Not that all the upper end properties in Incline Village are all starting to look like the lower end properties at Woodland Village, but the NODs this last week or so are worth mentioning:
– 517 Fairview went NOD on a $4,800,000 loan on a missed March 2008 payment. This is Reynen of R&B, so it has been tied up in BK court for a while.
– 951 Divot when NOD on a $4,100,000 loan with an October 2009 missed payment.
– 831 Lakeshore went NOD on a $2,400,000 loan with a October 2009 missed payment.
– 592 Dyer went NOD on a $1,00,000 loan. Sorry, no photo on the Assessor’s site. Purchased for $940,000 April 2003. Missed October 2009 payment.
– 361 Country Club went NOD on a $965,000 loan with an October 2009 missed payment.
Except for Reynen, these are real time new defaults in the over a Mil strata in Incline. I’m interested in what conclusions you readers will draw.
BanteringBear
Smarten posted:
“I also gave my opinion of what would be bargain prices to pay for the NODs Mike posted in excess of $1M [are you telling me that a SFR like Fairview (which BTW is not located near Lakeshore) which was worth enough three years ago to support a $4.8M loan, should be selling for $500K because that represents the high end of the IV SFR market?].
You’re flat out wrong in your belief as to what represents the “high end” of the IV SFR market. If you think $2.5M is absurd, then what do you call the three NODs highlighted by Mike all in excess of this amount?”
It looks like you’re back to using strawman arguments, Smarten, and that you need to, again, brush up on your reading comprehension skills. I never called a $2.5 million house absurd. What I said was: “your idea that “higher end” in IV is $2.5M and higher is absurdly delusional.” BIG difference. Heck, there is a $100M house called “Tranquility” near Incline, so, using your logic, one can only conclude that $5M houses are low end.
With a median income of ~$65k, a $500k house IS high end, whether or not you like it or want to believe it. It is backed up by a fundamental fact- INCOMES in Incline Village. What do you back your number up with other than hot air?
You state:
“Not all regions of the country, nor [Washoe] county for that matter, exhibit residential real estate sales tied to median incomes. IV is one of them. If your combined household annual income is $65K or less, you’re pretty much not an IV SFR property owner. And neither are the purchasers of any median priced [$1.075M] IV SFR [unless you accumulated all cash to make your purchase].”
Are you aware that the median price in IV in the year 2000 was right around $330k? That means that HALF of all properties sold for less than that. What does that tell YOU about historical pricing? I’d also like to point out that the prices in Incline Village got out of hand in the 90’s and surged well before the major bubble gains were realized. There’s A LOT of froth out there.
You said:
“I’m reporting actual sales BB [and BTW, unit sales are up Y2Y so somebody is obviously (delusionally) paying]. You don’t like what the data suggests; that’s fine, you can have your opinion. But these are the facts, like them or not.”
What you’re doing is focusing on expensive properties, and losing sight of the big picture. You’re cherry picking data in order to portray an image of a bustling, healthy market, no doubt in a transparent attempt to somehow justify your own purchase. I think it’s great you bought a beautiful house which you can afford, and feel was a terrific deal. I don’t respect, however, the shilling you’ve resorted to subsequent to the purchase. Sad.
inclinejj
TD asked about the three homes on College Ave. the subject of a NOS. IJJ and I have talked about these homes and if they all go in a single trustee’s sale [there’s a single all inclusive d/t], they’ll probably revert to the lender. Again very high end, “Tahoe” style new construction across the street from Incline Creek Estates [the $1M+/- PUDs SE and I discussed several months ago]. Originally priced at $2.4M or so, IMO any of these three SFRs would represent excellent value as REOs priced in the $1.3M range or so
These 3 homes go to sale on Feb 16, 2010 with an opening bid of:
Total amount due: $5,434,223.53
Opening Bid: $3,882,560.33
smarten
BB, I’m cherry picking NOTHING. Nor am I trying to justify my purchase [I thought we weren’t going to bring me personally into our discussions of the market unless it’s your intent to “bait” me into some argument – a bait I’m not going to take].
Sales data are sales data. That’s all I’m reporting [but for my opinion of what might be good values for $4M+ homes in light of that data]. Sure I’m focusing on “cherry picked” expensive SFR properties [those above $1M]. But the reason I am, is because: 1) the data reveals there are MORE of them selling than those under $1M; and, 2) you can’t stand the fact that anyone would purchase any piece of real property for more than its price a decade ago. I have never portrayed the IV market as “bustling” nor “healthy.” It is what it is. The “big picture” is that people like you refuse to accept the data because you/they have a different agenda. So instead of pointing to where the data is wrong, you attack the messenger. The classic ultra liberal or progressive response. That’s what really is sad.
The simple fact of the matter is $500K doesn’t buy you much in an IV SFR [even though according to you that’s over 150% of the median sales price a decade ago]. There’s no industry here unless you’re IVGID’s manager or Mrs. Raley. Therefore if you work for wages and have made IV your primary residence, you can’t afford a median priced SFR. So if you’re a potential IV SFR buyer and you’re waiting for the median sales price to drop to the average household income of a Diamond Peak liftie; or 7-11 clerk; or bank teller; or Raley’s checker; I’m waiting to win the lotto!
I will continue to report IV SFR sales data and if you want to continue to deny it; have at it.
BanteringBear
Smarten posted:
“BB, I’m cherry picking NOTHING.”
“Sure I’m focusing on “cherry picked” expensive SFR properties [those above $1M].”
So, which is it Smarten? You also say:
“…2) you can’t stand the fact that anyone would purchase any piece of real property for more than its price a decade ago. I have never portrayed the IV market as “bustling” nor “healthy.” It is what it is. The “big picture” is that people like you refuse to accept the data because you/they have a different agenda. So instead of pointing to where the data is wrong, you attack the messenger. The classic ultra liberal or progressive response. That’s what really is sad.”
No, what’s really sad is when people like you construct strawman arguments rather than sticking to the facts. I defy you to show me where I EVER derided anybody for purchasing property. I haven’t. What rankles me is when people like you buy house aand then try to convince the blog world that the bottom is in.
I have zero agenda other than to refute shills, which you so unfortunately have become. I remain objective while you’re biased. I have not a care in the world where Incline Village prices go as I have no horse in the race, or interest in ever saddling up. Furthermore, I have never refuted your data, only pointed out that you are ignoring a large segment of the market, and drawing conclusions based upon small samples. Are you selling IV real estate now, Smarten?
village idiot
I think most will agree that IV is in a class of its own. It is a place that can sustain median sales prices at multiples higher than what is normally sustainable based upon median community household income.
Throw Aspen, prestige markets in Hawaii, among others, into a grouping of similar such places. Outside investors bid up the prices to own a little piece of paradise.
All these “investor” markets have been hurt since the bursting of the bubble. The $64k question is this: will the investor markets be more affected by the housing collapse, or will they be more stable against falling RE prices elsewhere.
The answer to that question provides the roadmap to the trend of the IV RE market going into the next several years. Will the wealthy unload their IV getaways? Or will they stand fast?
DonC
village idiot says “It is a place that can sustain median sales prices at multiples higher than what is normally sustainable based upon median community household income.”
You are obviously correct but one should be able to quantify the size of the multiple. In the study I cited above they did this by looking at historical data. For example, if the median house in IV has for 50 years sold for 2x what would be suggested by the median income, then this multiple is a good place to start. Basically you’re assuming that history has baked the numbers for these special markets into the pie.
However, I’d point out that this recession has hit higher income people harder than lower income folks, mostly because of the size of the losses in investments and real estate. Pretty much all asset classes got killed. So if IV is a higher income neighborhood, which it obviously is, then that multiple should be at the lower end of the range, if not below the historical range. IMHO of course.
smarten
Hey TD –
FWIW I received e-mails today advising that the three foreclosures on College Ave. you asked about have been relisted for sale [I’m not sure I looked at each of the e-mails, but the listing price was just a hair under $2M]. That tells me the pending sale has been cancelled.
I think the size of each of the homes is a bit under 4,000 square feet which makes the PPSF at close to $500; grossly out-of-whack with the current market given its location/lack of Lake view.
And to our friend in WA who doesn’t think I know anything about anything, I’ll take credit for opining that at $1.3M, any of these homes represents good value [you’ll remember IJJ informed us that the lender had pegged a price of roughly $1.3M/each times 3 for its opening trustee’s sale bid] if you’re an IV SFR buyer.
BanteringBear
Smarten-
What exactly IS your point when it comes to these posts about IV? If you’re not trying to hammer home the point that you feel you bought at the bottom, and are all knowing when it comes to IV real estate, then what is your angle? Care to share?
smarten
Although I probably shouldn’t be wasting my time responding to you BB, here’s my “angle” –
It’s not doom and gloom everywhere. Not everyone who purchases real property in this market is stupid. Not everyone who has purchased has set him/herself up for another 30% drop in value. Not every market is dependent upon purchasers who realize their income from wages, let alone at your magical $65K/year number. And maybe, just maybe, we hit a SFR floor [albeit possibly a temporary one] in IV [or possibly even Reno insofar as the $185K/under segment of the market is concerned] last May.
You and others continue to hammer home the point that the market [whatever and wherever it is] still has a long ways to go until we hit bottom [at least Skeptical has shared his definition of the term]. You talk about SFRs priced at over $500K dying on the vine. You state that the SFR market priced in excess of $1M is non-existent. You point out that if people didn’t see the writing on the wall when you did 6 or more years ago, they had to have gotten the point a year or more ago.
Guy posts Reno/Sparks data that is by and large flat for six months or more, and we don’t hear much from you. But the moment that data suggests an unexpected break [January], and there you go again.
Someone like me who knows his little neck of the woods perhaps better than you shares similar data about little old IV that bucks the Reno/Sparks trend, and rather than accepting that data for what it is, you go on your attacking spree. To bolster your arguments, you try to make me and my purchase the issue when it’s not. Could it just possibly be that IV is acting a bit differently than the persona you’ve created? All I’m trying to do [and obviously, I’ve not been too successful insofar as you’re concerned] is share the data and suggest that maybe, just maybe, things are a bit different here. That’s my angle.
The ultra liberal thinks he/she knows more than everyone else. He/she feels he/she needs to make decisions for everyone else because he/she is enlightened, while everyone else requires parenting. Even when the facts suggest that maybe he/she isn’t as enlightened as he/she thinks he/she is, he/she derides the other guy because he/she sees all, knows all. It’s called narcacism and after trying to respectfully deal with you for over 3 years now, I’d rather not.
You definitely have an agenda BB. You had it in WA when you actively blogged there, and you have it now. You don’t think you have a horse in this race? Your wrong. You’re the horse and the last thing you want to see happen is for your horse to be seen in public as wrong.
Me? Yeah, I have a horse in IV. But whether the residential market goes up or down in the short run, although interesting, I’m not going to lose sleep over it because I’m not a seller. I am confident that in the long run, either everyone’s going down the toilet and it won’t make a whole lot of difference what I may/may not have done, or time will heal all wounds and in retrospect, I will be comfortable with my decisions.
I don’t need your approval for anything BB. So my purpose in sharing what I’m sharing is to help others who may be interested in what’s happening in IV rather than trying to make me and my decisions look good. Every day I travel from Kings Beach into Crystal Bay; or down Mt. Rose Highway from the Summit; I get to tell myself that if I lived here, I’d be home. Well I’m home BB and I’m quite happy to be there. Can you say the same? If so, try to give the other guy a break.
Why did I post to TD about the three homes on College? Because I thought he might like to know that it’s likely the trustee’s sale has been cancelled. The $1.3M times three part was for you because I assume the lender did its due diligence and ultimately concluded what I’ve known for some time.
So now I’ll turn it around to you BB. What’s your angle? Care to share? You don’t live here and haven’t for some period of time. You don’t own any property here [no horse in the race to use your parlance]. Why did you give a rat’s *** as to what happens in the Washoe County residential real estate market?
DownButNotOut
‘I am confident that in the long run, either everyone’s going down the toilet and it won’t make a whole lot of difference what I may/may not have done, or time will heal all wounds’
Well put Smarten. And keep writing in. I don’t always see it like you do, but your posts are well researched and give us a contrast to whats going on in the Reno area. IV and Reno might be considered polar opposites when it comes to RE, and your input helps with seeing the bigger picture.
BanteringBear
Sad, Smarten, just sad. I never thought you, of all people on this blog, would resort to bald face lies in order to try to misrepresent someone who you disagree with. The accusations you make are completely false, and you’re letting emotion dictate permeate your writing. You said:
“You talk about SFRs priced at over $500K dying on the vine. You state that the SFR market priced in excess of $1M is non-existent.”
Where, Smarten? Show me where I said that. I NEVER, EVER said that. Ever. You’re mistaking me for someone else, or you lie. I sure hope it’s not the latter.
Further:
“Someone like me who knows his little neck of the woods perhaps better than you shares similar data about little old IV that bucks the Reno/Sparks trend, and rather than accepting that data for what it is, you go on your attacking spree. To bolster your arguments, you try to make me and my purchase the issue when it’s not. Could it just possibly be that IV is acting a bit differently than the persona you’ve created?”
You forget, Smarten, that’s MY neck of the woods. I grew up there. You’re just another in a long list of transplants from the Bay Area who adopted the place as home late in life. You’re hung up on bubble prices and have absolutely zero regard for, or understanding of, the historical pricing in the area. You’re subscribing to some ‘new paradigm’ theory which was spewed forth endlessly during the bubble run-up.
Insofar as making you and your purchase the issue, YOU are the one who decided to make your personal life fodder for the blog. If you hadn’t paraded your decisions around as the gospel of bottom feeding, we wouldn’t even be talking about it. The minute the discussion turned a direction you didn’t like, you tired of it. Sorry, pal, but you chose that.
Then, out of left field:
“The ultra liberal thinks he/she knows more than everyone else. He/she feels he/she needs to make decisions for everyone else because he/she is enlightened, while everyone else requires parenting. Even when the facts suggest that maybe he/she isn’t as enlightened as he/she thinks he/she is, he/she derides the other guy because he/she sees all, knows all. It’s called narcacism [sic] and after trying to respectfully deal with you for over 3 years now, I’d rather not.”
Ultra liberal? Me? Huh? Where in the hell did you come up with that? Bizarre. And, narcissist? Hah! Look in the mirror, Smarten! Read your posts over the years. It certainly appears you’d know A LOT about the disorder.
Remember this, Smarten: I don’t mind, at all, updates on Incline Village home sales. What I loathe, is the cherry picking of data to try to manufacture a false reality. That’s what you’re engaging in, and that’s why I’ve called you on that BS. I have zero patience for lying salesmen, and that’s what you’ve begun to sound like.
What’s my angle? The same as it’s always been. To poke holes in the falsehoods about housing spewed forth by those with an agenda of greed and selfishness. Had I grown up in Port St. Lucie, FL, I’d be blogging about their housing market. It’s that simple.