Happy New Year, All!
Today let’s take a look back at the Reno-Sparks housing market of 2010 by the numbers.
5,298 houses were sold in 2010. This was slightly more than the 5,253 units sold in 2009 – a 0.85 percent increase to be exact.
Unfortunately, the same could not be said of 2010’s median sales price. The median sold price for 2010’s sales was $172,500 – a 6.7 percent drop from 2009’s median of $185,000.
2010’s overall sales volume of $1,131,119,211 was down 3.4 percent from 2009’s sales volume of $1,170,624,105
In 2010 the most expensive home sale was a 7,000-sq.ft custom home on three acres in Southwest Reno that sold for $3.15 million. A close second was the Historic Steen Mansion in Washoe Valley, which sold for $3 million.
The least expensive? One-half of a duplex in Stead for $7,500.
How did 2010’s sales breakout by price band?
| sales price ($000’s) | units sold | cumulative % | average DOM |
| 0 – 99 | 586 | 11.1 | 121 |
| 100 – 199 | 2,676 | 61.6 | 129 |
| 200 – 299 | 1,206 | 84.3 | 132 |
| 300 – 399 | 394 | 91.8 | 141 |
| 400 – 499 | 206 | 95.7 | 178 |
| 500 – 599 | 87 | 97.3 | 200 |
| 600 – 699 | 50 | 98.2 | 185 |
| 700 – 799 | 27 | 98.8 | 183 |
| 800 – 899 | 19 | 99.1 | 325 |
| 900 – 999 | 14 | 99.4 | 330 |
| 1M+ | 33 | 100 | 275 |
| total | 5,298 |
As can be seen from the table above over 60 percent of house sales sold for less than $200,000; and 84 percent sold for under $300,000.
Not surprisingly, house sales over $1 million were down in 2010. There were 33 residential sales for over a million dollars in 2010 – down from the 39 $1M+ sales in 2009.
2010’s median sold price per square foot also declined. A median sold price of $99.16/square-foot in 2010 was down nearly 6 percent from 2009’s median sold price per square foot of $105.40.
Distressed properties (short sales and bank-owned) continued to dominate the market for 2010 – accounting for two-thirds of all sales. This was down slightly from 2009 when distressed properties accounted for nearly 70 percent of the year’s sales.
2010’s sales break out by type as follows:
| type of sale | units sold | % |
| short sales | 1,835 | 34.6 |
| bank-owned | 1,679 | 31.7 |
| equity sale | 1,710 | 32.3 |
So what will 2011 hold? Your comments welcomed.
Note: The residential sales data reported above pertains to the cities of Reno, Nevada and Sparks, Nevada [NNRMLS Area #100]. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built properties only. Data excludes Condo/Townhouse, Manufactured/Modular and Shared Ownership properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – January 2011. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
smarten
What will 2011 hold?
One year ago I made the following statement based upon an analysis of the last ten years of data: “I expect January 2010?s median sales price to be the lowest of 2010.” If I’m not mistaken the median sales price in January of 2010 was $167K – the lowest of 2010!
If December 2010’s median sales price was $172.5K [not sure that’s what Guy has reported – I’m sure we’ll learn more within the next few days], then I was correct.
So based upon an analysis of now eleven years of data, I believe the median sales price in January of 2011 will be the lowest of 2011! If I am correct again, it kind of makes one blogger’s prediction of a $138K median sales price nothing more than a pipe dream [at least for now two years].
Guy Johnson
smarten,
Just to clarify, the $172,500 is the median sales price for the entire year of 2010. December’s median will be forthcoming.
bob_c
The average of the medians for 2010 for 11 months was 173,700,
To drop the average of the medians by 1200 (to 172500) would place decembers average median at 159300.
bob_c
Thw avg of the medians ppsf for 11 months was 99.55. To drop that avg to 99,16
would mean december ppsf was 94..87
The everage of the medians would be a fairly accurate estimator of decembers numbers…..but i suspect some discrepancy with the cumulative and monthly totals
by the NNR-MLS calculators.
Simple math–add up 11 months ppsf or median and deduct that from 12 times the
cumulative yearly total provided us.
bob_c
159,300 @ 94.87 per sf is quite possible though. I’ve noticed fewer higher end
listings in last few months (I check the new listings daily—yesterdays highest
asking price of 16 listings is 240,000). I think people in ‘nicer’ homes dont list during
holidays, but 159,300 would be cause for alarm.
bob_c
guy—-those that release this data should be consistent and provide decembers
numbers with their yearly totals……..it opens the door for speculation and credibility
of their prior monthly data for us to have to try and ‘back out’ their normal monthly
figures. Or if their prior data is accurate we should see 159,300 @ 94.87 (thereabouts)
who cares what the yearly median is……we want the freshest monthly data in this
tenuous environment.
MikeZ
The average of the medians for 2010 for 11 months was 173,700
?? The average value of a year’s worth of monthly median values makes no statistical sense. What kind of information are you trying to calculate?
bob_c
I’m trying to back out December’s monthly numbers. The monthly median was
averaging 173,700 heading into December. The year end figure was 172,500.
It would take a 159,300 December number to get the yearly figure down.
I’m hoping they use some different method to calculate the median on a yearly basis
than they do monthly or we are in for a shock.
Its just a math problem MikeZ. We have the yearly median and we have 11 months
median data. The missing month (December) is x. Solve for x.
bob_c
I understand that the spread of prices in December trumps the method I’m using.
Based on the data we have I have the best guess estimate for Decembers medians.
Sully
bob_c there is no math formula for calculating the middle of the list number. It’s the number at 50% or half below and half above. Are you thinking average?
Grand Wazoo
bob_c – gotta ask, what was your grade in Statistics 101? MikeZ is correct, your approach to this problem is FUBAR. To calculate the median selling price for the entire year you need the dataset for the entire year – there is no other way to calculate the number.
MikeZ
bob_c – gotta ask, what was your grade in Statistics 101? MikeZ is correct, your approach to this problem is FUBAR. To calculate the median selling price for the entire year you need the dataset for the entire year – there is no other way to calculate the number.
Exactly.
bob_c
i agree…..but to estimate based on the data provided gives an
educated guess
actually i got A in statistics and was singled out by the professor
and probability is second nature to me
i sure hope my estimate is wrong!
MVC/RRBVIP
bob_c,
Your methodology would only be predictive IF the yearly median were the mean of the monthly medians. However, it is not. It is the median of the data set from the entire year, and therefore it is determined by the values in the whole set, not by averaging the median of the values in the subsets. Or put another way, we cannot predict the median of a subset from the median of the whole set, and thus your calculation has no predictive value.
billddrummer
So who won the prediction?
Guy Johnson
billddrummer,
From the ground rules I specified for the contest: “I will pull the sales numbers sometime shortly after January 7th, 2011…”.
I’ve looked at the preliminary numbers. I believe many readers will be surprised.
– Guy
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
Guy posted the median for all of 2010 to be $172,500. Since there are 12 months in the year, this means that $172,500 is the average of the two middle numbers since to find the median in an even data set you add the two middle numbers together then divide by two. Looking at the previous months in the year, I can only conclude that the December median was $170,050, or that Guy’s $172,500 is rounded up from an actual $172,475 (using the median prices of $170,000 and $174,950) and that December’s median falls below $170,000. It has to, or else he has miscalculated the yearly median.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
PS- My bet is on Guy rounding up from $172,475, December’s median surprising to the downside, and more scorched equity in Incline Village.
Guy Johnson
The main reason I’m waiting until the 7th to pull the data is that December sales are still trickling in on our MLS. For example I just pulled all of 2010 house sales and see that the new total is 5,313 (rather than the 5,298 that I reported on January 1st). However, these fifteen additional sales have not affected the median sold price of $172,500 for the year.
Out of curiosity, I checked and found that eight houses sold for $172,500 in 2010.
[No rounding is occurring, SVE]
When I post December’s numbers, I’ll also update the data in the post above.
MVC/RRBBVIP
Perhaps I am being a dunderhead here, but why would anyone use the monthly medians to compute the yearly median, either by taking the mean or finding the median of the monthly numbers? The yearly median is found by examining the entire data set of sales over the 365 day period, not by manipulating monthly data/calculations.
Guy posted that the sales total for 2010 was 5,298 units. To find the yearly median, we would take the mean of the two middle values found in the 5,298 unit data set.
Unless I am missing something, the December median is not calculable from the data we have been given to date (11 monthly medians and the yearly median).
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
I see my error. I was calculating the monthly median, not the median for all sales.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
You’re not being a dunderhead, MVC, I was calculating the median monthly sales price.
MVC/RRBVIP
Or, in light of Guy’s January 3, 2011 at 11:29 AM post above, the yearly median is found by locating the midpoint in a 5,313 unit data set, not by finding the median of the monthly medians.
Smarten's Vanishing Equity
Knowing that the median sales price for the year is $172,500, if I had all sales up until December 1st, I could arrive at an educated guess as to whether December’s median was higher or lower.
Randy
Happy New Year… Here’s to hoping for a better year next year!
bob_c
The data set is so large that the average of the monthly medians should be predictive,
knowing the yearly total. The splatter of another months salesaccross the price range on the median shouldn’t affect the yearly number unless it was tilted up or down.
But with real estate data……..the group that assembles the data often influences the outcome and it seems that getting a year end number out for the press (because
it was year end) was more importasnt than getting out the monthly data that i’ve been
fearing is soft.
Or just slammed together some numbers to meet a deadlne.
Reno Ignoramus
Thank you Guy for this fine post. This blog continues to tbe the only site, at least that I am aware of, that makes this info available. You continue to provide an excellent service.
Move to Reno?
Wasn’t the contest all about what the December 2010 median price would be? If so, the previous 11 months don’t mean anything.
bob_c
Per the data the median ppsf for year end 2010 is 99.16/sf
which is LOWER than any individual month during the 11 reported
on 2010.
If the year end median ppsf is lower than ANY individual month how
can December not be a disaster OR there is a change in the calculation
method.
Sully
bob_c
Go back to the November median sales data – the lowest month was Nov at 96.29
bob_c
I’m not trying to be right. Some real statistical inconsistencies are
smacking me in the face in comparing year end to the data of 11 months.
Sorry for posting so much. >>>>>>>>Please answer previous post<<<<<<<<<<<
Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!
bob_c
Sully,
MY error. I’m going to shuit up. You are right …i was seeing 96.16 in my mind when i scrolled the list of 11 months looking for evidence to support my case.
I was wrong !!!!!!!!!!! I’m eating crow.
skeptical
Guy,
It seems many are anxiously awaiting your post this weekend with the December totals. All in all, your poll seems to have been very popular.
I respectfully forward a motion that we run a similar poll for next year. What will the median be in Dec 2011, or Jan 2012? What I like about this little contest is that all of us blowhards will need to reconcile our overconfidence in our prognostications with reality. For some, it may not be pleasant….
Guy Johnson
RI, Thank you for your kind words.
skeptical, I agree and am planning on announcing a follow-up contest for predicting the median sales price for December 2011. However, I request that readers refrain from predicting until I announce the contest (probably on the 7th). It will be much easier to compile the predictions from the comments of one post instead of spread out over many posts.
longerwalk
Guy, you might consider a January to January event. Januarys are awfully dull . . . this would liven it up a little!
MikeZ
I’m 95% sure smarten won the contest, that scoundrel Price-Is-Righted me after I came up with $175K, slipping in at $172K.
Anonymus
Won’t predict where Guy’s numbers will settle on Saturday (esp. since he promises to surprise a few) but I have noticed a coupla things.
Until recently I would just be amazed at the number of sellers in denial in the Old Southwest, Arrowcreek, Caughlin Ranch and Montreux. These folks were typically asking north of $250/sqft for their underwater, overpricd properties. Today, though rationality seems to be on the return. While Montreux remains in kool-aid land, older parts of Reno are showing interesting values. Lots of very nice homes in great neighborhoods for <$400k. It is not uncommon to find beautiful, upscale homes in the OSW or Caughlin Ranch for less than $150/sqft. People with good jobs (any left?) can snap up a few great deals in some prestigious parts of town.
Cash flow. Lots of places at the lower end will cash flow positive with little down. The enterprising might consider picking up a half dozen SFH <$100k with little down and just let the rent checks poor in. Better return than a passbook savings account, anyway.
Reno-Tahoe a magnet. The principle thing keeping people from Reno is jobs. (master of the obvious?). Knowing many, many people who graduated from area high schools, but now live out of the area, most will tell you they would move back in a heartbeat. They miss the Sierra, the miss Tahoe, they miss the generally good folk of northern Nevada. But, they can't get a job. If this economy ever turns around, Reno might turn right around with it.
All that said, it is difficult to see how the local economy would once again boom. It is difficult to imagine where the jobs will come from. It is difficult to not just presume that we had a bubble, and the future will be a flat line in growth (at best) for as far as the eye can see.
Nice to not be booming. I hate new developments. I hate open space being plowed under for new commercial space. I hate traffic. I like stability, and neighborhoods staying the same. Growth is not a panacea. The principle beneficiaries of unbridled growth are developers and politicians (who are paid by developers). Perhaps an era of little to no growth will be beneficial to the area, and allow us to properly plan long term projects.
Food for thought, while we all await the stats.
Reno Ignoramus
Anon….
$400K is the upper end now. 92% of everything that sells is below $400K.
$400K is almost 2.5 times the median.
$400K is about 6 times the average household income in Reno.
Welcome to Reno without the Biggest Bubble in History inflating values to absurd levels and without the Voodoo loan witchdoctors handing out $400K loans to bus boys. I agree, nice to be not booming with Voodoo money juiced “developments” all over town.
Welcome to normal.
Earl
Check out MLS 100009465
575 Willow Street
4,160 sq. ft. for $175K?
I see that it need some work, but $42 a sq. ft.?
smarten
I know it’s premature, but if you take a look at Guy’s “Still a Buyer’s Market in the Reno/Sparks Area” blog today, you will see that Susan Lowe is quoted as follows: “the median price of a home in the Reno-Sparks area dropped seven percent [YoY] to $172,500.” I agree Susan is a shill when it comes to the state of the market. And her numbers for Incline Village are not accurate because by definition, she has combined lower priced PUDs combined with SFRs [although I imagine her YoY percentages for this blended product are accurate]. But I’ve generally found Susan’s underlying data to be accurate, FWIW.