Notices of default and notices of sale took big drops in October. Granted, the monthly fluctuations have been somewhat erratic of late, but October numbers are at levels not since January of this year.
Meanwhile, October recordings of Trustee’s Deeds trended up.
Check out all the numbers by clicking on the chart below…
Or, if you prefer the bar graph version of the data click on this chart…
Ticor’s resale, new home, and refinance statistics for October can be found below. All categories trended downward for the month.
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Guy Johnson
This is the commentary that accompanied the NOS and NOD charts: “There is a decrease in both Notice of Default and Notices of Sale filings. The decrease in Notice of Sale filings may be because of the new Nevada Foreclosure Mediation Program http://www.nevadajudiciary.us/index.php/foreclosuremediation and also other government programs available to people facing foreclosure http://www.foreclosurehelp.nv.gov/. These programs could be slowing the foreclosure process down.”
E.Edward
Yada Yada Yada..
Median Home prices desperately need to return to the tried-n-true formula {3 x yearly median income}…Until this happens there will be no stability period..
Are wages going to magically jump 25-40%?, Seems to me there dropping? How long can phony interest rates and gimmicks attempt to keep this mess afloat?
What would be really helpful “contribution” to the consumer is to know exactly how much inventory the banks are holding and how much inventory is in the pipeline… just my opinion
billddrummer
To E.Edward,
I submit that not even the banks know how much inventory they hold, nor how much is in the pipeline, nor what their losses will ultimately be.
jackson P
phony interest rates?
how so?
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Trying to reconcile this data with the data from other media sources indicating that defaults are actually accelerating, with Reno being in the top 10 in the nation for defaults on mortgages.
Data from the Mortgage Banker’s Association notes, “One in four mortgages in Florida were either past due or in foreclosure, the most in the U.S., Nevada was close behind at 23 percent.” Yes, that said 23 PERCENT!
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2009/10/28/20091028biz-foreclosures1028.html
RealtyTrac reports foreclosures are shifting from subprime to prime, due to increasing unemployment and falling prices. Further, “New hot spots developed in Chico, California, where the foreclosure rate almost doubled, and Reno, Nevada, where the rate rose 80 percent from a year earlier.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/19/foreclosures-prime-borrow_n_363725.html
Leaving the question of the general trend in foreclosures aside,
Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that defaults have begun to trend down (if 2 months can be called a trend), there is still over 4,500 homes (yes, 4,500 HOMES) in Reno in some stage of foreclosure. It will take years for this inventory to work its way through the system, even if we didn’t have another default for the next year.
Amid this I see houses littered throughout Montreux and Arrowcreek listed well in excess of $1M and >$500/sq. ft. Just goes to show you how surprisingly long a large number of people can remain delusional. Without trying to sound like the master of the obvious, where will the buyers of those properties come from?
I had intended to buy a nice $400k house that was deeply discounted from bubble prices. Now I just may rent for a few years so I can pick up that Montreux charmer for less than the price of the Silverdome…
skeptical
Interest rates are low because the Fed is buying MBS. When they stop, interest rates will rise.
bob c
90 day fed paper went negative yesterday for awhile…..what a disconnect between commodity/stock prices and the bond market
one of the two markets is dead wrong
jackson P.
Manipulated interest rates? quite possibly! phone? not exactly!
they are indeed quite real!
Martin
A bit of a diversion:
It appears that Diane’s house fell out of escrow again (3rd or 4th time?)
Now it is back as a short sale for $572K. This is more than the $525K it used to be (and as it shows on the slideshow to the right).
I believe this is at least the second or third time the price has gone from $572 to $525 back to $572 back to $525 back to $572. I am not trying to pry, but I would like to know the strategy of all this. I suspect there is a lesson here in trying to effect a short sale.
RRB Fan
Martin … let me share my own short sale experience on one of the homes in Somersett. I put in a admittedly low offer on a short share a few months ago when the previous short sale buyers walked (evidently they found something else). Anyway, the house was listed for $211K and the bank came back wanting $247K — at this price I walked. The bank did their value calculation solely based on $ per sq ft from the looks of it. It would not accept any comps outside of MLS (including builder sales). This made for a premium of 15-20% more than what recent homes closed for. The house got relisted MLS for $247K.
Worried Guy
Tell ya this….If the ‘paint the tape’ on equities and commodities gets wiped out…We are talking the last piece of the illusion biting the dust. In other words, ‘Nail In The Coffin’. Prices will begin to spiral rapidly in all areas.
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Price increases on a short sale. This is how it goes. Prospective buyer makes an offer. Bank does it’s diligence and decides market value is higher (often incorrectly).
Example: House is short sale listed. Buyer makes offer of $500k. Bank’s appraisal comes in at $600k. Bank refuses short sale offer.
Smart agent decides to relist property at higher price ($600k) knowing the bank will not likely accept less. Agent does not want to waste time by listing at a lower price that the bank won’t accept.
Epilogue: 12 months later the bank accepts 25% less after the property has been through the entire foreclosure process to get it off the books. Moral of the story? Banks are not in the property business and keep making stupid decisions. Market will be healthy and on upswing when banks finally accept offers the market will bear.
Lower prices are not the problem, they are the solution.
Bank says price is now $600k.
RRB Fan
Yep … lower prices are the solution. From what I can tell the results of a bank short sale are pretty much a crap shoot. Some folks have gotten really good deals … others nothing. And in some cases it has taken six plus months to hear back!
Raymond
I wonder if Diane’s house is one of those shadow-shadow inventory houses we have talked about. It has been at least 7 months since Diane announced she was leaving town and putting her house on the market as a short sale. I assume she has not been paying the mortgage (why would that make sense?) and yet still no NOD.
But hey, I have an acquaintence at work who stopped paying her mortgage in August of LAST year, and the NOD just got recorded 2 weeks ago….
BanteringBear
Short sales are stupid. It makes more sense just to walk away. I’d venture to guess that most people end up doing just that after tiring of the banks games. The sooner that decision is made, the sooner one’s credit will be repaired.
bob c
90 day treasury note yield today 0.01% that is fear
Worried Guy
“Three-month bill rates turned negative on Nov. 19 for the first time since last year’s credit freeze as the 64 percent rally in the S&P 500 from a 12-year low in March pushed valuations to about 22 times its companies’ reported earnings, the highest level since 2002.”—Bloomberg
smarten
I’ll share a “twist” on the short sale discussion.
I know someone well underwater who was approached by an agent to short sell his home. The rational was that if successful, the seller’s credit would be less adversely affected. The seller agreed, however, for a very different reason.
There are three mortgages against the subject property and third is held by a family member. A contract has been entered into and now the agent is attempting to get the three lien holders to release their liens. Notwithstanding there’s no equity, the holder of the third refuses unless there’s some cash pay out – no pay out, no sale.
So I disagree with BB’s observation that in all instances short sales are stupid. Here the vehicle of a short sale may actually produce a result which could never, never be accomplished via a traditional sale.
Now I’m not saying that the true beneficiary of the third mortgage in the example I have given is the short seller him/herself, but what if he/she were? Another reason short sales aren’t always stupid.
Carmel
” 64% rally in the S&P 500….”
Reminds me of the 69% gain the NASDAQ had in 1999. We all know what happened next.
bob c
22 times operating earnings (excluding one time, but cronically continual charges) gaap earnings are > 50 times earnings
bob c
my bad…gaap earnings around 40x
bob c
ok….i’m going on record with a call….we are going to have a severe double dip
people just have to learn that no-one gets the ROI that americans enjoyed thru the 80’s and 90’s
people have to feel more pain to learn this and i’m calling the last few months a total head fake,
which could have been avoid if we started to take the real medicine
the mind set that people deserve 3-5% returns over the rate of inflation is pure spin and this will not end pretty
jackson p.
And all of this money the government is pumping into the economy will have NO positive affect right bob c?
BanteringBear
“ok….i’m going on record with a call….we are going to have a severe double dip”
Wow- really going out on a limb there, huh bob c? It’s already baked in the cake, IMO. Only fools bought into this fake recovery. There has been nothing done to address the fundamental problems in the economy which are the off-shoring of jobs, the in-sourcing of cheap labor, both legal and illegal, with unchecked population growth, increasing unemployment, and stagnant to declining wages. Until the system rewards job creation for legal citizens, and punishes job destruction and cheaters, we’ll keep heading into the abyss. The housing bubble is but a symptom of a far worse problem.
Worried Guy
Step right up and get ya $8,000 folks while we work on keeping housing prices inflated above declining incomes! –P.T. Barnum Government.
bob c
a lot of pundits question this recovery, but the markets tend to baffle and confuse the majority; the majority of the time
so, i don’t argue with the numbers and i don’t have to be right, because i’m not a financial advisor and i don’t need to be on both sides of the fence with my analysis
the climb in oil & all commodities and asset prices is completely rejected by the bond market and emphasized by 0.00% 90 day ‘safe’ paper (negative real yields as prices have turned upwards)
i am sighting actual numbers that slap me in the face and not trying to argue with the markets…i’m letting them tell me
smarten
You hang in there Bob C –
This Board is notorious for ignoring data it chooses to ignore [that which contradicts its point of view]. You’re entitled to share your conclusions based upon your interpretation of the data you cite. At least you’ve offered some facts to support your conclusions.
inclinejj
ok….i’m going on record with a call….we are going to have a severe double dip”
I agree..It takes about 6 months for all the unemployment numbers to shift thru the economy. less spending, more defaults and foreclosures etc..
FutureRenoHomebuyer
Article today in NYT details how Wall Street is making money getting loan reductions for at-risk homeowners. They basically buy up loan securities significantly below par, repackage, get FHA backing, and sell the new, govt-backed securities to new investors.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/business/22loans.html?ref=business
A possible partial answer to the shadow inventory enigma?
If it benefits Wall Street, it must be true…