So welcome to August. The "buying" season is officially over for those hoping to relocate before the start of the school year. The "selling" season will show up in the stats for the next couple of months as escrows close and be trumpeted by the RSAR and RGJ as if some corner has been turned, some bottom reached.. Barring some blockbuster numbers from Jack and Diane (sorry Guy, I couldn’t resist) in their pending market reports, Summer 2008 looks ho-hum at best. Over 40% of sales are REOs. It looks to me like another 30% or more are short sales (when they finally, finally close). Once again, this 25% segment of market listings is representing at lest 70% of sales, and conversely the "normal" 75% of listings are only generating 30% of the sales. Weak. Then deduct the 10% of the sales from the MLS that are now builder listings, and you get a pretty grim picture of what is really going on out there for sellers.
How did Washoe do in July? Gross NODs totaled 549, down from 552 in June and 554 in May. Something near 20% of the NODs are from HOAs at this point, and NODs are holding pretty steady. NOSs were up 43% from June to 481, breaking all records. And TDs soared 30% from June to 280, again, a County record. When I look at my charts, the chances of preventing a NOD from becoming a NOS is basically 0% right now. And only 20% or so of NOSs are being saved from Trustee’s Deeds. I think NODs will start declining as everyone evaluates what the Government bailout means, and I think TDs will continue to rise for a few months.
This is probably the last time for the Creep Report, unless you are finding it particularly informative. Preparing it entails manually opening up every NOS to search for information – if I’m going to go blind, mama said their are more fun ways!
| Zip Code |
May 2007 NOS |
% of Total |
May 2008 NOS |
% of Total |
June 2008 NOS |
% of Total |
July 2008 NOS | % of Total |
|
89431 |
10 |
8.7% |
24 |
6.7% |
26 |
7.9% |
40 |
8.5% |
|
89433 |
2 |
1.8% |
27 |
7.6% |
18 |
5.5% |
21 |
4.5% |
|
89434 |
13 |
11.3% |
18 |
5.0% |
22 |
6.7% |
27 |
5.8% |
|
89436 |
21 |
18.3% |
45 |
12.6% |
37 |
11.2% |
78 |
16.6% |
|
89439 |
1 |
1.8% |
0 |
0% |
1 |
.3% |
0 |
0% |
|
89441 |
0 |
0% |
3 |
.8% |
2 |
.6% |
4 |
.9% |
|
89451/89402 |
5 |
4.3% |
7 |
2.0% |
5 |
1.5% |
6 |
1.3% |
|
89501 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
1 |
.3% |
2 |
.4% |
|
89502 |
8 |
7.0% |
29 |
8.1% |
19 |
5.8% |
26 |
5.4% |
|
89503 |
3 |
2.6% |
14 |
3.9% |
17 |
5.2% |
28 |
6.0% |
|
89506/89508 |
21 |
18.3% |
85 |
23.7% |
87 |
26.4% |
107 |
22.8% |
|
89509/89519 |
5 |
4.3% |
23 |
6.4% |
19 |
5.8% |
32 |
6.8% |
|
89510 |
0 |
0% |
3 |
.8% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
|
89511 |
3 |
2.6% |
15 |
4.2% |
15 |
4.6% |
30 |
6.4% |
|
89512 |
8 |
7.0% |
21 |
5.9% |
15 |
4.6% |
17 |
3.6% |
|
89521 |
9 |
7.8% |
14 |
3.9% |
28 |
8.5% |
26 |
5.5% |
|
89523 |
5 |
4.3% |
29 |
8.1% |
18 |
5.5% |
24 |
5.1% |
|
89704 |
1 |
.9% |
1 |
.3% |
1 |
.3% |
1 |
.2% |
|
|
115 |
100.3% |
358 |
100% |
329 |
100.7% |
469 |
99.8% |
When I started tracking Creep, I really expected the percentages to start rising in the South Meadows and it really hasn’t happened as dramatically as I would have thought. 89511 has some pretty high end homes going to sale, but the zip code also includes Fallen Leaf and some homes east of 395. Do you folks see any significant shifts going on?
Being a Second Gunman on the Grassy Knoll sort of guy, I have to wonder why the Center for Regional Studies is 10 days late releasing their monthly data to the public (they released it to the RGJ earlier). We taxpayers pay for their services, and I would hate to believe that industry forces are preventing them from posting their research. It really is the best data we have on what is really going on in the region.
There are cows grazing next door, and I’m about to cook a steak for dinner. Does that make me Evil Mikey? Enjoy the weekend, bloggers.
inclinejj
NOD’s going down..don’t be the house on it..with all these banks in trouble they keep pushing out the time before a NOD gets filed..before it was always 3 months now its up to 6-8 months..some lenders are so over loaded they haven’t sent nod’s 10 months down
inclinejj
Don’t bet the house on it..sorry typo
BanteringBear
Tis the season for massive price drops. Should be an enjoyable fall and winter. Unlike Smarten, I don’t think we’ll see a bottom in prices for years. We haven’t even begun to experience the next, and even more massive, wave of defaults which will be of the Alt-A and Prime variety.
IMO, if the analogy is a baseball game, we’re in the 3rd inning-and it might go to extras. Many, many of the homes for sale with monstrous price tags will end up in foreclosure, or selling at deep, deep discounts which are unimaginable to most. Like they say, keep your powder dry.
If ever there were a “dream” home, it’s one which is built or purchased at rock bottom pricing, in a desirable neighborhood with all the amenities one seeks, and in a manner not congruent with “hurry up and buy now, or be priced out forever”, but rather “take your time, there’s absolutely no need to rush one of the largest financial commitments you’ll ever make”.
There has never been a better time to re-up on the lease, sit back, and watch the carnage unfold. It’s bound to get really ugly moving forward.
GratefulD_420
Hi Mike,
Some more questions as I try to get my hands around the foreclosures.
You have 469 NOS listed for July.
Washoe county assesors has 251 listed for July on their BankRepo xcell spreadesheet found online.
RJG says Washoe county at: 230 for July
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080814/BIZ/808140333/1071/BIZ
What are the discrepencies?
GreenNV
GratefulD, the 469 (actually 481) number was for Notices of Sale. Look for about 75% of these to show up as Trustee’s Deeds by the end of August (139 already have).
I showed 280 TDs for July from Recorder’s data, so was pretty shocked to see the RGJs 230 number today. My numbers are for single family, condo, and manufactured (same sales numbers as Diane tracks in her monthly updates) and an occasional commercial filing that might slip in. My guess is that the RGJ is only showing single family Trustee’s Deeds.
It can take at least 2-3 weeks for recorded transactions to show up on the main Accessors site, and even longer to hit the Repo list. It is sort of random – some sales dates show up before others. As we approach the end of August, I would expect the Repo list to creep up closer to my numbers.