Last week’s post on Montreux Sales prompted some readers to request similar sales data for the ArrowCreek development. Rather than go through the exercise of pulling and compiling the data, I simply asked my colleague, Donna Spear, for the current ArrowCreek sales numbers. Donna is a fellow agent at Chase International and has been tracking the ArrowCreek real estate market for some time. She was happy to share these numbers with me, as well as provide a bit of commentary (see below). Thank you, Donna Spear.
Raw data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS (NNRMLS) – October 2008
Guy,
I have provided ArrowCreek sales data [as reported on our MLS] for the first three quarters of 2006, 2007 and 2008. Looking at the total year 2006, the median sales price was $1,100,000. For all of 2007 the median was $851,000, and year-to-date 2008 we are at $818,500. While 2008’s median price represents a drop of 25% from 2006, it is off only 3.8% from 2007’s median, which is encouraging.
The data is interesting [when looked at in this manner] because the median sales price for the first nine months of 2007 was $970,000 (see chart), however after including the fourth quarter 2007’s median sales price dropped to $851,000 (this was because several properties closed under $850,000 in Q4). The result is that % decline of the median sales price for the first 9 months of 2008 compared to all of 2007 was -3.8% instead of -15.6% as shown on the charts above. I would read this as a stabilization of the ArrowCreek market – except with fewer sales – what do you think? Speaking of unit sales, we are tracking to have 43 sales in 2008, which will be greater than the 36 solds reported in 2007 (however fewer than the 52 solds seen in 2006). Again, a good sign. I think this is valuable information for prospective ArrowCreek buyers.
On another note I just learned that the developer of ArrowCreek, Terra Brook and the HOA have reached an agreement to settle the litigation on the reserve fund. The developer never disputed that they owed the HOA money – it was the amount. Hopefully, this settlement will either reduce the additional fee of $111.24 that has been assessed or the fee will be eliminated sooner than the 7 year time frame. I am optimistic that with the recent sale of the golf course to Golden Gate Golf and this settlement, we will see a boost in home sales in this community.
I intend to keep tracking ArrowCreek as well as Montreux and would be happy to discuss it more with you. I will also keep you posted on the litigation settlement.
Take Care and have a nice weekend.
Donna Spear
NAS
“” I would read this as a stabilization of the ArrowCreek market – except with fewer sales – what do you think?””
It never ends.
billddrummer
To NAS,
I know exactly what you’re talking about.
Stabilization requires fewer sales. It’s clear that the old sales pace was unsustainable. Some people, BB in particular, called the bubble three years ago.
Let’s see how much inventory exists in ArrowCreek–not just MLS listings, but shadow inventory of brown-lawned homes in pre-foreclosure mode, FSBOs (no one would have attempted FSBOs in ArrowCreek 18 months ago–those homes need staging!), and houses that banks are holding out of the MLS for fear they will crush comps.
Match up sales with TRUE inventory, not just MLS actives, and if you can show me faster absorption, I’ll believe in stabilization. Otherwise, it’s just a bunch of numbers to me.
Sorry, I’m normally more polite here. But enough’s enough, as Jiminy Cricket would say.
Future Buyer
Thanks for the info Guy. I like to compare, because we are still trying to figure out where we want to eventually buy once things stabilize. I also want to see how Golden Gate Golf runs things and the price of membership–That is still up in the air at this point. There is a lot of rental homes that are hidden inventory in ArrowCreek–I think half my street gave up on selling and now are rentals (it’s a long street that has a lot of for sale signs) and still a lot of listings, so it’s still going to take time–however, probably not as long as it’s going to take Montreux to hit bottom!
Sean
Here is an example of some shadow inventory… http://reno.craigslist.org/reo/896188894.html A home that is going to be foreclosed on and the owner trying to make some money off it before the bank takes posession, ridicilous. Arrowcreek has a long way to go till the bottom just like the rest of the 400k+ market.
Future Buyer
Sean-I have also seen that house on Craig’s list. Should say–“Move in this month, but the bank may kick you out next month, I owe the bank tons of money but let’s try to capitalize on the situation!” What a total joke. I guess they are at the very least, being honest with whoever moves in!
I agree–the bottom is a ways off, and I’m not sure housing prices will ever get back to the levels of 2005-2006, so eventually the renters waiting for a market rebound, may have to face the music.
billddrummer
To followup with Sean and Future Buyer,
This gentleman has two homes in foreclosure. The one in Arrowcreek is on a $650,000 deed. He also has a $639,200 Option ARM on a house in Hidden Valley, which went into default 10/1. That loan is a 40 year am, 10/1 option with a 1.5% start rate, 115% cap.
He’s also got a $25,000 IRS tax lien outstanding.
As a highly respected investment adivsor, John Mauldin, says, “There’s never just one roach.”
His property history is a string of refinances going back to the early 1990s.
Now he wants to stay in the ArrowCreek house for $500/month while you pay hime $1485????
Ludicrous.
billddrummer
To followup with Sean and Future Buyer,
This gentleman has two homes in foreclosure. The one in Arrowcreek is on a $650,000 deed. He also has a $639,200 Option ARM on a house in Hidden Valley, which went into default 10/1. That loan is a 40 year am, 10/1 option with a 1.5% start rate, 115% cap.
He’s also got a $25,000 IRS tax lien outstanding.
As a highly respected investment adivsor, John Mauldin, says, “There’s never just one roach.”
His property history is a string of refinances going back to the early 1990s.
Now he wants to stay in the ArrowCreek house for $500/month while you pay him $1485????
Ludicrous.