March median sold price, units, DOM, and $/sq.ft.

27 comments

1. 

   April 6, 2009 at 11:03 AM

   Sully

   Guy, what happened to # of houses for sale and median asking price?

2. 

   April 6, 2009 at 12:10 PM

   Steve

   Guy: Dude what is up with 12900 Silver Wolf, is this for real?

   2F 020 03/18/2009 670,000 HSBC BANK USA,
   3BF 020 09/03/2008 1,250,000
   3BFM 020 05/18/2007 0
   3BGG 020 12/06/2005 0
   1G 012 06/30/2004 200,000

3. 

   April 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM

   BanteringBear

   I still don’t like the fact that you changed the stock used to compile the median. Until last month, all of the discussion regarding median price was based upon the prior method which included condos. Now, you’ve even managed to manipulate the market peak through these numerical distortions. I don’t know of any major metro area which does NOT include condos in their median prices. Can you imagine New York, SF, Chicago or San Diego doing this?

   This new calculation simply inflates the median since condos are, for the most part, cheaper. If you would go back to your old method, we would see the median falling below $190k. It’s nice to see the breakdown, but to eliminate the old information all together is suspect, IMO. Simply ignoring the problematic condo market is more than just a little convenient.

   What it does illustrate, though, is that we’ve still got a LONG way to go. At this point, given the carnage on the employment front, a return to a median of less than $150k looks conservative.

4. 

   April 6, 2009 at 7:44 PM

   Reno Ignoramus

   I believe that the RGJ is reporting last month’s median to be $188K. I believe that includes condos. I think it’s helpful to have BOTH the median with and without condos, but if only one is going to be made available, then I agree with BB that condos need to be put back in.
   This really is changing the sample in the middle of the study, so to speak. Perhaps worthy of the way the NAR works, but hopefully not for the RRB.

5. 

   April 6, 2009 at 7:55 PM

   SkrapGuy

   I agree about the condos. For the last three years we have been using a data set (that included condos) that said the median peaked in August of 2005. Now, for some reason, we have revised the data (to take condos out) and the median peaked in January of 2006.
   If we were using the consistent data, the median would be down more than 45% from the peak, and closer to 50%.
   What’s the point here? Are we trying to make the numbers look better than they really are by cooking the data?

6. 

   April 6, 2009 at 8:03 PM

   Waldo

   Guy,

   You could take out houses with less than 3 bedrooms in the 89436 zip code also. That ought to really help prop up the numbers.

   It’s a pretty strange day when the RGJ is reporting more thorough data than the RRB.

7. 

   April 6, 2009 at 9:34 PM

   GratefulD_420

   Steve – As unbelievable as it is seems, this is highly likely. If you can get in past the gates… the whole street [neighborhood]is a bubble disaster. The last time I drove it a month ago, every one in three was for sale.
   There is actually a house that is trying to be sold when it is NOT Completed.

   http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12930-Silver-Wolf-Rd-Reno-NV-89511/79722688_zpid/

   p.s. – That means the house in mention sold for $119 per sq ft. That is high end + 1700 sqft garage + 2.9 acre of usable level land in a gated community on the Wolf Run Golf Course.

   So what does that make other houses in that neghborhood and the next neighborhood (AC) worth? what does that make your home worth?

8. 

   April 6, 2009 at 11:25 PM

   Martin

   Guy says there were 355 houses sold last month.

   Mike says there were 513 NOS recorded last month.

   Is this what an impending bottom looks like? When the number of houses becoming REO is greater than the number of houses selling? Is THAT what the bottom callers are looking for?

9. 

   April 7, 2009 at 7:01 AM

   smarten

   I agree w/some of the other comments that it’s “unfair” to change the components of monthly unit sales/median pricing. But really, it’s no different than changing the makeup of other indicies [such as the stock market] and then comparing today’s numbers to yesterday’s.

   I also think it’s unfair to lump numbers for SFRs w/condos in order to monitor “trends” when there are a glut of very low priced condos and not everyone is interested in this segment of the marketplace.

   I’ve said before and I’ll repeat it for newer posters that I believe it’s error to rely upon any number in a vacuum that purportedly measures the residential sales market as a whole. A simple example is comparing what has been going on in the under $200K SFR market to the over $500K SFR market. Whereas the former is close to bottoming [if it hasn’t already], the latter continues to be in absolute denial [although that may finally be starting to change].

   Also, it seems to me few on this blog are interested in the same segments of the residential housing market, and some aren’t even interested in segments but rather, want to lump the entire market into a single all inclusive number.

   So I say it would be interesting to see the numbers separately broken out for SFRs, condos and PUDs [if numbers are readily available for this segment of the residential housing unit market] if it’s not too much additional work for Guy. It would also be interesting [at least to me] to see how segments of the market other than SFRs have performed over the similar time periods highlighted in Guy’s most recent posting. Are the trends the same, or is one or more segments of the market artificially dragging down [or propping up] others?

10. 

    April 7, 2009 at 7:56 AM

    billddrummer

    Chronology on the Wolf Run house:

    12/05 Bought with a $995,000 1st DOT (Wells Fargo)
    03/06 Got a $250,000 2nd (Wells Fargo)
    05/07 Refinanced with a $1,275,000 Option ARM, 1% start rate, 8.375% run rate, 115% cap (Countrywide)
    06/08 NOD Filed
    09/08 Trustees Deed for $1,250,000
    03/09 Sold out of foreclosure for $670,000

    Drop of 47%. And the sale price/s.f. is in line with the total market, however you slice it–$118.82.

11. 

    April 7, 2009 at 7:57 AM

    billddrummer

    Another thing: I don’t think any payments were ever made on the Countrywide loan. The balance on the NOS was nearly $1,350,000.

12. 

    April 7, 2009 at 8:08 AM

    Steve

    Thanks Bill, Wow cashed in and went to Mexico. This just sucks, I live in Fieldcreek, I have a full grasp of the reality of this market. Nothing has sold under $150 ft until this one and wolf creek for $140, here we go yee ha!

    I think that Fieldcreek is one of the best developments in this entire valley, the majority of buyers were prudent. I have seen more houses here pulled off the market because profit would be less than desirable. The owner is just willing to hold. Also banks have waled the long road such as this one for a full year before action, they do not want to depreciate their holdings any more than necessary.

    Oh well have a good day everybody!

13. 

    April 7, 2009 at 8:56 AM

    GratefulD_420

    Steve – it’s going to be slaughter house for the fatty’s in FieldCreek and Arrowcreek.

    Jlook at the listings on that one street…

    http://www.dicksonrealty.com/listing/top_search?address=Silver%20Wolf&mls=&region=1

    There are 3 lots, one 1/2 finished monstrosity, & 8 homes from $650k to $2.7 M. Sorry,but “prudent” buyers do not exist on this side of FieldCreek.

    Better close your eyes, cause this is going to get ugly. $118 sqft, in Field creek is just the begining…

14. 

    April 7, 2009 at 9:40 AM

    3niner

    Guy,

    I find your new presentation very helpful. Keeping in mind that we are looking only at SFRs, you are showing 4 different predictors / indicators of a market peak.

    “Average DOM” bottomed in October 2004, predicting the peak about a year later. The “# Sold” peak occurred in June 2005, predicting the price peak a few months later. There is a “Price per SqFt” peak in October 2005, and a “Sold Price” peak in January 2006.

    Obviously, it’s easier to “predict” the past, than the future, but it seems clear that this data could have been used to anticipate the market peak. While I have only been reading this blog since late 2007, it seems likely that BB (and likely others) did anticipate the peak.

    In predicting the bottom, I would expect the DOM to start falling well in advance of it, followed by a volume peak, then finally the price bottoms. Of course, this may be a “U” shaped bottom, rather than a “V” shaped one, which would allow ample time to react after the fact.

    In any case, this data tells me that we are nowhere near a bottom yet.

    I have a comment on the columns left out. I consider the “# for sale” and “median asking price” to be nearly meaningless. Almost all houses are for sale at the right price, and many listings are completely unrealistic. As for the asking price, why not include all of the offers made by prospective buyers? It would mean just as much.

15. 

    April 7, 2009 at 10:02 AM

    billddrummer

    To 3niner,

    I agree with you. And until more undistressed homes are sold than enter the market through foreclosures or short sales, don’t expect prices to stabilize.

    With the number of new NODs and NOSs added each month, the median sale price will continue to drop as long as those sales dominate the market.

    The percentage has been above 80% for some time now, and it shows no signs of dropping.

    For those attempting to predict when the bottom comes into view, look at that ratio for an indicator. When it drops below 50%, you might find the bottom in sight. But from my view, it may take years to get there.

16. 

    April 7, 2009 at 10:11 AM

    Sully

    3niner, I use the median asking vs selling to determine average discount. Number available was use to determine percentage of inventory selling vs listings.

    Although I don’t need this info any longer, I am charting the trends.

    It may not be useful to you, but when I first started looking 2 years ago – I had no idea where we were in relation to where we should have been.

    Since then I have developed my own sense of value for the various areas and my approximate offering price.

    So, where you consider this info meaningless, someone new to the area might not.

17. 

    April 7, 2009 at 10:53 AM

    Guy Johnson

    You guys are a tough crowd. One of my points of separating the condo and house data is that the condo and stick built markets are two different markets. Take a look at the condo data in today’s post and compare it to the housing data above. The condo market peaked in April 2007. Houses peaked in January 2006; fifteen months earlier. While both markets are well off their peaks, condos have taken a much greater hit than houses. Condos have lost nearly two-thirds off their peak pricing; while houses have fallen 45%.
    This kind of data is lost when all housing categories are combined.

    Another reason I have separated the data is because my clientele are looking to purchase either a house or condo; rarely, if ever, both. The condo (or house) data will be much more valuable to those buyers looking to purchase in the condo (or house) market.

    And to the implications that I am purposefully manipulating data in order to prop up prices…well, I won’t even go there.

    However, for those of you who are curious, the combined March median is $190,000.

18. 

    April 7, 2009 at 10:55 AM

    Guy Johnson

    Sully, I’ll work on adding the historical “for sale” and asking prices. I’ve run into a couple of obstacles in compiling those numbers.

19. 

    April 7, 2009 at 12:54 PM

    Reno Ignoramus

    Guy, I believe that all you have to do is add a single sentence onto your monthly reports that describes the combined SFR and condo median sales price. Then us purists can be happy, and everybody benefits from the expanded data breakouts as well.
    I believe there is some value in knowing that the median the way it used to be caluculated here is now down to $190K. Thanks.

20. 

    April 7, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    3niner

    Guy,

    I just want to say that I like what you are doing with the data. I understand that this takes a lot of work, and believe that you are providing good, and useful, information.

21. 

    April 7, 2009 at 4:19 PM

    CommercialLender

    Help me understand where a townhome falls: condo or SFR? I’ve seen them over the years classified into either group with no real consistency.

22. 

    April 7, 2009 at 4:47 PM

    Guy Johnson

    3niner, thank you for your empathy and appreciation of my effort. Your remarks are appreciated.

23. 

    April 7, 2009 at 4:54 PM

    Guy Johnson

    CommercialLender, on our regional MLS (NNRMLS) four classifications of residential properties exist. These include: Site/Stickbuilt; Condominium/Townhouse; Manufactured/Modular; and Shared Ownership. So, in answer to your question “townhouse” falls under my condo data.

24. 

    April 7, 2009 at 4:55 PM

    Guy Johnson

    RI, good idea. I’ll include the combined median in some manner.

25. 

    April 8, 2009 at 10:05 AM

    Free Falling

    Guy,

    I have been lurking on this blog for about three years now and applaud you on the effort to provide us all with data. The RRB is hands down the best source of compiled market data I have found in any market I have been involved in. Elsewhere, I have always had to do my own data manipulation to learn anything from the raw data.

    I purchased in April 2005, knowing full well that we were at or near the peak of the market, but grossly underestimating the magnitude of the correction to follow. (Sometimes you need a home to live in and renting isn’t appealing.)

    What astounds me is that Countrywide was still doing 100% LTV Option ARM refis in 2007 (based on absurd appraisals) when any drunk living under a bridge knew that the market was free falling.

    Had I know that was going on I would have better estimated the correction to follow.

    So how many of the “I told you so” bears on this blog had the guts to sell Countrywide short back in 2007? That was the real play on this market.

    Keep up the good work Guy.

26. 

    April 8, 2009 at 6:03 PM

    Guy Johnson

    Thank you, FreeFalling. …and I will.

27. 

    April 15, 2009 at 2:07 AM

    NVMojo

    I have always appreciated this blog and the bloggers here. When we are ready to buy, we know who we are going to call.

    Commenters are appreciated too as discussion and decent dispute gets me thinking!

    Peace!