Below are the mid-year statistics for the Reno/Sparks and Lake Tahoe (Incline Village, East Shore, South Shore and Tahoe City) markets, published by my broker, Chase International.
From the report…
Reno/Sparks 1st-half 2010 compared to 1st-half 2009
- Units sold: 16% increase
- $ Volume: 6% increase
- Median price: 8% decrease
Click on the reports below to enlarge…
smarten
Well even though Sue Lowe’s figures are skewed, she reports that the Incline Village SFR median sales price is up 9% YoY [note that the average sales price is about the same].
Quite a change from the first quarter of this year, wouldn’t you agree Mr. BB, when Sue reported that the Incline Village SFR median sales price was down 45% or more YoY?
san diego
sales up 9% after being down 45% is hardly anything to cheer about..
san diego
8% decrease in median pricing? where is this stable market I keep hearing cheerleaders like mikez talking about???
smarten
San Diego,
Going from a YoY [and not quarter to quarter] difference of minus 45% to a plus 9% in a period of but three months is major. Meaning there was something out of whack with the minus 45% figure which is what I reported at the end of the first quarter.
This is NOT the situation where we’re up 9% from minus 45% [meaning we’re a net minus 36%].
smarten
Question Guy –
Sue Lowe states that the Reno/Sparks June 2009 SFR median sales price was $190K whereas you have reported it to be $180,317. Sue states June 2010’s median sales price was $175K, whereas you have reported it to be $172K.
Why the discrepency?
TitleMan
The “good” news is that the market is deteriorating at a slower pace this year than it was a year ago. Through June 30 this year, the market fell 8% YoY. The market fell more than 12% from 6/30/08 to 6/30/09.
By 2012, the market may actually be done deteriorating.
Then comes years and years of stagnation.
Norton
good point san diego.
Even Guy’s stats show a 6% decline in the median for SFRs from 6/09 to 6/10. 180K to 170K. (Guy revised 6/10 down to $170K). Chase shows 8% for the same period. I don’t know how that can be called “stable” either. Maybe it’s a nice, slow, “stable” decline?
lurker
Meanwhile….
never one to let the facts get in the way of his opinion, MikeZ and those of his ilk wait with baited breath in the shadows, plotting their next move….
Might be time to twist the data one more time and shout down some newcomer, so as not to let too much realistic analysis leak out onto the blog…
longerwalk
You know where you cross the ditch coming north on SW McCarran heading down the big hill? In relation to your vehicle’s downhill angle, the water in the ditch appears to be running uphill, rather steeply. Sometimes it’s a matter of perspective & true illusion as to what is going on. An 8% drop right now looks a lot less steep than a free-fall 45%. When my spouse & I bought in 2006, we thought the market would decline up to 15%, and were willing to buy into that. Life’s interesting.
Dibiasi
So how much has the median dropped since 2006?
In June of 2006, the median was at $339,000.
That is almost exactly a 50% decline to the $170,000 of today.
It’s a good thing, as the realtors say, they are not making any more land. Imagine how bad this decline could have been if they were still making more land?
bob_c
guy’s stats show us flatlining (bottoming) since january 2010—take the six moinths out in 2010 and the chart looks horrible
we got a small bpounce in the last 6 months, but one must deduct 6,500-8,000 from those lows because the money was refunded from purchase price
160K is the line in the sand—if we tred in the 160-170 range for next 6 months stability has returned
y-o-y -8%
6mo to date a little bounce
it is all about jobs and wealth—my indicator is
stock prices, because as they go, generally employment and the wealth effect follow
tax rates are going up for the more affluent very
soon and that will have an impact
inflation is stoking up again so living in a tent with ur cash in cd’s isnt a good option, if you expect a depression
MikeZ
[TitleMan] Through June 30 this year, the market fell 8% YoY. The market fell more than 12% from 6/30/08 to 6/30/09.
Here we go, cherry-picking again. My turn: through May, median and PPSF are both up.
Plot the last 60 mos, what’s the last 12 mos look like to you?
san diego
mikez stop looking at the trees and try looking at the forrest…
I wonder what these cheerleaders will say once the median drops below $170k and the PPSF drops below $100…
shouldn’t take too long.. 😉
TitleMan
Man, lurker, I guess you called that one. Seems this MikeZ fellow has one fragile ego. Shoot down the newcomer indeed.
Every blog has the arrogant know-it-all. Didn’t take long for him to surface, I guess you have some experience with him.
Probably won’t be back.
MikeZ
[SandyEgo] I wonder what these cheerleaders will say once the median drops below $170k and the PPSF drops below $100…
Depends on how far they fall. Normal seasonal fluctuations, spring to fall/winter, run about 5%.
If we see 10% or more, oh-oh.
Guy Johnson
smarten, good question regarding the discrepancy. The answer is: Sue Lowe’s medians are for a six-month time frame. Jan – Jun. Mine are for a 30-day time frame.
smarten
Thanks Guy –
So really, Sue’s data DOSN’T compare second quarter YoY numbers. Rather, it compares YoY YTD numbers. This means that sandwiched into Sue’s June 30, 2009 numbers are those going back to January of 2009 when the monthly median sales price was $200K [in January], $205K [in February], $200K [in March] and $190K [in April]. Given the median sales price for: January of 2010 was $167; February was $170K; March was $176K; and, April was $179,945; I find an 8% decrease to be quite “charitable.”
And this doesn’t even take into consideration that Sue’s numbers are wrong again, because she lumps PUD sales into SFR ones.
The point being that there hasn’t been a 8% decrease in Reno/Sparks’ second quarter 2010 YoY median sales price. It’s more like 4.6% which to me, is pretty uneventful.
But of course that’s just me.
MikeZ
When it comes to Reno/Sparks housing data:
In Guy We Trust.
essy
Dabiasi,
The median would probably be down more than 50% from 2006 if condos were still included in it. Most homes have decreased by more than 50% from what I’ve seen and kept track of.
Dibiasi
essy, you are no doubt right. The condo market in Reno-Sparks has taken a severe beating over the past 4 years. Total freefall. As you can see from the charts, the median condo sale is now $62K.
If condos were included in the metric, I suspect the median would be down more than 60% since mid 2006.
Hauserman
All we are seeing is Reno prices returning to their working class roots.
70% of Reno residents do not have a college degree. 70% of Reno jobs are working class jobs. No criticsm intended here. There is no dishonor in being working class. But it is the reality.
The notion that a $375K house is “mid-range” and within reach for most of Reno’s population is absurd. It was absurd before the bubble, and it has once again become absurd.
The bubble mentality dies hard.
billddrummer
to Hauserman,
You are absolutely right, and I stand corrected about my median price prediction.
I expected incomes to rise this year, but with unemployment up and incomes stagnant, it’s likely that the current median will sustain through year end.
If it doesn’t go lower, that is.