January’s Monthly Market Talk report, produced by the Reno/Sparks Association of REALTORS®, has just been released.
- Click here for the January Reno Monthly Market Report.
- Click here for the January Fernley Monthly Market Report.
From the Reno report:
- January ended the month with 346 sold transactions down 17% from the prior month. Sales were up 49% over the same period last year. Historically, this was a record high number of closed transactions for the month of January since 2004.
- January 2010 median price was down 5.3% to $169,925 compared to $179,500 in December 2009.
Sales Mix:
- Bank Owned unit sales were down in January to 136 as compared to 142 in December. Bank owned sales represent 40% of the sales, up from 35% in December.
- Short Sales were at 119 in January, down from 121 reported in December. Short sales represent 35% of the mix in January as compared to 30% in December.
- No Special Condition (None) sales decreased in January to 81 as compared to 107 in December. Sales reported as “No Special Condition” represented 24% of the sales, down from 26% reported in December.
Sounds like basically more of the same, Guy.
75% of the sales are either short sales or bank-owned.
The sales volume at least has increased, indicating that the market is unwinding excess inventory. I would expect in the current economic environment for sales to increase only if the volume sales increase was accompanied by significantly lower prices.
I don’t know, my 150K prediction for median prices at the end of the year might be too optimistic.
I wonder what is the historical percentage of short and bank-owned sales in Reno during relatively good economic times. 5% maybe, I’m just guessing. . .
KingBud alludes to a point that hasn’t been considered much in the last two years regarding sales volume.
Much has been made of historically high sales volumes over the last year. RSAR, NAR, and various other cheerleaders keep enthusiastically referencing high volumes. I reckon the commissions generated are (counterintuitively) making for great business at the real estate companies.
But here is the $64k question. Instead of overall volume, would it be more informative to look at non-distressed volume? We all know that distressed sales make up 70-80% of total volume. So is it really directly analagous to sales volumes of non-distressed sales from healthier times?
If one looks at non-distressed volume in Reno, the stats are absolutely abyssmal. And those stats fly in the face of all the sunshine being blown up our butts by RSAR, NAR, and others.
Tired of hearing how great volume is, while $/sqft continues its descent towards 10 year lows. But if the realtors keep spewing their propaganda and keep convincing buyers that the market is just about to bottom (or already has), they’ll keep volumes high.
Then, in two years, those new buyers can be distressed, underwater sellers, creating new commissions.
Great business model..
Perhaps it is significant that when this blog first went up, Diane Cohn did not know what a short sale was. It had to be explained to her by us old timers. This is no rap on Diane; there was an entire generation of 20 and 30 something realtors who had never seen a short sale.
A bunch of “real estate experts” who had never contemplated the notion that real estate prices could actually decline.
Things change. Things change.
To RI,
I never got the impression you were an old timer.
Having said that, it’s instructive that those of us who have been in the business world for more than a generation see things repeat. As someone once said, history doesn’t always repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme.
Some people on this blog remember gas lines and 14% mortgages.
I remember working a sales job in 1974, right when Nixon attempted to control the economy with wage and price controls.
That didn’t work either.
Borrowing your way out of debt, as the US and all the other first world countries seems intent to do, doesn’t work either.
(As an aside, I’ve discovered that I will have to get either a higher desk or a lower chair for my book. Otherwise I’ll be crippled before my first week.)
Perhaps it’s because we on the back side of 55 have seen nearly everything happen at least once. Not necessarily in our own lives, but seen elsewhere. (Remember when the aerospace industry crashed and burned in the early 1980s? Oh, I forgot–you were in middle school then. My bad.)
If I sound somewhat curmudgeonly tonight, it’s because I’m getting tired of people saying things like “this time it’s different”–it’s not different, just new to you.
Not to me.
And further–
Just because you got a good job right out of college and found a well-priced, preowned Volvo for your first post-college car doesn’t mean you’ve successfully conquered the nuances of living.
As was said some years ago, “Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill.”
20 or 30 something realtors? Diane is probably sending you out a huge cyber hug right now RI. But a good point none the less.
Billd, in relation to humanity, I’m not an old timer. But in relation to many of the people who read here, well, let’s just say I’ve been to few more county fairs.