Of course, with the return of down payment requirements, it comes as no surprise. I keep hearing this chatter about things picking up, but I just don’t see anything in those numbers which would indicate such a thing.
Sully
Guy, why did all the numbers from Feb 06 to date; change so much from the list last month?
I can see making some corrections, but two years worth?
Guy Johnson
Sully,
I noticed that too. I’m not sure why the numbers changed so much this month. I’m guessing something has change with the way the software aggregates the data.
MikeZ
Oh. My. Word.
THIRTY-ONE months of inventory?!
smarten
How can we reconcile these numbers with statements from the president of the Reno-Sparks Board of Realtors; articles in the RGJ; and, Allen Murray; that “things” have “picked up?”
Although I speculated some months ago that monthly sales activity would drop through March of this year [i.e., next month based upon historical activity], at no time did I think it would actually drop to a paltry 125 units/month. If it drops any further next month, it won’t drop any farter because at about 125 units/month, in essence NOTHING is selling.
Last September there were nearly 5,000 SFRs/condos for sale on the MLS. Now we’re down 22% to under 4,000. Where have all the listings gone? We know they haven’t sold. We know they haven’t gone as foreclosures [because the numbers aren’t high enough]. Are we to believe their owners are sellers like Mr. Murray who really don’t need to sell?
And not that the median sales price is relevant given we’re now down to 3% of listings actually selling [which would be under 2.5% if all 5,000 properties were still for sale], but it still hasn’t appreciably dropped [actually, it’s up from December and January]. Nor will it drop until unit sales start increasing.
So I’m guessing we’ve got about another month until we reach the bottom insofar as monthly sales are concerned. At that point we’ll have to see if the number starts increasing or stays relatively flat. Unless sales start increasing, the median sales price won’t drop. And once it starts dropping I think sales will increase which will drop the median sales price even more.
It should be an interesting summer.
Reno Ignoramus
Let’s see. 125 closed deals. 3100 agents. If we assume each deal had 2 agents (not necessarily true)that would mean 250 agents had a payday and 2,850 did not. If we assume that the 125 deals were all for the median price of $275K (not necessarily true)that would mean each agent involved in a deal made $8,250(at a 6% commission which also may not be necessarily true). If such agent then has to give one-half of that to his/her broker, each agent takes home $4,125, before taxes.
So last month 250 agents made $4,125 and 2,850 made nothing.
So how is the recession going in the agent business and isn’t it interesting that Chase can continue to run all those TOMA ads in the RGJ?
SkrapGuy
Guy, is there a way to determine the last time only 125 houses sold in a month? I would guess we would have to go back into the 1990s to discover the last time the number sold was that low.
Guy Johnson
SkrapGuy, I took a look at the historical data contained in our MLS. It appears there is data going back as far as January 1990. [Actually there is some partial data for December 1989; prior to that nothing.] January 1990 sales numbered 176. February 1990 sales numbered 141. March 1990 sales numbered 200. I spot checked the rest of the decade and could not find a month with only 125 or fewer sales.
R.I., the agents at Chase pay for their own TOMA ads. So, given the lack of per-agent revenue perhaps some of those ads will disappear.
SkrapGuy
Thanks Guy. That info is really remarkable. When you stop to think how much smaller Reno was in 1990 and how many fewer houses that even existed, it gives some perspective to just how S L O W this market is. Too bad the data isn’t available, but it may be a fair conclusion that we would have to go back to the mid 1980s to find a monthly sales figure this low.
SmartMoney
According to this site http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/Nevada/Reno/ inventory is slightly higher than it was this time last year. Not sure who is correct.
Sully
Good post SmartMoney; this also shows the affordability – very interesting that Reno/Las Vegas are at 30%.
MKchick
Sorry if this sounds like a newbie question (I’m a FHB who has read this blog since last year), but do these numbers reflect the housing contracts on new home construction? Or do those only show up at closing?
We are intensely looking at South Reno, and I was informed that KBH was very close to selling out its smaller development on the east side of Veterans. Centex is supposedly doing “very well” with their aggressive pricing on CYAN. But obviously those are all contracts and buyers can simply walk prior to closing and lose a grand or two of their holding deposits if their financing falls through.
My nerves are going through the roof at the moment; either the builders raise their prices one minute, interest rates go up the next, or I feel like there is no way we would be able to retain the value of a new home here in Reno if we have to move in five or ten years, and maybe we should wait for standing inventory fire-sales when we have to move out of our rental instead of contracting to build.
Resales are completely overpriced at the moment so we don’t even bother looking at them.
Guy Johnson
Hello MKchick,
Thank you for your question. These numbers typically do not include new home construction. This data comes from only those transactions listed on our MLS. Most production home builders do not list their inventory on our MLS. Mainly because they have their own sales offices onsite. However, occasionally a builder will list a few units of their outstanding inventory on the MLS. It really just depends on the builder and how many sales avenues they want to pursue.
Now on the other side, almost every builder is cooperating with Buyer’s agents today. This means they will pay a commission to the agent who is representing the purchaser of one of the builder’s new homes. After the transaction closes (records), sometimes the builder will enter the Sale into our MLS system, but not always. The reasons for this vary, but usually it is to provide comps for other houses that the builder has in inventory for sale.
Hope this answers a couple of your questions.
Regarding your nerves, yes purchasing a home is almost always emotionally stressing. I would like to address some of your concerns. If you would like to contact me either by phone or email, I would love to chat.
Thanks for reading our blog.