You’ll probably be hearing a lot of the “Great Depression” comparisons with regards to house values in the coming days and weeks. That’s because in a report just released by Zillow.com, its Chief Economist, Stan Humphries, wrote: “With home values 25% below their peak and 51 consecutive months of declines, the length and severity of the current downturn is fast approaching the length and depth of the Depression-era housing declines.”
And just what was that depression-era housing decline? According to Robert Schiller, nominal home values fell 25.9% during the period of Great Depression.
The report, It’s Going to Be Another Long, Hard Winter in Housing, released yesterday on Zillow.com, states that foreclosures reached a new peak, 1.17 out of every 1,000 homes in the U.S., at the end of the third quarter; the highest number in Zillow’s foreclosure database.
Those figures are for the nation as a whole. Looking at Zillow’s most recent number for Reno, NV, Zillow reports a foreclosure rate 0.224 percent, or 2.24 out of every 1,000 homes. Though nearly twice the nation’s rate, Reno’s foreclosure rate is only half of Las Vegas’ rate of 0.443 percent.
According to Zillow.com’s September 2010 Real Estate Market Report the month-over-month change to its Home Value Index for Reno, Nevada is -1.1 percent. Reno’s year-over-year change to the index is -9.9 percent. See Reno Metro.
When will the declining house values stop? Mr. Humphries prediction: “Nationally, we now don’t expect home values to hit bottom until first half of 2011 at the earliest due to continuing increases in foreclosure volumes.”
another anonymous coward
I think RRB VIP is some college professor or something.
I also just had an alarming thought. What if this entire blog is a single conversation within one demented persons head? Think of the brain bending repercussions if Smarten, BB, MikeZ, CL, IJJ, Derrick, RI, skeptical, and the Professor dude (aka MVC, RRB VIP, the dude, etc….) were all the same warped guy? Boggles the mind.
Very disturbing, very disturbing indeed. Might make a good movie, though.
smarten
Your welcome RRB VIP. Now henceforth, shall we refer to you to by RRB VIP [I don’t think the VIP reference is too pretentious. My gosh, in my book your vocabulary and grasp of foreign languages entitles you to claim VIP status]? Or MVE? Or,
hmmm [only kidding]?
MikeZ
smarten and MikeZ, what say you with regard to CommercialLender’s calculations? Is he wrong?
Don’t know, don’t care. The original comment was not intended to be mathematically rigorous.
Would you like to discuss the actual issue: I believe that a lower cost to borrow can offset a decline in value?
MVC/RRBVIP
Well, I can’t add anything to that, MikeZ. Why bother with satire to show the absurdity of your comment when it is so clearly absurd on its face.
smarten, thanks again for a thoughtful and comprehensive comment.
another anonymous coward, perhaps the different posters are just potential particles in a single quantum system, and the RRB exists in a superposition of states until an observer reads it, at which time the different particles take on the form of the different posters. Stranger things have happened, or so the quantum theorists tell us.
my fifth moniker today....
aha…. the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle for the RRB. Nice….
Reno Ignoramus
Finally somebody explains it!
I have always suspected that the RRB is Schrodinger’s cat.
bob_c
with each new id they must also use a different email or risk being outted by guy or mike
smarten
Not so bob_c. I think Guy would tell you that although he may know the ISP from which a particular post originates, he doesn’t necessarily know the identity of the poster. Further even if he knows that a particular poster is using alternative identit[ies], doesn’t necessarily mean he’s inclined to block that person’s blogs. As an example, look at Derrick. And now look at MVC [who admittedly posts as RRB VIP and now my fifth moniker today…. (don’t forget the dots)]. So the burden falls upon us to self-police the integrity of this blog.
MVC/RRBVIP
Actually, “my fifth moniker today….” is not me, but I like his/her sense of humor. There is nothing wrong with a little satire, even if it is at my expense. 😉
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
“Not so bob_c. I think Guy would tell you that although he may know the ISP from which a particular post originates, he doesn’t necessarily know the identity of the poster.”
I believe you’re mistaken. Everybody who posts here is required to enter an e-mail address which only the administrator can see. Guy is the administrator and, as such, has access.
Sully
Interesting items on Mitch’s List today. 13 new listings, 2 back on market and a whopping 23 price reductions.
Sully
In other news, the House ethics committee found Rep. Rangel guilty of financial misconduct. Amazing out of 435 congressman only one!
And this is the same congress that can’t seem to find any wrong doings at Citi, JPM or Goldman!!!!!!
smarten
Mr. SVE, don’t mean to split hairs but I think you’re wrong. You state, “everybody who posts here is required to enter an e-mail address which only the administrator can see. Guy is the administrator and, as such, has access.” This is an accurate statement but as you know, it’s very easy to make up an e-mail address tied to a particular ISP. Although Guy may have access to the e-mail address someone has “made up,” he has no way of knowing the identity of the person who submitted the address.
That’s why if we were all administrators, we’d know that you’re Mr. BB, and MVC is not. And even if we knew, that doesn’t necessarily mean that someone using more than one identity would be restricted in his/her postings. The fact we know of “shadow posters” on this blog, confirms this fact; wouldn’t you agree?
lurker
If I remember correctly, Wazoo is an IT guy. He probably knows who we all are. Nice that he hasn’t “outed” anyone. Maybe we shouldn’t try to upset him.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
“That’s why if we were all administrators, we’d know that you’re Mr. BB, and MVC is not. And even if we knew, that doesn’t necessarily mean that someone using more than one identity would be restricted in his/her postings. The fact we know of “shadow posters” on this blog, confirms this fact; wouldn’t you agree?”
No, I don’t agree. Just as someone can create multiple e-mail addresses, so can they disguise their IP address. If someone is determined, they can hide in relative anonymity on the internet. So, in essence, if you were an administrator, you would not know me from Adam if I didn’t want you to. Which, consequently, you don’t. I was stating that Guy had access to the e-mail addresses entered, something which Bob_C pointed out, and that you disagreed with.
MVC/RRBVIP
Lurker,
I am not sure about GrandWazoo. I know that he has told us he teaches at UNR, but I do not recall whether he has identified his field.
If memory serves, MikeZ is a programmer or a software engineer. I seem to recall that he challenged Derrick when Derrick claimed to have worked on the 802.11 wireless standard.
Ah – the good old days, when most of us (even BB, smarten, and MikeZ) were united against the great Oracle of Sparks, Derrick, who was at that time still mocking anyone who believed that the median would ever fall below $220k again.
MikeZ
WordPress can be configured to log IP addresses. Turn it on and I guarantee you the stalker will run like a cockroach.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
MikeZ is really getting rattled here. I love it!
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
“If memory serves, MikeZ is a programmer or a software engineer. I seem to recall that he challenged Derrick when Derrick claimed to have worked on the 802.11 wireless standard.”
MikeZ was stalking Derrick. He posted Derrick’s name, physical address, etc.
Who is pretending to be who?
Derrick used to include his last name on his early posts. From there it was an easy journey to ascertain where he lived.
Smarten has essentially informed the blog of his real name and address as well.
GreenNV
As someone with a WordPress blog. let me clarify a few things:
– The email field is a sham. You can enter Yahoo or anything that looks like a legitimate address, and the system will let you through. But if you use a true email address, we can contact you off the blog, so weigh if that might be of value.
– IP address – Every comment you post on a WordPress blog transmits your IP address, and this can be read by the Administrator. This is not true over at Blogger, but Google is mining your data there.
– Static IP addresses – These are typical if you have a cable company as your ISP. Your IP is unique. An Administrator could search the Comments tab of the Dashboard, bringing up not only all the posts under the the IP, but also identify the aliases you have been using.
– Dynamic IP addresses – Typical if you are on DSL A bunch of people can come in on the same IP address, since the addresses are pooled by the ISP. We can backtrack using whois to find the general region the comment originated from, but can’t identify the commenter. Reno Ignoramus and Lindy used to come in with the same IP which caused some internal speculation at the blog until we realized that a bunch of other comments showed up with the same IP, and they were definitely not related. Still wonder, though, if IR and Lindy weren’t Yin and Yang.
– Search – We can search all comments from the Dashboard for poster, IP address, or just about anything. I wish the reader search interface was as good.
– Authority – A WordPress Administrator owns the blog and sets the look and feel, and is basically god. An Editor can do just about everything the Administrator can, but can’t change the look or basic settings of the blog. No one has Editor status on RRB as far as I know. Author (me) gets to post at will, and can control the comments on my posts only. I don’t get to see site stats which are really good on WordPress, but I deal with it
– Masking your IP address – sure it can be done, but it is a pain. This a freaking real estate blog and generally pretty benign. I don’t think anyone would find it worth the effort.
– Does RRB use the tracking tools available to them? Nope. It’s only a blog, dudes.
So can we read some personal information from your comments on WordPress? In some cases, actually yes. Do we? Nah. It is to much fun being instigators in the discussion of Reno real estate to jeopardize it with privacy concerns.
bob_c
i said risk being outed….as in its possible there is an obvious trail
but even if guy knows its an ethical question what he might do
bob_c
my point is that is so high schoolish to be making multiple names and then having to
use multiple email addresses
its not something you would want anyone you know to know—you’d have to be
ashamed of doing it
MVC/RRBVIP
Wow — I never thought of using fake e-mail addresses. I have used the same (valid) e-mail address for all three of my current monikers (MVC, RRBVIP, and now, MVC/RRBVIP). How short sighted of me to not realize I needed to hide it from Guy and Mike McG! Now what will I ever do?
And OMG, they can track my IP?!?!?! I never realized that could happen! I had better quit commenting on poorly crafted arguments or I could be… wait… is there a penalty for pointing out poorly crafted arguments?
I know, I might be violating the terms of service of the RRB, which could get me… wait… did we agree to any explicit terms of service?
Now I am confused. Why exactly would someone “run like a cockroach” because of IP logging? Unless I were assuming another poster’s identity and/or engaging in unlawful activity, I cannot imagine why I would care that the RRB is logging my IP.
The only two things that disturb me are (1) that supposedly intelligent people could read a BB/SVE post and one of mine and not realize we are vastly different people; and (2) that BB/SVE has actually lowered himself to the level of siding with Derrick. Derrick brought it on himself.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
“The only two things that disturb me are (1) that supposedly intelligent people could read a BB/SVE post and one of mine and not realize we are vastly different people; and (2) that BB/SVE has actually lowered himself to the level of siding with Derrick. Derrick brought it on himself.”
I am “Smarten’s Vanishing Equity”, not BB/SVE. Furthermore, I did not “side” with Derrick. I do not like Derrick. I merely pointed out the fact that we have a commenter in MikeZ who likes to throw around the word stalker when he, as far as I know, is the only individual on this blog who was actually digging up personal information on another poster, going so far as to glean his physical address amongst other things. I don’t care if his fascination was Derrick- that’s creepy.
For someone of such vast intelligence, it’s surprising you could not come up with your own moniker instead fashioning it after mine.
smarten
That’s one of the things I like about Mr. BB – he’s a pot that calls the kettle black. Example. He chastizes MVC, “for someone of such vast intelligence, [for]…not com[ing] up with [his] own moniker instead fashioning it after” Mr. BB’s. Well let’s see – is there anyone else on this blog who goes by the name “smarten?” If so, then “for someone of such vast intelligence, it’s surprising [Mr. BB] could not come up with [his] own moniker instead fashioning it after mine.”
MVC/RRBVIP
Now smarten, Mr. Vanishing Equity is correct. I am properly chastised. Let me think of another identity.
How about “BelligerentBear”? That one should not offend Mr. Vanishing Equity, as it is in no way related to him. In fact, as a poster with a similar name has not posted in quite some time, I do not believe anyone would have reasonable grounds to object.
Or if that one is not acceptable, perhaps SVE, where SVE is a recursive acronym that stands for “SVE’s Vast Egotism” or “SVE’s Volatile Emotionality.” I think even Mr. Vanishing Equity would have to admit that those monikers contain more than de minimis creativity.
skeptical
Guys, nice discussion, but I thought I’d go a bit off topic here and discuss a bit of real estate. Forgive me if I’m digressing from your above….
I’ve noticed a good number of houses in Newlands Manor with some nice price reductions lately. Wazoo mentioned this a long time ago as his dream neighborhood. Steve Herschbach (sp?) got tired of waiting and wanted to please the wife, so he jumped in. Paid a premium price, too, if I remember correctly.
Well, I’m seeing homes on Marsh, Manor, Circle, and St. Lawrence ranging close to $150psf. Sounds expensive for Reno, but it’s a pretty good bargain for the Old Southwest. That area and South Suburban near Zolezzi with those nice big 1 acre lots are my two favorite parts of Reno.
I’ll go ahead and call this the sign that the mid to high end is finally cracking in Reno. Expect to see more compression in that price range going forward. At this rate, there might be some bargains in the foreseeable future in that price range. I don’t know if I could have said that last year. FWIW….