According to Zillow’s first quarter housing report, home values in several large California markets – the Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Barbara and Ventura MSAs – have stabilized significantly in the past year, marking what may be a bottom. Read the report here: Home Values Continue Nationwide Decline in First Quarter Amid Encouraging Signs in California
From the report: Home values in those markets have risen significantly for at least the past 10 months, after values in all five markets reached a low point in April or May 2009. Although home values could fall again, it is more likely, given current conditions, that they will remain above their lowest level reached last year than fall below.
Doofus
From CoreLogic via the SF Business Times, 70% of Nevada properies with mortgages uner water (75% in LV). http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2010/05/10/daily14.html?ed=2010-05-10&ana=e_du_pub
billddrummer
To Doofus,
Old news to most of us.
Paul
Remains be seen if rising interest rates and the tax credit expiration break the bottom.
Ben Bernanke
How much money do I need to print before all you jackasses get up off your duff and buy a house!
Geeze, the nerve of these people. Claude, George, fire up the presses again!
DonC
Where I am prices are up — and it doesn’t take Einstein to figure that out. New home builders have waiting lines for the new product! But I think this is an aberration. In most places it’s just slightly up, more like a very gradual include, or in some cases just plain flat.
No reason for panic buying, especially since it will be interesting to see what happens when the tax credits expire.
inclinejj
Another brainless article. How can the markets improve when there is no capital in the markets.
Please, don’t post this garbage.
Watch maybe we may have a small flurry of sales for the next couple months but come Sept we go back into the doldrums.
Plus the 2nd wave of foreclosures is just starting.
<>
LikeBigBottoms
This must be the bottom:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/11/jpmorgan-chase-warns-inve_n_571103.html
The nation’s second-biggest bank is warning investors that underwater homeowners may walk away from their mortgages.
“In a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, JPMorgan Chase told investors and regulators that homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth may not continue to make their payments — even when they’re able to.”
“Such so-called strategic defaults, once rare, are now common enough to jeopardize the already-weak housing and mortgage markets,” wrote economists Celia Chen and Cristian deRitis of Moody’s Economy.com in an April 13 note. “If the trend continues, strategic defaults could both accelerate the pace of home foreclosures and also make it harder for new borrowers to obtain mortgages. Both factors would in turn worsen the decline in house prices.”
Time to buy me a house.
DonC
inclinejj — Did you read the article? Seemed right on point to me. Let’s see, the article says:
Additionally, negative equity across the country remained high, with 23.3 percent of single-family homes with mortgages underwater, up from 21.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. Foreclosures reached a new peak in March, with more than one out of every 1,000 (0.11 percent) U.S. homes going into foreclosure during the month.
I’m getting the feeling that any information from any source which you believe is inconsistent with your preconceived narrative automatically gets assigned to the round file under the label “garbage”.
Agnostic
Whistling past the graveyard…..
“Housing Optimists Are “Not Paying Attention” to the Facts, Says Dean Baker”
Baker lays out several reasons for his bearish case:
“Programs that lifted the market, including the tax credit for first-time buyers, have expired.
The Federal Reserve is exiting the mortgage market, which will likely push rates to 5.5% to 6% by the end of the year. There’s still an inventory glut and rental rates are falling in many markets, notes Baker, author of “False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy.” He says the rental market doesn’t lie.”
(You can find the video and entire article at Yahoo Finance — Tech Ticker and search the videos (was too long of an url to link to)
other bearish POV’s…
“More evidence that California is the new Greece.”
….there’s no way they’ll be able to stave off the horrible demand destruction that will result from these “absolutely terrible cuts.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/schwarzenegger-warns-of-terrible-cuts-absolutely-terrible-cuts-coming-in-california-2010-5##ixzz0nkFlHRkx
High unemployment for the near to intermediate term outlook. End of stimulus programs. Shadow inventory. Huge number of homeowners underwater. ‘Strategic defaults’ nearly tripling YOY.
“Hope You Enjoyed the Housing Recovery … Because It’s History, Says Suttmeier”
“Since the recovery in house prices began last summer, homeowners and real-estate agents have embraced what many believe is a return to normalcy (forever rising prices)……
But the trend won’t continue, says Richard Suttmeier, strategist at ValuEngine.com.
“The temporary increase in prices has been driven by government efforts to prop up the housing market, Suttmeier says, and those measures have come to an end. A new wave of foreclosures is hitting the market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become black holes into which taxpayers must shovel endless billions just to keep the mortgage engine running. Most importantly, as measured by the Case-Shiller index, housing prices are still way too high.”
In most major house-price indexes, prices have already begun to roll over and head back down. Suttmeier thinks this trend will continue. In fact, he thinks prices could fall another 25% nationwide.
For a good overview of the trends that concern Suttmeier, see fund manager Whitney Tilson’s latest presentation on the housing market.
http://www.businessinsider.com/t2-partners-housing-market-2010-5
Sure, I can see that light at the end of the tunnel……I’ll put my 20% down…where do I sign?
smarten
So I happen to be in the Bay Area and I pick up today’s Mercury News and what do I read [I understand it’s not Reno but Reno will follow what happens in the Bay Area]:
Silicon Valley Foreclosure Filings Drop [ http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_15062556 ] – 30% since last month; 32% since April of 2009; and, the fifth straight month in which there has been a decline. San Mateo County as well has experienced a drop in home foreclosure filings.
Have Santa Clara County Home Values Hit Bottom? [ http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_15052509?nclick_check=1 ] – “What gives us some confidence…is the fact that you’ve seen sustained periods where you’re not going more negative and in fact are seeing modest to healthy appreciation.”
Median Home Prices Rise in Metro Areas in First Quarter [ http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_15061560 ] – “Home prices rose in nearly 60 percent of U.S. cities in the first quarter of this year, as the housing market started to stabilize thanks to billions of dollars in federal spending.”
Santa Clara County Sees Rise in Short Sales [ http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_14970897 ] – “About one-third of the homes now on the market in Santa Clara County and one-sixth in San Mateo County are owners seeking short sales. In March, about 23 percent of completed home purchases in Santa Clara County were short sales, up from 11 percent a year earlier. In San Mateo County, 12 percent of home purchases in March were short sales, the same as a year earlier.”
Silicon Valley Apartment Rents Nudge Upwards [ http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_14994510 ] – “The average monthly rent for all types of apartments in large complexes climbed to $1,510 in Santa Clara County, up nearly 2 percent from $1,482 in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to a report from RealFacts.”
Higher sales volume, increasing median sales prices, lower foreclosure filings, higher apartment rents – yeah, this market has a long way to go before it hits bottom!
LikeBigBottoms
All conjecture and jovial debates and jabs-in-the-ribs aside, this most definitely is the bottom:
http://www.businessinsider.com/t2-partners-housing-market-2010-5#-1
LikeBigBottoms
definitely the bottom. Definitely…
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/housing-bulls-are-%22not-paying-attention%22-to-the-facts-says-dean-baker-483703.html?tickers=xhb,^dji,^gspc,xlf,tlt,tbt
inclinejj
Don C
Would you like to get on the email list for what I am see out on the street???
I don’t see a bottom any time soon..
But then again I am on the courthouse steps every day!!!!
Rory
LikeBigBottoms is also Denial. What other handles do you intend to use? Let me know so I can ignore them all, idiot.
Frank Town Corners
Lets hope the activity scene in CA moves over the Sierra’s and Reno gets a taste of the bottom.
skeptical
Yeah, right. I guess we’ll see if CA has seen a bottom. Judging from IJJ’s post regarding the state of the market in Pacifica, I think not…
inclinejj
yet again skeptical I am not a realtor thus I don’t have to go out and try to pimp houses upon people.