| Sold Price |
Address |
Zip Code |
Comments |
| |
|
|
|
| 47,000 |
2291 Rock |
94131 |
REO 66,780 in 9/1991 |
| 55,000 |
9335 Fleetwood |
89506 |
REO 115,500 in 5/2002 |
| 69,000 |
10097 Zeoplite |
89506 |
REO 118,500 in 3/2003 |
| 100,000 |
337 E 9th St |
89512 |
Last Transaction 1964 |
| 105,000 |
6070 Ingleston #1125 |
89436 |
REO Condo 218,500 in 8/2004 |
| 113,850 |
5547 Thorn Berry |
89433 |
Non Profit Buyer 103,640 in 5/1996 |
| 132,599 |
255 N Sierra #1404 |
89501 |
Montage Condo |
| 132,599 |
17740 Davenport |
89508 |
REO 182,660 in 7/2003 |
| 138,500 |
2401 Riviera |
89509 |
275,000 in 1/2005 |
| 140,000 |
10540 Mizpah |
89506 |
REO 197,000 in 12/2000 |
| 145,000 |
841 Washington |
89503 |
114,500 in 8/1985 |
| 152,000 |
1228 Gilly |
89434 |
151,000 in 1/1998 |
| 170,740 |
960 Damon |
94131 |
REO 151,000 in 1/2005 |
| 175,000 |
2082 Red Leaf |
89434 |
182,638 in 4/1999 Family Sale |
| 181,218 |
255 N Sierra #808 |
89501 |
Montage Condo |
| 185,000 |
3484 Weaver |
89512 |
REO 403,700 in 9/2005 |
| 189,000 |
1108 Scenic Park |
89521 |
380,000 in 8/2005 |
| 199,952 |
5615 Igloo |
89433 |
REO 138,000 in 11/2003 |
| 222,520 |
1056 Crown View |
89523 |
New Lennar |
| 232,500 |
5263 Vista Heights |
89436 |
NRES TD 319,990 in 4/2006 |
| 236,950 |
1044 Crown View |
89523 |
New Lennar |
| 269,900 |
9256 Star Pass |
89523 |
New Sierra Canyon |
| 320,000 |
4095 Willowsprings |
89519 |
378,500 in 4/2004 |
| 390,000 |
5018 Albuquerque |
89511 |
266,789 in 7/1997 |
| 457,000 |
2971 Roundrock |
89511 |
REO 646,729 in 2/2001 |
| 2,000,000 |
355 Wilderness |
89451 |
3.8M in 2/2002 IV |
|
….Executive Homes. If you are not lucky enough to be a print subscriber to the RGJ, you missed this fine article in the Real Estate Insert today. Comments?
MikeZ
Sully
some suggestion MikeZ:
Def Jam – Comedy Central – Last Comic Standing
All good places for a comedian to get a start.
Does my value of my $30K car a) go up, b) go down or c) stay the same when I ask $50K for it? How about $60K? What about $40K?
The answers are: c, c, c.
Since we’re sharing suggestions: http://www.business.unr.edu/econ/
MikeZ
You keep asking about the metrics to define the market. Case-Schiller methodology is the answer.
There is no Case-Shiller for Reno/Sparks/Washoe! You might as well suggest that we use unicorn dust or leprechaun teeth.
I hate to be picky … but … how about some alternate metrics that actually EXIST?
MikeZ
And one more thing … for all those here citing national economic metrics as evidence that the market is crashing, you should know that the August 31 Case-Shiller HPI (latest available) shows widespread improvement:
Sully
MikeZ, your statement was confusing falling asking prices with falling home prices.
Here is a real time example of four houses all recently sold in same neighborhood (Jun – Aug) The first house and largest ask 450 sold 405, the next two were smaller and the same size ask 440 sold 420 and 440, the last (Aug) same size as last two – ask 449 sold 380.
Only one sold at asking price and was the same size as the one sold in Aug for 60K less. So it looks like asking price had some bearing on selling prices in a neighborhood that was in the high 7’s low 8’s at the peak.
HighlyTrainedRealEstateAnalyst
Those who believe that shadow inventory tells very little might want to check out what J.P. Morgan has to say on the topic.
Quoted from an article entitled “Bank Repossession of Homes Sets New Record in August”.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-Repossession-of-Homes-cnbc-1047161091.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Yesterday J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: jpm) cited the “shadow inventory” of foreclosed properties as one of their primary reasons for pushing back their expectations for a housing recovery as far as 2014. No question, a growing supply of repossessed properties will put further downward pressure on home prices, especially given the current 12.5 month supply of existing homes already for sale.
MikeZ
So it looks like asking price had some bearing on selling prices in a neighborhood that was in the high 7’s low 8’s at the peak.
Sully, how much is my $200K house worth if I list it for $300K?
Howard Roark
“how much is my $200K house worth if I list it for $300K?”
What this question misses is that one year ago my now $200K house was worth $230K and 6 months ago was worth $215K.
And none of this depreciation in value shows up anywhwere in the median statistics.
And when my now $200K house is worth $180K a year from now, none of that depreciation will show up in the median statistics either.
Sully
Not only that, he asked the question backwards. It should be – What is my $200K house worth if I ask 150K for it.
GratefulD_420
ohh Smarten and Mike Z…. why? your arguments are becoming soo circular.
You ask what other data should we look at…. I have already suggested several other data sets… too which you obliverate don’t matter. So obviously you care in your AGENDA more than a discussion.
I have said CLEARLY that I appreciate and use Guy’s published data. So you take it to the absolute once again… “Guy shouldn’t even publish the data”
Also… I was going to state clearly… “no one is saying the median doesn’t matter” (except Derrick)… but I also thought it was agreed not to feed him. DONT PUT HIM ON MY SIDE OF THE FENCE. Another one of your dirty tricks.
Anyways… having a discussion with you is amazingly like not having a discussion at all.
GratefulD_420
HTREA – don’t you understand this blog is not about other data or information. The only acceptable discussion is the MEDIAN which has been flat for a year…so discussion OVER!!
sorry. just to be clear I am being sarcastic and only kidding. I love this blog for a one stop shop to Reno Real Estate data, new theories and observations. thanks for the link and comments!
MIKE Z,,, MIKE Z,,, MIKE Z… one more time. You want data for falling “asking prices” look at this link of which I have posted (among others) for you and SMARTEN 4 times in the last 4 to 6 weeks.
http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/reno-nevada/
MORE DATA… but it’s not the MEDIAN so I don’t know why you would want to look at it.
GratefulD_420
To Joe… the unemployment data in Reno is easily trackeable…. it’s just something you don’t want to look at. You don’t want to look becuase it is depressingly scary…. but more likely because its NOT the median and has NOTHING to do with local real estate!
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/nevada/reno/
bob_c
GratefulD_420–
ur median asking data supports my subjective observations–that the denial (unattainable asking prices have shrunk dramatically)—the median sales price remaining flat, but more serious non-denial sellers coming to market. The
fear is the inventory that is piling up in the non denial asking price range COULD create competitive pressures to lower selling prices
the market HAS been somewhat stable, but there are
serious RISKS that it could take a leg down and
many here appear hell bent to prove something that has not yet occurred
the more that pile on trying to wish the market down make me believe that the consensus is in for more frustration
HighlyTrainedRealEstateAnalyst
Grateful D,
I apologize for posting such irrelevant data. I never stopped to consider that the data to which I linked not only had nothing to do with median prices, but it can from a source that is not local to Reno. How would J.P. Morgan know anything about the local Reno real estate market! How could I be so foolish as to think that this article pertains to a state that faces record unemployment and bankruptcies. A highly trained real estate analyst should know better.
It’s just that, after looking at the article closely, it seemed that we may be approaching a bottom sometime between now and the year 2014. Not “the” bottom, but maybe “a” bottom. Maybe even a false bottom followed by either upside or downside potential for long term stability and / or instability.
But, you have set me straight, so I will go back and reassess the data in light of median prices.
HighlyTrainedRealEstateAnalyst
bob_c,
I can’t speak for GratefulD or anybody else, but I have not spent any time “wishing the market down”. I simply look at reality for what it is.
I did wish I could fly once. I also wished for a couple of other things that I shouldn’t mention on a real estate blog. What I learned from my past wishing experiences is that they only come true when they are a reflection of reality.
Sully
bob_c, you make a good point.
However, try having a direct banter with MikeZ and see if you can keep your thoughts straight. I can see where it looks like some people are “wishing the market down” when they (myself included) are trying to make a point that is rejected out of hand – simply because the median is stable and has been for over a year and no other data (no matter who publishes it) is relevant.
In other words “orthogonal”
Sleezy
Mikez is a bonehead who can’t see past his driveway
Sully
Another article for anyone interested:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/u-s-home-prices-face-three-year-drop-as-inventory-surge-looms.html
However, beware as the experts quoted are Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. and they are referring to the national market, which would be orthogonal to Reno real estate.
HighlyTrainedRealEstateAnalyst
What’s wrong with an orthogonal approach to real estate analysis? One possible approach could view the real estate data over the past several years as a series of vectors, each one of which may or may not be orthogonally related to one another. The orthogonallness of the price vectors when analyzed with respect to the median price just might be an excellent predictor of market direction. Or, it might be worthless. But, I would caution one against calling this approach completely worthless because I did use the median price in my calculation.
3niner
I have seen many comments about our recent stability in median prices, and what it does or does not mean, but there’s one suggestion I have not seen.
The median may reflect a reasonably constant level of what people are prepared to spend. As time goes on, they get more and more for the same purchase prices. Thus prices are falling, but the median stays the same.
I don’t know that this is true, because I lack hard data, but I do believe it. I suspect that many others here belive the same thing, if they stop to think about it.
MikeZ
The median may reflect a reasonably constant level of what people are prepared to spend. As time goes on, they get more and more for the same purchase prices. Thus prices are falling, but the median stays the same.
That dynamic is certainly possible, but if it were happening it would be seen as a falling PPSF.
It may be happening *now*, as PPSF has just fallen 5%, MoM, but the data from May 09 until Jul 10 shows no such downward trend.
MikeZ
Not only that, he asked the question backwards. It should be – What is my $200K house worth if I ask 150K for it.
Now THAT’S a very interesting question and I’d love to discuss it with you, but let’s not change the context, which is: asking prices ABOVE the actual value.
How much is my $200K house worth if I list it for $300K?
You say you want direct banter, but you refuse to answer a direct question? … !
Sully
From your description, you’re seeing falling *asking* prices in the higher bands, not selling prices.
How many people have pointed this out over the past several months?
Lots of people have made that claim, but none have presented any real data.
Quite a few have confused falling asking prices with falling home prices, which is what I think you’re doing.
Nowhere do you say anything about asking prices ABOVE the actual value. You claim no one has presented any real data, yet I gave you some real time examples which you haven’t addressed and if you can’t see a correlation between falling asking prices and falling home prices then more data isn’t going to help you.
MikeZ
Nowhere do you say anything about asking prices ABOVE the actual value.
The context of this sub-discussion of falling listing prices v. actual home values is – and always has been – high-end houses selling well below their listing price. There’s no ambiguity in that context.
Some see falling listing prices as falling home values, but 1) FMV is set by SALES, not listings and 2) the remaining evidence, median sale price and PPSF indicate that it’s more likely to be overpricing.
Sully
MikeZ, your claim to fame is one complete real estate transaction 98 – 03, a time frame in which a blind squirrel could have had the same success.
In Class A markets (i.e. Bay Area,LA, San Diego) realtors will not list houses 50K above FMV like some do here. They won’t waste their time in a falling market. Listing prices here will continue to be higher than selling prices until that price band settles (bottoms). For now, listing prices will be higher than selling prices, that’s how it works.
In a stable market, listing prices will be much closer to selling prices, in a rising market listing prices will most likely lag the selling price as bidding wars will surface.
So, yeah some people see falling listing prices as falling home values. Especially the neighbors of the last house that just sold for over 50% of peak value.
Sully
A slight correction in above. In class A markets realtors will not list their houses 50K above other listings in the neighborhood, like some do here.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
“MikeZ, your claim to fame is one complete real estate transaction 98 – 03, a time frame in which a blind squirrel could have had the same success.”
In the northeast US, no less. It appears as if MikeZ has never even lived in the Reno area when homes were priced in terms of what wages afforded. He’s talking about great buys on executive homes, but I don’t honestly think he has even an inkling of what those homes sold for historically, and I seriously question his expertise in this market. $500k would buy you a mansion in Reno a little more than 10 years ago. All of those cute little bungalows in the old SW which everyone oooohhs and aaaahhs over could be purchased for well under $200k. Still a lot of pain coming down the pike.
3niner
MikeZ —
That dynamic is certainly possible, but if it were happening it would be seen as a falling PPSF.
That is one way that it can show up. Falling prices can also be reflected through higher quality properties available for the same price, properties with more amenities, properties with better locations, etc. PPSF is just one measure of value, there are many others which do not show up readily in our data.
Believe what you want, you will anyway. My comment was intended for those others who read this blog, and are a little more open minded.
lurker
Why the fixation on what MikeZ (aka Balls McNasty) thinks? Anyone who’s read this blog for longer than a week or two knows he’s a complete idiot with a closed mind and no skin in the game.
When I see his comments I just skip it and go to the next one.
SVE (BB?) pretty well nails it…
LikeBigBottoms
This absolutely, positively must be the bottom:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/u-s-home-prices-face-three-year-drop-as-inventory-surge-looms.html?source=patrick.net#related_categories_tags_top
And I’m sure that the smartest folks on this site, like MikeZ and Smarten would agree…
MikeZ
Sully said (lot of unrelated, disjointed stuff)
? I agree with pretty much all of that, but as usual, none of it was relevant to anything that *I* wrote!
I hereby knight thee “Captain Orthogonal.”
MikeZ
Falling prices can also be reflected through higher quality properties available for the same price…
Yes, excellent point. Is such a metric available?
3niner
MikeZ —
Yes, excellent point. Is such a metric available?
Unfortunately, probably not. The only such metric, that I know of, comes from Case-Shiller, and they don’t cover the Reno area.
This leaves us guessing about the meaning of a relatively constant median, while many of us see non-quantitative evidence of prices that continue to fall. This is the basis for most of the market arguments that we currently see on this blog.
Horatio
“This is the basis for most of the market arguments that we currently see on the blog.”
This is the basis of 99.5% of all discussion on this blog now. This blog has become a one trick pony with the same 8 people saying the same things to each other over and over and over.
MikeZ
many of us see non-quantitative evidence of prices that continue to fall.
And what evidence is that?
smarten
Horatio –
Since you’re tired of hearing the same old, same old, I’m going to stop posting for awhile insofar as the state of the market is concerned. So as the median sales price stays within its $170K-$180K range; and, skeptical, GratefulD and others point to subjective factors they assert represent a better indicia; you think of what my response would be. Fair enough?
I think what you’ll be left with is a pony with only half a trick. And if you don’t like that, how about you and the others sitting on the sidelines contributing?
3niner
And what evidence is that?
Shopping, over an extended period of time. Many, who have done that, claim to see increasing values available for a fixed price level. Without quantitative data, it doesn’t mean much, except to those who experience it.
MikeZ
Shopping, over an extended period of time. Many, who have done that, claim to see increasing values available for a fixed price level.
Shopping exposes you to asking prices. Unless you are looking at actual SALE prices, how do you know that value is changing?
3niner
Shopping exposes you to asking prices. Unless you are looking at actual SALE prices, how do you know that value is changing?
You only get a data point when you make an offer which is turned down, then see more available for less at a later date. This is extremely limiting. As I mentioned earlier, lack of Case-Shiller data makes it impossible to have a clear picture of the situation here in Reno.
Anonymous Coward
I’m a long-time lurker and long-time bear, but I have a hard time refuting MikeZ’s median-based claims of price stability over the last year, even though it struck me as wrong when I first heard it.
Re 3niner’s: “You only get a data point when you make an offer which is turned down, then see more available for less at a later date.”
If you’re comparing a turned-down offer, rather than a sale price, then it’s still not sale prices to sale prices.
Personally, I’ve been looking for a house on and off for the last 8 months or so (in the neighborhood of $250k), and comparing the asking prices of the stuff that was selling 8 months ago to asking prices today, I don’t perceive any significant decrease in pricing over that time.
The closest thing we have to a Case-Shiller index in Reno is probably Zillow. Zillow does have its flaws, but for what it’s worth, it says prices have fallen around 5% in that same time period (depending on where you’re looking). From my own observations, I can’t claim any different: house pricing is sufficiently scattershot that it’s unlikely I would have noticed a 5% price drop.
Personally I expect prices will continue a slow decline in the upcoming year. But then again, when I first moved here in 2006 I thought (or hoped?) it would only take a year or so for prices to crash back to historical norms. So what do I know?
Skeptical
Listings like mls 100003765 tell me that this market still has a ways to go. Anybody looking for $ 200/sqft for a standard house in a standard neighborhood in this market is delusional. I Don’t care what the median is, there is still lots of denial out there.