Condo median sold price, units, DOM, and $/sq.ft. – April

19 comments

1. 

   May 11, 2009 at 6:05 PM

   Reno Ignoramus

   One more tick, and we are at 50% off of the median bubble high. That means the median will have to increase 100% to get back to the bubble high. Now how long do you all think it is going to take the median to double at this point?

   Those folks who think that whenever this housing market meltdown finally ends that we are going to see a V shaped recovery and that prices are going to return to the bubble highs are in for a long, long, long, wait.

   While I am not advocating it, I can certainly see how debtowners who bought at or near the bubble high, who are looking at being hundreds of thousands of dollars upside down now, might consider just walking away.

   Next up is the Alt-A and option ARM crater.

2. 

   May 12, 2009 at 10:46 AM

   3niner

   Per RI: “Now how long do you all think it is going to take the median to double at this point?”

   That depends on the meaning of “double”. If we are talking inflation adjusted dollars, probably not in any of our lifetimes.

   If we are talking nominal dollars, it might happen within 5 or 10 years. Recently the federal government monetized $1T in new debt. This is the first time this has been done in recent memory. With the currently planned levels of federal spending, this is likely to become necessary more and more often over the next few years. It will eventually force high inflation.

3. 

   May 12, 2009 at 1:41 PM

   Nelly

   3niner, the kind of inflation that would cause house values to double in the next 5 years would be so huge that mortgage interest rates would go to 18% as they did in the early 80s. Do you have any idea what impact 18% mortgage money has on the appreciation of houses?

   You are not going to have 15% annual inflation and 5% mortgage rates. You may have 15% annual inflation and 18% mortgage rates. And let me tell you that 18% mortgage money is a bitch and does very little to cause the value of houses to go up. I’m old enough to remember the early 80s.

4. 

   May 12, 2009 at 10:16 PM

   Worried Guy

   If you think the Gvt’s can so easily inflate themselves out of this mess, then how have homes lost close to 50% from their peak 2005-06′ levels? Wait until commodities further collapse also…Folks will be stunned by the pervasiveness of debt deflation….

5. 

   May 13, 2009 at 9:12 AM

   CommercialLender

   Worried,

   The gov’t did not start attempting to “inflate its way out of this mess” until the 4th week of September, with TARP. (There was the earlier April 08 ‘stimulus’ of a couple of hundred bucks pps, but this was so insignificant as to have no effect overall, and certainly not on housing/lending.) Then, it took weeks/months to figure out TARP, which BTW has not been fully spent yet. Then, the Obama stimulus happened, then PPIP, TALF, Treasury auctions, Fed note purchases, etc. – none of which are fully in the system yet.

   So, the deflation happened before gov’t’s monetary stimulus. BUUUUUUUTTTTT, when the government’s / governments’ fiscal stimuli finally take effect, massive inflation is the only foreseeable outcome.

   IMO, what we’ll see in housing is high long term mortgage rates and simultaneous stagnation in pricing for a lengthy period of time.

6. 

   May 13, 2009 at 9:54 AM

   BanteringBear

   To this point, there has been zero growth in the monetary supply. If there is a substantial inflationary event, it is probably 3-5 years out. We already had inflation during the boom. It’s deflation for the foreseeable future.

7. 

   May 13, 2009 at 10:56 AM

   CommercialLender

   BB,
   Many people overlook that ‘inflation’ is not just the physical printing of more money, it can also be the devaluation of the underlying credit of the fiat issuer, in our case the US Govt. (or combo thereof). We are not necessarily seeing the former (yet), but we are already seeing the latter, namely China and our other creditors (and in the UK with theirs) demanding higher long term rates to sell our bonds than the Treasury estimated. This happened again last week, but was not widely reported.

   The more Obama and team follow Bush’s lead by spending like the proverbial drunken sailor (no offense to sailors out there – they hate to be compared to politicians!), the less value our dollars carry. China will demand more dollars to sell us their cheap crap, and commodities prices will again increase in dollar-terms.

   Housing? Prices will stay depressed because buyers en masse won’t feel confident enough to buy for some time to come, in part because I think their wages will continue to stagnate as companies continue to struggle. Taxes and consumer goods will steadily go up because of this inflation, draining excess cash from buyers, while long term fixed rates will go up to compensate our creditors to hold our bonds, so big ticket items like homes and luxury cars will languish.

   Its just starting now; not fully there yet, but the slide has begun and will only pick up steam as the govt’s stimuli continue. We may finally FEEL it 2-5 years from now en masse, but its happening now.

   I hope to God I’m wrong, though.

8. 

   May 13, 2009 at 5:20 PM

   Worried Guy

   The idea that the Gvt. programs will lead to endless inflation and/or hyperinflation with money velocity going negative is a complete fallacy. The gvt. can print ’til the moon doesn’t shine, but if money will not exchange hands, then you have what we are witnessing. Rapidly declining prices in housing and other areas. This is the end product of a senseless and unsustainable credit bubble that must completely unwind now. The issue of China and Commodities is more illusion than reality. China is printing Renimbi to stave off the collapse in the export model. That will end bad also for Asia and for commodity prices irregardless to the nuts in Washington.

9. 

   May 14, 2009 at 8:09 AM

   3niner

   Per Nelly: “I’m old enough to remember the early 80s.”

   And I’m old enough to remember the 1970s, when the high inflation started. In fact, I entered the job market in the early 70s, and it was not easy to get established.

   My father bought a house in 1967, in 1985, its nominal value was much higher than what he paid for it. Yes, the high interest rates lowered inflation adjusted housing prices, for a while, but the nominal prices kept rising.

   You might try looking at some historical data to put some things in perspective.

10. 

    May 14, 2009 at 8:18 AM

    3niner

    Per BB: “To this point, there has been zero growth in the monetary supply.”

    True, but that is because the credit multiplier has recently dropped enough to temporarily compensate for the new money being printed. Our current spending policies are committing us to printing much, much more money, and the credit multiplier cannot drop enough to compensate for all of it. If these policies do not change (soon), we will see inflation that is greater than what I remember from the late 70s and early 80s.

11. 

    May 14, 2009 at 9:29 AM

    Worried Guy

    How does the credit multiplier function if the bulk of your real economy involves very few willing private individuals and businesses to exchange those newly printed funds?…The velocity of money is heading into the red zone…The argument for inflation can only succeed if the Federal Government becomes the primary buyer and seller of goods and services in the entire economy. Does this sound rational?

12. 

    May 14, 2009 at 9:57 AM

    CommercialLender

    WG and BB contend that this money is trapped, not making it into the system, and thus despite the inflationary policies and practices of the govt at the moment, there’s no inflation. (generally, not putting words in mouths). And that’s what we are seeing at the moment.

    My contention is that all this monetary stimuli, including consumers’ debt reduction and increased savings and banks hoarding cash, is acting like a coiled spring, for now. Sure, the economy is deflated now, but these stimuli will spring at some point with velocity and force. My further contention is that inflation will hit hard at the same time taxpayers’ tax burdens will be oppressive, so money will flow into goods and services (and govt) at a greater rate due to inflation, but big-ticket items will languish such as homes, cars and boats. Prices for commodities, bread, milk, etc will inflate rapidly then, eating up the buying power of those who would otherwise desire to buy big-ticket items.

    If you ask me, it is stagflation we are going to experience, from the stagdeflation we seem to be experiencing now.

13. 

    May 14, 2009 at 3:27 PM

    3niner

    I believe that CL’s “coiled spring” analogy gets to the point. Eventually, something will give, and it’s likely to be much worse than what we saw from the late 60s through the early 80s. Those of us who remember those years don’t ever want to see anything like that again, much less something worse.

14. 

    May 14, 2009 at 6:26 PM

    Worried Guy

    There are nearly $600 Trillion in derivatives blowing a hole right now through the printing presses…The is the deflationary worm hole the world find itself in…Welcome To Deflation Nation.

15. 

    May 15, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    Worried Guy

    Sorry, but the following below is incorrect..in my opinion…the Gvt. has been attempting to inflate ever since the creation of the Federal Reserve system in 1913. More recently, the real inflate attempt commenced in earnest on January 3, 2001, when the Federal Reserve began their maniacal ZIRP policy. Thereto, they have been the primary instigator of the housing bubble amongst a cast of unsavory characters that are all going to land in the same deflationary abyss.

    “The gov’t did not start attempting to “inflate its way out of this mess” until the 4th week of September, with TARP. (There was the earlier April 08 ’stimulus’ of a couple of hundred bucks pps, but this was so insignificant as to have no effect overall, and certainly not on housing/lending.) Then, it took weeks/months to figure out TARP, which BTW has not been fully spent yet. Then, the Obama stimulus happened, then PPIP, TALF, Treasury auctions, Fed note purchases, etc. – none of which are fully in the system yet.”

16. 

    May 15, 2009 at 12:58 PM

    CommercialLender

    WG,
    You seem confident on deflation, which is the current situation. OK, but for how long? Are you arguing for years and years or decades of deflation? I am quite interested to hear your argument past the next few months. My argument all along is that we will whipsaw into massive inflation in the not distant future, but you argue deflation, period.

    do you see inflation in the future or deflation in perpetuity?

    You are arguing that despite the most radical increase in govt debt, currency printing, and stimulus packages in the history of the country, and this at a time when there are other world economic major powers emerging on the scene,

17. 

    May 15, 2009 at 4:43 PM

    Worried Guy

    Do you know the history of Japan and the amount of stimuli they forced into the system starting around 1992? They have a total national debt now of 200x their GDP…The U.S. is not even close, yet. How many years did Japan remain in deflation?…I count at least 15..The U.S. is definitely turning Japanese…And the argument that the U.S. doesn’t have savers like Japan is moot when U.S. consumers are now shutting down in favor of savings as the parabolic debt curve from 1971 is finally heading south…Welcome My Friend..To Deflation Nation.

18. 

    May 16, 2009 at 8:30 AM

    Worried Guy

    Turning Japanese

    The good news is that housing prices will eventually bottom. This will likely occur in 2010. Then what? The cheerleaders on CNBC expect 5% to 10% gains to resume as if nothing had happened. The example of Japan is more likely to be our future. Every circumstance leading up to the Japanese housing crash has been present in the U.S. during the last decade:

    * Historically low interest rates
    * Housing touted as a ‘can’t miss investment’
    * Median home prices doubled
    * Median home prices in largest markets tripled
    * Lenders offered risky loans
    * Government acted as a partner to industry
    * Home price increases far outpaced wages and rents

    After reaching peak values, Japanese home prices declined by an average of 40%. In the country’s largest cities, the declines were worse, averaging 65%. Homes in Tokyo lost 80% of their value and are still on the downward slide to this day. National home prices in Japan were $125,000 in 1985. Twenty years later home prices are again at or near the $125,000 level. If the U.S. follows this path, median home prices will be $143,600 in 2020, the same level as 2000. You won’t hear any “experts” making this prediction, because the economic implications would be too dire.

19. 

    May 16, 2009 at 8:32 AM

    Worried Guy

    The time for fraud, lies and deceit are over. Anyone within the banking industrial complex, from CEOs to loan officers that committed fraud must go to jail. If individuals lied on their mortgage documents, they should be prosecuted for fraud. If Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke told Ken Lewis to lie, they should be prosecuted. If you borrowed too much and can’t make the payment on the house you are occupying, move out. You lose. Let prices fall to bargain levels and the winners in society who didn’t take on 150% leverage will buy the houses. A twenty year period of economic stagnation may be the best thing that could happen to this country. Saving would again become a virtue. Materialism would be ridiculed. Homes would be a place to live, rather than an investment. Truly important things like family, friends, community, trust and faith might take precedence once again. Or we could go on flipping houses and keeping up with the Joneses. What would Jesus of Suburbia Do?