Much positive news from September’s Market Condition Report presented by First Centennial Title. Prices up, inventory steady, escrows up, failures down. Click on the report to enlarge.
…from the report:
OVERVIEW: Activity slows as market transitions into the fall-winter cycle. Prices appear to have bottomed in the short term at or near current levels.
SUPPLY (ON MARKET): Continues to hold very steady in the current range with little meaningful deviation (for the 8th month).
DEMAND (SOLD PER MONTH): Demand declined for both SFR and Condo. FAILURES (EXPIRE-WITHDRAW): The rate of failure for SFR was over estimated in September. The current result corrects that figure.
IN ESCROW (FUTURE CLOSINGS): Up slightly from September.
PERCENT SELLING: Due to the adjustment in failures, Percent Selling increased from 54% to the current 63% for SFR, and 54% to 48% for Condo. Expect the measure to remain at this level or gradually decline.
MONTHS SUPPLY: This key measure is on the increase implying and reinforcing the idea that the market has peaked in terms of closed transactions at or near the current level.
MARKET SPEED: Market Speed has slowed for both types. The pace of the Reno market (which was increasing) is now slowing. The best performing Reno submarket remains Fernley, returning a Market Speed of 38 (down from 50 last month). The slowest is Yerington at a very sluggish 7.
PRICES: Both SFR and Condo returned median price increases. Expect an up and down trend from month to month. Large changes in price should not be expected, while relatively small diminishing negative shifts are more likely. This trend is generally in line with other markets surveyed.
Guy Johnson
FutureRenoHomebuyer,
You comment regarding the high number of price reductions caught my attention. I checked the MLS for all price reductions since 10/14 within area #100 (all Reno/Sparks) and found 68 price reductions. What you’re observing may be a glitch with the Trulia system.
bob c
The decrease in construction cost is from
one significant source: the contractors bid NO profit; they are happy to meet payroll, retain their key personel and remain in business. I
won’t work for free so I’m finishing all my
outstanding contracts…disposing of assets and
retiring to reno. Maybe I’ll start back up in
a few years, maybe I won’t. (general engineering
contractor 30 years)
Lets talk homes……it would be nice if people
posted their percieved best buys of the day
(and for the bears—they could pick the
least worst buy) and us home-lookers could have
some fun checking them out. One more request;
how successful are homeowners in getting property
taxes rolled back if built during the bubble?
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Guy,
Thanks very much for that fact check. Still, 68 price reductions in Reno/Sparks since 14 Oct is a very high number in my experience. I would be interested in your take, as you are an RE professional.
If it is a real bump, I wonder if these are the homebuyers that have resigned themselves to the fact that they will not sell in time for the tax credit, and so have just lowered the price accordingly.
Bob C, great ideas for new topics. Enthusiastically second that motion.
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Meant “homesellers” not “homebuyers” in previous post.
Downtownjunkie
There is something wrong when a stucco box in Damonte is DOUBLE the tax rate of a home in Old Southwest.
RRB Fan
Downtownjunkie — I don’t disagree with you, and unfortunately given the way assessments work any new construction pays a severe penalty. Since the assessor depreciates the value of the improvements annually (by 1.5% I believe) based on “rebuild cost” until that reaches the a minimum of 50% that makes new home taxes a lot more than anything that is > 30 years old. They treat land value separately.
I talked with the folks at the assessors office to understand what happens for new construction and was told that the total assessment would not exceed the purchase price assuming the property started as raw land. If the property were your primary residence this would lock in your base tax amount and cap it at a 3% increase per year.
I looked at a development in Sparks where the builder was charging between $125-$135/sq ft for a new 2,000 sq ft house lot included. Based on the replacement cost calculations (from the assessor) the land would have to be close to free. They obviously wouldn’t treat it as such and would have to adjust their replacement cost $/sq ft downward. For new construction I think this is reasonable, but obviously not compared to foreclosures with a significantly lower $/sq ft.
Given all t
Mike McGonagle
I’d be happy to put up a post on later today with the new listings that are piquing your interst. Just email me the addresses you are interested in (570 Reno will make my list). I think clicking on my name on this comment will bring up my email, or click my contact info on the bottom of the page.
CommercialLender
Re: replacement costs / building costs, FWIW, I’m no expert though I do commercial construction lending from time to time, so I see bids. My thoughts/presumptions until reading Sully’s comments were that costs were way down over the past 18 months from all areas, from labor to copper to steel to profit to land, with the notable exceptions of equity and debt costs. I.e., there was a general deflation with many subs and hard costs, though equity requirements are way up. Sully, maybe you could expand more to give ranges or psf costs that you see today? Labor is still as high as you as a contractor paid 18 months ago? Wood? Copper? Steel?
As it relates to ‘replacment costs’ in the commercial space, Sully commented about foreclosures havign the greatest affect on values. I can attest to many an office building selling in the upper double digits where clearly replacement costs for fully TI’d office is well north of $150/psf, often higher. I’ve seen recent office assets transact at half and even less than a 1/3 of $150/psf. Clearly, the distress in the lending and equity markets are causing comps to shoot/kill the idea of any new construction projects and frankly create wonderful opportunities to those buying at these low prices. Forget trying to rebuild or newly build anything close to those costs.
On a side note, if you buy and office asset for $40psf, you still need to insure it for full replacement costs. Same for SFRs, so lowball buyers need to ensure they have adequate fire insurance coverage.
Sully
This article is showing a big increase in building costs:
http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/news/2008/09/us-construction-costs-jump-dramatically-in-second-quarter/
My point was not to say costs were up or down, but to say that builders are having a very difficult time competing with foreclosures, as they cannot get their costs low enough. Regardless of the mortgage problems, they still have to contend with the 78 – 99/per ft foreclosures. So, if it costs an average of 125 – 135/ft to build in Reno, then the builders are hurting big time, as they can only lower their prices to a certain point – after that its work for free. And that doesn’t last very long.
Sully
CL, I wasn’t very clear in my answer. I meant the fixed cost of labor and material, before overhead and profit. In hindsight, I see the confusion. I was thinking that the foreclosures are selling for around fixed cost right now and builders have to still add overhead and profit. This is the figure I was referring to that wouldn’t change, not the final number with profit, etc added.
BanteringBear
I think I misunderstood what you’re saying a bit too, Sully. I’m sure you’d agree that, during the boom, profit margins skyrocketed. Now, those have been greatly reduced as bids are lower. That, in conjunction with cheaper materials (which I’m sure you’d agree with) have led to a decrease in the cost of new construction to the consumer. I don’t know about Reno, but in WA, the lumber yards, etc. are giving deals on lumber packages for new homes, etc. Also many deals to be had on finish materials. That makes it cheaper for builders to build.
BanteringBear
Sully-
That article is from 2008. Materials prices have decreased, in many instances, drastically since then. My point is that, in a period of deflation, construction costs WILL fall. We are in a deflationary period right now. Speculation in commodities can, in the short term, lead to overinflated costs, but real supply and demand will have its way long term. The whole stockpiling of commodities is a short term phenomenon. China WILL stop building and hoarding, and the tremendous slowdown in building in this country, as well as globally, will drive materials prices through the floor. There is absolutely no way around it.
bob c
but you are wrong bantering bear
the collapse in commodities has almost
done a round trip and we’re getting close
to even on the CRB index year over year
the 140 barrel oil left a distorted imprint
on peoples minds—yea we have deflated from
there, but that was a BRIEF spike
most of my cost savings are my suppliers eliminating their profit…..just trying to stay
afloat…..cutting each others throats
i can’t see why there is 1 new home anywhere under
construction….why add supply and lose money
in the process
we are in a recession…it is a weeding out process…the strong survive
bantering bear, you are steadfast that this is
a depression (and you have a chance to be correct)
but why argue with everyone when a simple “we
are headed into a deflationary depression” would eliminate the need for you to elaborate any further and bicker how its going to occur
i’m going to continue to live my life…get a nice
casa in reno and believe that this is not armageddon—–so i look for tips on getting
the best current market price and understanding
reno’s neighborhoods , tax structures etc so
i’ll be educated and ready to buy when i fulfill
my commitments here in san jose and can actually
leave
its fun to look at the daily new listings…..
looking for the that one special casa
have a nice evening and day tomorrow
BanteringBear
Wrong, huh Bob C? You old builders are as stubborn as oxen, and about half as bright. 🙂 I could plaster this blog with dozens of articles about falling materials prices and lower costs of construction. How is it that those who are allegedly on the front lines are unable to see this? Is it because you’re not building a damn thing right now? Make some phone calls and see for yourself. Or, read the tea leaves.
“Construction costs tumble in NYC”
“For the construction of office and bank buildings, costs for everything from materials to labor dropped 10% from last year, according to a Building Congress analysis of FW Dodge data.”
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090916/FREE/909169985
“Falling materials prices, increased competition have led to lower overall construction costs”
http://louisville.bizjournals.com/louisville/stories/2009/08/24/focus1.html
“Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) for Construction Materials and Components – August”
“…the overall trend for construction costs remains negative. As compared to August 2008, the cost of construction is down 7.4 percent.”
http://newsletters.agc.org/datadigest/2009/09/15/producer-price-indexes-ppis-for-construction-materials-and-components-august/
“N.J. public projects getting cheaper in troubled economy, raising concerns among contractors”
“New Jersey’s public construction projects, usually an exercise in cost overruns, are getting cheaper as material prices fall and builders compete for contracts just to stay afloat…”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/09/nj_public_projects_getting_che.html
“Construction Costs fall worldwide”
http://www.costweb.com.au/news/?story=161
“Construction costs fall steeply”
Qatar- DOHA: “Construction costs have come down almost 25 to 40 percent since early last year when the industry was booming.”
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20091008080015/Construction%20Costs%20Fall%20Steeply%20In%20Qatar
Wake up, guys.
BanteringBear
Well, the spam filter just ate my long post with numerous articles about falling construction costs. Perhaps Guy can retrieve it.
Retiring to Reno
I believe you all are saying the same thing. Also 30 years in construction -A license like bob c- every project is being done for less than in 2006, partially because materials are slightly down, labor has become an owners market, companies are tremendously more efficient in doing more with less, and profits are non existent due to companies just trying to ride out the recession and be around in 2011.
But Sully’s right, the cost of building a house can’t compete with foreclosed houses selling for less than replacement cost. Therefore no new building will resume until this pattern reverses itself. When new houses are being built, it stands to reason houses purchased below replacement costs will close the gap in value in relation to new building costs, which is why I believe so many investors continue to buy.
Not because we’re necessarily at a bottom but we are below what it cost to build, which one day will have to appreciate to that sticks and mortar number. Or close to anyway. Buying for $78/ft and building resuming at $134/ft in 2-5 years would allow for a nice profit realized.
Guy Johnson
BB,
Retrieved. I guess the auto spam filter didn’t like so many links. Sorry about that.
– guy
Retiring to Reno
Incidentally, for all the reasons I wrote above, we are now doing projects 25-30% less than in 2006. No – that’s not a misprint.
Walter
Banks selling their REO properties for 50% less than the previous owners paid in 2006 or 2007 is making it difficult for new house builders to compete?
Really? This is news? This is dificult to comprehend?
Foreclosures are making it difficult to sell existing houses for what they sold for in 2006 and 2007? Really?
I believe that it is the accepted thinking that a lot of foreclosures generally are not good for the market.
12,000 REOs in a town like Reno starts to become a rich bitch at some point.
Wonder what will happen when the tens of thousands of MIA NODs start to show up.
E.Edward
This is truly sad…All the shills out there wanting to keep this artificial market overinflated have pretty much sealed the fate of any new speculative construction in reno/sparks for years and years to come…
Will most likely see an abundance of recently purchased homes in foreclosure and beyond…
GET READY FOR MORE PRICE REDUCTIONS….
Reno Ignoramus
Every time I sit down and try to analyze where we are in the market meltdown, and where we are going, I return to the huge issue raised by Walter. Where are we in the foreclosure lifespan? If all the foreclosures that are going to happen are conceived of as a lifespan, where are we? Teenage years? 20s? 30s? 40s? 50s? 60s? Moving into old age?
We are in unprecedented times. Nobody has ever seen this many tens of thousands of NODs filed for this many years running. Nobody has ever seen literally thousands and thousands of NODs fall off the screen. Are they going to surface as future TDs? Are they going to disappear forever? I do not believe that the housing market can stabilize until the foreclosures stop. I cannot see how anybody can predict where the market goes from here without answering these questions. And we have no map.
Retiring says maybe new building will resume in 2-5 years. Maybe. But if even half of the missing NODs turn into TDs, maybe not.
bob c
we all agree it that its cheaper to buy than build, so there will be little or no new building
until that situation changes—over time that
will help resolve the problem
the macro economic picture trumps everything
right now, thats why its the constant source of
discussion—regional issues take a back seat or
no seat—i’m astounded by the stock market and
commodity rebound—i just can’t make a macro
call…….my guess is a slow erosion of wealth,
low interest rates and moderate inflation (no
real rate of return on savings)
if someone were that sure of their beliefs of
deflation, there are so many easy ways to short
commodities (or other asset classes) and make a financial killing
but, BB , obama should have broke the auto union
when he had the chance and the disparity between
union and non-union is so great and that just
perpetuates the status quo and the ultimate
collsion
i’m getting out of construction because i cannot
afford operating engineers (45 base 27 bennies with 3/hr raise this year and laborers 28 base 17
bennies with small raise this year)
$3000 / week for each operating engineer in this
economy???????????? and the babies don’t even
work hard and want overtime insane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i’m looking for a 350-500k home….with low maintenance and some energy efficiency—the smallest nice home in reno—-i won’t heat 3000sf
for 2 people …..its just stupid, but i want a
yard
i don’t know hvac…..but is there a way to make
a galena forest cabin home more energy efficient
by heating the home in ‘zones’? when guests
over heat the whole place…..when not just heat
what you need?
geez that should have been 4 separate posts
Reno Ignoramus
Hey Bear,
I know that this may not have much meaning to many of the newer posters here, but it appears that the ‘million dollar house’ at 4271 Dant STILL has not sold, and is now listed at $625K.
I think this started out at $1.1 million, no?
Norton
bob c,
I don’t want to hijacjk this thread, but you keep talking about the stock market and how it is astounding you. Why should it astound you? All the billions of dollars the Fed and the gov’t are mainlining into the system have to go somewhere. It’s clear to see that they are going into the stock market and commodities. All this upswing is being generated entirely by big institutional traders, the same usual suspects as always, trading with all the easy money. The stock market is very expensive now, as many observers have noted. Not really a mystery.
BanteringBear
“…it appears that the ‘million dollar house’ at 4271 Dant STILL has not sold, and is now listed at $625K.”
Oh, my. That poor sap Allen “I’m a good fisherman” Murray STILL hasn’t sold that boat anchor. I’d forgotten all about it. He didn’t listen to us two years ago when we suggested he was delusional in asking $1.1 million, and that he could drop the price and cut bait. We warned him that he’d ride the market into the ground and he screamed in opposition, but he did just that. He is so far behind the curve now, that he should just send the keys in. There are far superior properties selling for much less. The neighbors might want to pay attention to the chimney- I’ve a feeling the furniture might be used to heat the house this winter.
reno newbie
but, BB , obama should have broke the auto union
when he had the chance and the disparity between
union and non-union is so great and that just
perpetuates the status quo and the ultimate
collsion
the auto union elected obama
Worried Guy
Norton,
In regards to the equity markets and commodities issue. If you have noticed, the equity markets are being run up on increasingly lower volume over time. Institutional traders like GS-JPM with public monies are driving short covering rallies. But here’s the catch, a lot of retail traders are in cash this time around. You also have record insider selling in the last year. This is a precarious situation that can lead to vacuum declines a la 1929 and 1987. The question comes down to whom will they sell to once again. Remember 2008? The short covering rally of Oil all the way up to $147 per barrel? What happened thereafter? We are witnessing a redoubt echo investment bubble with public monies. It is a travesty that insolvent institutions such as JPM-GS 1. Are in existence anymore and 2. Using ‘Joe The Plumber’ public monies to perpetuate their own existence. I am certain J.P. Morgan in 1907 would of never approved of the Federal Reserve System if he saw what is taking place right here, right now. GS and most likely JPM should of disappeared when AIG and others went bustola and that is a fact.
Downtownjunkie
I am looking in Old Southwest now for a house. Seems to me a good deal at this point is around 130-145/SF. I am working with one of the top REO realtors in town and she seems to think the tax credit will NOT be renewed and that it has put artificial demand for homes into a frenzy. Expect prices to fall off after November 1, 2009.
I have mixed thoughts on the whole tax credit thing. In one case it is absorbing the incredible inventory we have out there with much STRONGER buyers than ever before. In another case it is maybe delaying a real recovery.
Thoughts?
Back2Basics
Interesting housing forecast for Reno:
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091016/NEWS/91016056
BTW, has anyone heard of Veros?
Maybe I’m glad I’m still renting.
Retiring to Reno
bob c – I don’t believe its practical to retrofit an existing house to be zone energy efficient like you’d want.At least not most homes. Hopefully one of the things we should see with this gap in new homebuilding – for however long that gap lasts – is that when housing starts begin again they will be better thought out, both from an energy efficient standpoint like HVAC zones but also from a aging population standpoint. Think of new houses built like a Prius.
As having been discussed here many times, fewer people want the 3500 SF + home anymore, now that this downturn as taught us less can be better.But what we do want is lower operating costs,including tax considerations,sectional housing so one part may be closed up when there’s only two of you home,solar, green water infiltration and easy maintenance.
I predict that new homebuilders will rethink entirely how they build in the future, and the smart ones will begin to cater to the largest demographic – baby boomers. That should help sales at that time by offering something for sale you can’t buy used.
Move to Reno
Why should the $8000 first time home buyer tax credit be extended? It has already added $14 billion to the deficit.
I mean, it has to end sometime, right?
I’m sure realtors would love a $15k tax credit for all home buyers, and jumbo mortgages backed by Uncle Sam up to $900k.
Like you, am looking to buy and am eagerly waiting the demise of the tax credit. Prices in the $300k level and higher will drop.
SkrapGuy
Downtown, I think that realtor got the NAR memo. The memo that says go out and tell all the on the fence buyers that the credit is going to expire on November 30. Create a sense of urgency so the 6 percenters will benefit. Perfect timing really, all the buyers have to be in escrow about now in order to be sure and close by November 30.
Few things are sure these days, except taxes and tax credits being maneuvered through congress by the lobbyists for the NAR and their related brethren the mortgage brokers.
Look for the tax credit extension coming in the next 30 days.
Worried Guy
Ya think maybe these agents are saying the tax credit will not be extended to get their clients to BUY NOW! before Nov. 1st? I like the way they are playing the doubting game up to November 30th with the extension so today’s buyers will not wait as prices continue to go lower. It’s all a game.
Martin
In just Q4 of 08 and Q1 of 09, the NAR spent $12.25 million on lobbying in Washington DC. That works out to be about $23,000 for every member of Congress. The NAR’s expenditures for lobbying in Q2 and Q3 are expected to be at least as much. In other words, the NAR is spending about $25 million a year in lobbying our elected representatives in DC.
Who is lobbying against the extension of the tax credit, and what have they spent?
And people think the tax credit is not going to be extended? Aww come on, people.
SkrapGuy
“Prices in the $300K level and higher will drop”.
You are absolutely right, Move.
And that’s why the tax credit is sure to be extended.
The forces at work to prop up housing values are immense, they are rich and well-financed, and they span many constituencies. As the many wise commenters here have said over and over, in the end all these efforts will ultimately fail. But they will have the unfortunate effect of delaying the inevitable for many many years.
willk
If we buy a house in Reno for a second home until we retire and use it on 2-3 weekends a month what would we need to do for the house so as not to have our plumbing freeze up? Is just leaving the hot water heater on low and recirculating pump on enough? That article a few posts back says “Reno market is the weakest in the country”. I look at the MLS listings for Somersett daily and I just don’t see this. There is virtually no single family homes under 200,000 without offers pending. Many of the short sales above 400,000 even have offers. I saw one short sale that had been on the market for several months over the summer for 339000 get a offer then come back on the market a few weeks ago only to be scooped up again almost immeadately.
BanteringBear
“Prices in the $300K level and higher will drop”.
And, so will all other properties below that level. Some people seem to think that “the lower end has bottomed”. This couldn’t be further from the truth. When a $500k house turns into a $300k house, that $250k house turns into $150k house, and the $150k house joins the under $100k group. All houses’ prices continue to fall.
DownButNotOut
BB-When a $500k house turns into a $300k house, that $250k house turns into $150k house, and the $150k house joins the under $100k group. All houses’ prices continue to fall.
Sorry not true. With that analogy the 100K house can now be had for free.A bottom could still be in place, but as upper house come down, the difference between those and the bottom just become closer.
Your losing your luster, dude. Nappy time again?
Reno Ignoramus
willk, perhaps a little perspective about Somersett will help you understand the comment. All those houses you now see for sale in Somersett for under $200K? Those houses all originally sold in the $350K-$400K range. Many of them are now 50% down from initial sales prices.
You say that ‘many’ of the short sales over $400K have offers. Well, who knows if they will sell or not. The uncertainty of short sales ever going on to close has been well documented on this blog. Just look at the house of Diane Cohn in Somersett. That house has been showing “pending short sale” for about 5-6 months now. But the larger point, willk, is that they are short sales. As in, the sellers have taken a bath and are trying to convince the bank to accept less than is owed, sometimes hundreds of thousands less.
Somersett has been pretty much a train wreck, and will continue to be so for a long time. The whole place was built on the bubble, and I suspect that that huge majority of people who ‘own’ their house there are upside down. They are not trying to sell, just continuing to pay the alligator on a house that will NEVER again be worth what they paid for it.
As for winter maintenance of a house in Reno, you will have to keep the furnace on.
PursuitAce
BB you are now an expert on Chinese economics? Well let me know when they stop hoarding copper and gold so I can short Freeport-McMoRan…
BanteringBear
Downer-
The dollar amounts were not meant to be taken literally, but rather as a figurative example. I thought that was obvious, but I forgot little eyes were reading. Say, isn’t it past your bedtime?
PA posted:
“BB you are now an expert on Chinese economics?”
I suppose, if common sense makes me an expert.
DownButNotOut
Huh, good comeback -‘the dollar amounts weren’t meant to be taken literally’ Earlier you wrote; ‘My posts have nothing to do with being a sourpuss, but rather straightforward honesty, something this country could use a lot more of these days.’
But don’t take you literally right?
Is this reallyy BB? Or is this Future Reno Buyer 2 hijacking the BB moniker? As I recall the original BB made a lot more sense.
BanteringBear
You’re splitting hairs, Downer. You have absolutely no coherent argument to refute my assertion, so you resort to the same trivial nonsense you’ve been littering the blog with ever since you showed up. Time to go into ignore Downer mode again…
willk
Reno Ignoramus
Thanks, but I guess what I mean is that in the 5 months I’ve been following the Somersett MLS listings I don’t see any further declines that are obvious. For example a 1440 sf home in Del Webb is short selling for an average of lets say 170000 which is what they were selling for in June. What’s more they seem to have offers on them quicker. I realize that may be 50% less than what it was originally purchased at but hopefully it won’t get worse. Unfortunately,despite what Biden says about the stimulus working, I’m afraid it’s not creating jobs in private industry (I never could figure how things like 15 million dollars to the city of Detroit to help the homeless would creat jobs). If unemployment continues to rise then I’m afraid all bets are off. If unemployment does somehow turn around and couple that with the fact that no one has been building homes the past few years could we see a V shaped recovery for housing (caused by a temporary shortage)?
Reno Ignoramus
I think a major problem with the ‘temporary shortage’ scenario is the about 6,000 NODs that are unaccounted for in Reno-Sparks. As I said in an earlier post on this thread, that is the major wildcard. Can we pretend that these 6,000 houses in some stage of foreclosure just don’t exist?
bob c
no positive forecasts allowed here
Raymond
And it is not “just” 6,000 houses in some state of foreclosure. That number gets bigger every month. The recording of NODs continues unabated. We are looking at another 800-900 this month. Probably another 300-350 TDs.
There will be no recovery of any kind, let alone a V shaped recovery, in housing prices until the loan defaults and the continuing tsunami in foreclosures stops.
BanteringBear
“willk” brings up jobs, and for good reason. There is absolutely zero chance for a housing “recovery” until the economy turns. Housing prices don’t lead an economic recovery, they follow it. Until Reno sees meaningful job creation, home prices can be expected to stagnate in the very best case scenario.
As far as the Somersett properties you refer to, willk, are you basing your observations on pending sales which don’t disclose an agreed upon price, or closed sales? They are two entirely different things. I’d be interested to see the properties which have actually closed escrow. Perhaps Guy has that info. That is the only way to get an accurate read on the market. Merely searching the mls is nothing but a brief jaunt into the distorted minds of the greedy and desperate.
As far as the slow down in building helping to ease the oversupply- there are close to 20 million empty homes in this country right now. That’s going to satisfy demand for some time. The bubble stole future demand for years to come.
Raymond
Not sure if you are being sarcastic, bob c.
But let me say: I have been following this blog for about three years now, and the consensus has not been wrong yet. In fact, it has become absolutely amusing how ahead of the curve this blog has been with respect to the local market.
I am convinced that the RGJ reporters follow this blog, as well as the “experts” at UNR. They used to just hand out the realtor swill. They have been far more accurate since they started sounding like the people who post here.
bob c
reno real estate is not a good investment, but
i’m going to buy a home anyway