Last year Diane posted historical sales figures for Montreux (see Montreux Sales History). She updated those numbers in January of this year (see Montreux Sales Update).
Recently a reader asked that we update the numbers to include 2008 sales to date. Below are the latest sales numbers taken from MLS.
|
Year |
No. of Solds |
Dollar Volume |
Avg. Price |
Median Price |
Avg. $/sq.ft. |
Avg. DOM |
|
2004 |
32 |
$41,473,335 |
$1,296,042 |
$1,130,185 |
$317 |
218 |
|
2005 |
36 |
$54,480,404 |
$1,513,345 |
$1,433,750 |
$384 |
167 |
|
2006 |
26 |
$41,774,687 |
$1,606,719 |
$1,479,422 |
$399 |
317 |
|
2007 |
28 |
$48,798,131 |
$1,742,790 |
$1,600,000 |
$425 |
406 |
|
2008* |
10 |
$15,105,183 |
$1,510,518 |
$1,585,092 |
$382 |
291 |
* denotes partial year (YTD as of October 19, 2008)
|
Year |
No. of Solds |
Dollar Volume |
Avg. Price |
Median Price |
Avg. $/sq.ft. |
Avg. DOM |
|
2004 |
24 |
$25,221,330 |
$1,050,889 |
$1,025,000 |
$325 |
224 |
|
2005 |
21 |
$25,303,571 |
$1,204,932 |
$1,188,076 |
$365 |
144 |
|
2006 |
14 |
$17,323,902 |
$1,237,422 |
$1,213,448 |
$371 |
264 |
|
2007 |
11 |
$13,239,011 |
$1,203,546 |
$1,195,000 |
$364 |
339 |
|
2008* |
4 |
$4,310,000 |
$1,077,500 |
$1,085,000 |
$328 |
267 |
* denotes partial year (YTD as of October 19, 2008)
|
Year |
No. of Solds |
Dollar Volume |
Avg. Price |
Median Price |
Avg. $/sq.ft. |
Avg. DOM |
|
2004 |
8 |
$16,252,005 |
$2,031,501 |
$1,901,550 |
$295 |
199 |
|
2005 |
15 |
$29,176,833 |
$1,945,122 |
$1,788,702 |
$411 |
200 |
|
2006 |
12 |
$24,450,785 |
$2,037,565 |
$1,991,570 |
$431 |
378 |
|
2007 |
17 |
$35,559,120 |
$2,091,713 |
$1,975,000 |
$464 |
450 |
|
2008* |
6 |
$10,795,183 |
$1,799,197 |
$1,607,500 |
$417 |
307 |
* denotes partial year (YTD as of October 19, 2008)
Currently there are 51 houses listed for sale in Montreux. 48 listed as Active and three in some state of pending-ness.
What about sales? As you can see in the tables above, ten sales have closed in 2008. Because we’re in October, one might say Montreux is averaging one sale per month. At that rate, and given the number of listings, one might conclude that Montreux has at least four years of inventory listed today. However, closer inspection of 2008’s sales reveals that all ten occurred in the first half of this year. So, in actuality there has not been a Montreux sale recorded in our MLS since June 27th.
Agents differ on the time frame they use when calculating inventory, but whether they use the number of sales in the last 30, 60, or even 90 days, they’re going find zero sales, and consequently end up with an infinite supply of inventory at the moment.
The good news is there are three Montreux properties pending at the moment. The asking prices of these three pendings are $1.495M; $1.565M; and $1.725M. Two went into contract in September. One looks like it is contingent on the sale of another home, and has been “pending” since June. At any rate, just one of these closing will bring the Montreux inventory level back to four years.
Depending on what segment you’re looking at above, average sale prices are off between 10 and 14%, 2008 vs. 2007. Average Sold price per square foot looks to be down about 10% from 2007 prices.
Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS (NNRMLS) – October 2008
smarten
Thanks Guy –
I don’t mean to put you on the spot but don’t you have one of those 51 greater than $1.5M Montreux listings? How many months now, and it’s not one of the 3 pendings is it?
Based upon this reality, what if anything is your seller doing to actually sell his/her home? If his/her home were in Incline Village, he’d/she’d have to be dropping his/her sales price by at least $300K. Is this in the cards?
Tom
I recently saw about three Montreux homes for sale at around $900k or so, just inside the gate a piece. They were about 3,500 square feet. Did all of those sell? I think maybe they were pocket listings, so might not be in your data. However, there are houses to be bought in there shy of $1 million.
Guy Johnson
Smarten,
As a matter of fact I do have one of those $1.5M+ listings. Unfortunately, it’s not one of the pendings I mentioned. We’re approaching five months now. In light of the most recent numbers I’ve pulled for Montreux, I believe a meeting is in order with my client. I will present the data, assess his level of motivation, and go from there.
Reno Ignoramus
Guy, how many houses in all of Reno-Sparks have sold ytd? How many of them were more than $1 million? How many of them were more than $1.5 million?
How many cardiologists can dance on the head of a realtor’s pin?
The Reno-Sparks housing market is returning to its pedestrian roots. Without the Voodoo witchdoctors to hand out silly money, the segment of the market over $1 million is becoming as lonely as the coyotes howling in the Nevada night.
Future Buyer
I have been watching those Montreux houses sit and commented a few months back. You can’t get much land or house for your money in Montreux right now and a lot of the houses for even 2 million plus have no privacy. I have been wondering how long the houses will sit before prices start to lower. There was a Zahler built home on Lausanne that lowered to 1.8 million and then was raised back up to 2.75 million–What was the deal with that?
Has anyone noticed the over 1 & 2 millions selling in West Southwest–Caughlin Ranch/Juniper Ridge/Truckee River area? They have really started to move since Sept 1. Montreux should figure out their secret…
Future Buyer
RI–looks like we posted at the same time and yes most of the doctors want to live near the hospitals in the West Southwest area–maybe that is the secret?!!
BanteringBear
It looks as though Blue Bounty is going out of business. It’s a shame, as I used to love Blue Bounty when I lived in Reno. The owner cited “the economy” as the reason.
What does this have to do with Montreux one might ask? Everything. As small businesses continue to close their doors, there are fewer and fewer high income earners in the fold. Doctors, lawyers, small business owners- these are the people who make much more than the median, and who the luxury market is dependent upon to survive. Sure, there will always be some of them, but not as many as there was. This translates to fewer sales of such properties, which translates to even lower prices.
billddrummer
I’m sad that Blue Bounty is closing, but I never shopped there.
A year ago I moved to the neighborhood and drive by the store several times a day. Never went inside. Now there will be another empty space in an aging Reno strip mall.
How’s Ben’s Discount Liquor doing, by the way? After all, you can buy cheap wine and liquor at Wal-mart and Costco. Is that why they went into the property business? (I only say that because of the commercial mall on N. McCarran across from Wildcreek Golf Course, and the office addition being built at the 4th & Keystone store, and the newer location on South Virgnia across from Moana Nursery.)
And aren’t there some successful small business owners in Reno? Why does a store closing get all the press coverage, but a store opening doesn’t?
I think it’s because bad news sells more papers than good news, but that’s just me.
Rumors are swirling around Circuit City and whether they are on the brink of filing Chapter 11. True to form, I’ll buy a WSJ today to read the story.
I guess bad news does sell more papers than good news. I’ll stop whining now.
DowntownMakeoverDude
If you dont get much privacy in Montreaux what’s the point in buying all the way out there? Do you know what kind of house you can get in old Southwest for that price? If I were rich and stupid enough to buy a house for $1+ million, I’ll take the Frederick De Longchamps mansion at 815 Marsh for $1.1 million. Close to downtown, in a beautiful neighborhood named best neighborhood in Reno by RNR readers, and living in part of history. Let’s see if the Montreaux architects are remembered in textbooks in 50 years.
Guy Johnson
Reno Ignoramus, I believe your questions were rhetorical, but if not, here are the figures:
3,219 total YTD sales in Reno-Sparks
56 YTD sales > $1M
22 YTD sales > $1.5M
Reno Ignoramus
Thanks Guy for the stats.
So sales over $ 1 million amount to 1.73% of total sales.
Sales over $1.5 million amount to 0.68% of total sales.
The chances of one selling a house in this price range in the Reno market are a bit better than the chances that Jimmy Hoffa will show up for dinner one of these days. But only a bit.
BanteringBear
RI posted:
“So sales over $ 1 million amount to 1.73% of total sales.”
Of the better than 4200 properties listed on the Reno/Sparks mls, 279 are for at least $1 million. That’s better than 6.5% of listings, yet they make up just 1.73% of sales. Uh-oh, looks like we have a rather nasty inventory distortion! Where oh where are all those millionaires we were promised?!
Reno Ignoramus
Actually, Bear, they were called the “Rich Californians.” You remember the Rich Californians Theory. The RCT held that Reno’s housing prices would ascend forever because of the endless supply of cash laden equity drenched Rich Californians coming here and finding Reno prices to be dirt cheap. During the height of the bubble, the RCT took on urban legend proportions at cocktail parties and barbeques in Reno. While very few people could identify a Rich Califiornian with whom they were personally acquainted, all kinds of people claimed to be aware of their existence. Legend had it that all the houses being built were being bought by Rich Californians who “paid cash and still put a half a million dollars in the bank.” It was these mythical creatures, said the RCT, that ensured that Reno’s prices would climb essentially forever. For surely, you could never lose money buying a house in Reno.
The RCT held that any supposed bubble was an “unimaginative metaphor” espoused by “doom and gloomers”, and “bitter renters”. The chief slogan of the RCT was that one had better “buy now or get priced out of Reno forever”. Also, “everybody wants to live here because Reno is special.”
Anybody who suggested that Reno’s frenzied run-up in prices was the result of a Voodoo lending industry run amok was dismissed as a “hostile pessimist.”
Now, with the median price down 30%, and some houses down 40% from the bubble high, the RCT has fallen into disfavor. It’s hard to make the case for the RCT, especially at the high end of the market, when sales over $1.5 million comprise 0.68% of sales.
Future Buyer
RI–wonderful post on the “Rich Californians”! About 6 months ago when I started to read the realty blogs to get the inside scoop, Plevil also spoke like this–“Stop low-balling there are rich buyers coming in from China.” I haven’t seen any of them either?!!
smarten
So in your opinion Guy, are there ready, willing and able Montreux buyers sitting on the sidelines simply waiting for prices to drop? Are you and other agents seeing interest in Montreux however, not at these prices?
If the answer’s yes, then you’re looking at Incline Village. If the answer’s no, you’re looking at Sparks.
If you’re looking at Incline Village, then your delusional seller needs to drop his/her sales price by at least $300K if he/she expects to generate any interest. If it’s going to be one of these $100K price reductions, your seller is wasting his/her time. All he’ll/she’ll accomplish is chasing the market down; always being at least a day late and a dollar short.
Or do you suspect your seller’s going to tell you he/she really doesn’t need to sell? If this is the message, look for the home to pop up for rent on Craigslist.
To me it is an interesting test as to whether delusional Montreux sellers are forced into “price capituation.” Please keep us informed.
Two other comments: Tom who in the past has expressed interest in Montreux speaks of three properties in I believe the Renaissance subdivision; to the left of Bordeaux just after you pass through the front gate. I know two of these homes ended up being lost in foreclosure. IMO this is not a particularly pleasing part of Montreux; the architectural design, construction and lot sizes don’t fit in with the rest of the community. This is the area I predicted more than a year ago would have to drop in price to the $750K range before I found it interesting.
Then there’s Ms. Honey Muffin Plevel. I remember reading she comes from a family of Bay Area home builders. If I’m not mistaken, she had two or three $2M+ Montreux listings developed by her family [she probably sold them the land]. Other than her so called Chinese investor from Shanghai who purportedly offered $100K MORE than her listing price to purchase one of them sight unseen [this is an example of a “Plevelism”], I don’t recall her admitting to any other activity. It would be interesting to me to learn of her her actual listings/sales history at Montreux [Guy?].
BTW, you’ll recall Michelle talked about how easy it was to get your lender to recast your mortgage’s terms/conditions by using a little bit of her “honey.” On October 6 she replayed the tune blogging how whe had “just [received] a letter from Washington Mutual that said, just call and a modification package will be immediately sent out…There you go.”
I’ve had a WAMU mortgage for many years. Funny; I’m still waiting for my letter!
john
Smarten – I agree with your points but the fact remains that many Montreux sellers have buckets of money and are able to ride out the storm if they so choose. Whether they want to is another issue, but most have the financial wherewithal to do so. Guy’s listing is perfect example of a seller who has probably has lots of spare change sitting around, as someone pointed out in previous blog on this topic. If you are a casino magnate you are probably not too worried about selling your house in a down market. In fact, you probably have more pressing issues at hand in a down economy. In this case, as in with many homes in Montreux, if it takes 2-3 years to unload your home to that “special buyer” at the right price, then so be it. And yes, this does not apply to the much lower quality, now much lower priced Renaissance homes near the entrance of Montreux that are not in the pines and are really just overpriced tract homes with a little stylistic detail thrown in. Several were purchased by RE agents at well over 1 mil at the peak of bubble mania, 3 of these are now in foreclosure as a result. One agent who foreclosed and still has the listing used to tour customers to it in his Hummer. The Hummer has probably been sold by now, but not the house. This part of Montreux reflects more accurately the problems and excesses of the broader Reno market in general, while I would argue the rest of Montreux does not. Most of the sellers in Montreux simply don’t face similar pressures as formely speculating, currently foreclosed RE agents, and if they do, they are few and far between the pines.
BanteringBear
I’m going to have to vehemently disagree with John. There are people over leveraged in every single market and sub market in the entire USA. To suggest that Montreux is somehow immune to the massive wealth destruction we’re seeing is wishful thinking at best. There’s a reason for the expression “the bigger they are, the harder they fall”.
I’ve got a sibling in West LA who has relayed to me the magnificent failures of some former “upper crust” types who made bad bets on everything from real estate to the stock market and beyond. They’re losing properties FAR superior to Montreux. Bankruptcy is NOT only reserved for the average citizen. In fact, I think that GreenNV proved this point when he posted an NOD from, where was it, Franktown Rd.? Let’s quit this “Montreux is special” talk, or “the Montreux area in the trees is immune” BS.
Future Buyer
I know 3 prospective home buyers for Montreux who have been holding out, but prices have to drop much more than 300k. These are almost 3 million dollar houses on almost an acre of land at about 5,000 square feet. 1.7 million in Montruex will get you a “fixer upper” or a postage stamp/ditch backyard. How warped is that? I can tell you not even most doctors want to spend 3 million on a house-they work too hard to be saddled with that kind of debt–even all the ists–cardiologists, radiologists, anesthesiologists. None of these people (I know) are married to the idea of living in Montreux either. There are some doctors who live above their means, but most are pretty smart with their money. That leaves you with trustfunders and corporate executives to buy these homes. Guy–do you have any info on the buyers of over 2 million dollar homes and what they do for a living? That would be really interesting! I suppose with interests rates where they are now on jumbo mortgages, it is also going to change the playing field. As far as the Renaissance area I agree– I would much rather live in Callahan Ranch than spend 1 million dollars to say “I live in Montreux”–there is no beauty or land in that Montreux neighborhood. As for the argument to the fact that Montreux sellers have so much money they can wait to sell–have at it!! I hope the retirees live long enough to see a sale. If I sound a bit bitter regarding the housing market, that is why we have decided to take a year off from looking. I still enjoy reading about what’s going on though!
Future Buyer
One more thing on the Montreux sales update topic-Guy, I would be interested to see the same data on ArrowCreek sales. Just from my observations I don’t think sales have come to the complete hault that we have seen in Montreux, but my guess is that cost per square foot has dropped significantly more due to the foreclosures that have occured in ArrowCreek and not Montreux. I know Plevil will disagree and says prices have dropped less than 20% and the golf course sale is going to help, etc. etc. but the numbers don’t usually lie (and she is far too biased to believe anyway, since she lives there). It is also interesting to note that Montreux experienced an enormous delay in the housing recession. Most of the other Reno neighborhoods started to decline in sales years before Montreux. I have concluded that Montreux is only delayed and not immune from significant price reductions and they will eventually follow ArrowCreeks lead, not through forced foreclosures, but through really rich people just getting tired of sitting and eventually cutting their losses. However, while they are doing that, I think a lot of the qualified buyers interested in this side of town will be looking elsewhere because the economy at this point is too scary to invest that much money in real estate.
smarten
Thanks to Mike I subscribe to Mitch Argon’s daily foreclosure updates. Mitch just sent an update for MLS #80013234; one of the two recent Montreux SFR foreclosures on [16865] Delacroix Court. The new asking price is a mind numbing $645.9K. I say “numbing” because look at the yearly property taxes [$9,435]!
Could this finally be the beginning to realistic pricing in Montreux?