Morningstar report predicts rising home prices

Foreclosures Market Trends by Guy Johnson

Thank you to a long-time reader of the Reno Realty Blog, as well as long-time client, for passing along the following link from a Morningstar® report: Home Prices Going Higher This Spring?

This optimistic piece predicts increases in home prices in the near- and possible intermediate-terms.  What leads the analysts to that conclusion?  Namely that the supply of new homes has been so constricted in the last few years that there’s little surplus homes in existence today.

And what of foreclosures and shadow inventory you may ask? From the report, “We believe the market has largely priced in the fact that many of these units are coming back onto the market. Many sit in poor locations, are too big, and feature amenities that are uncompetitive in today’s market.”

17 comments

  1. Walter

    “there’s little surplus homes in existence today”.

    This on the tail of your thread that there are 167,564 empty houses in Nevada.

    I love it Guy, I love it.

  2. Grand Wazoo

    “Now is a great time to buy”.

  3. Cheerios

    The message of this piece is that there has never been a better time to buy stock in the homebuilder companies. Those very companies listed right there in the link. In fact, you can buy a Morningstar Fund that invests in these very same homebuilder companies. Just call Morningstar’s 800 number and sign right up.

  4. Pest Control

    Idon’t know how anyone can predict with any sort of optimism. I suppose, this has to break at some point, but I’m not sure anyone would be amazed if this recession goes on for another six months.

  5. Some Guy

    You people are obviously missing the point of the report. We have reached either a bottom or the bottom; but what’s in an article, whether it be indefinite or definite really matters very little. You see it really doesn’t matter because I heard now is a great time to buy! Don’t believe me? I heard it first hand from a real live real estate agent.

  6. Phil Hoover

    While I am careful to avoid the appearance of being a real estate cheerleader, I have been wondering if this might happen.
    In the Boise area, our short sale/REO inventory is pretty beat-up and you can’t get a short sale closed for months.
    Anyone who wants to buy and close (the people I work with) avoid them.
    Our listing inventory is tight and the nice homes that are closable deals are going quickly.
    It is increasingly difficult to find a sharp home that’s a closable deal here.

  7. Sully

    Phil:

    “It is increasingly difficult to find a sharp home that’s a closable deal here.”

    Is that because they are selling fast or is there another reason? I see that your area had a surge in unemployment to the same as this area. Wondering if the sales will continue with 13% unemployment.

  9. Cole Voors

    Interesting facts, keep up the good work!

  10. Steve Herschbach

    Sales of new U.S. homes tumble 16.9% to record low
    By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new single-family homes collapsed in February, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, as a combination of high unemployment, tumbling prices and a glut of cheaper alternatives brought activity to a near-standstill.

    New-home sales fell 16.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 in February, though January’s figures were revised higher to 301,000 from 284,000. Compared to February 2010, sales collapsed by 28%.

    Every region but the West saw record lows, and in the Northeast, sales dropped by 50% compared to year-earlier levels. Read “Dismal home-sales data tell us nothing new.”

    “The housing market has literally collapsed,” said Tony Sanders, a real estate finance professor at George Mason University. “We’re stuck, it’s not going to revive in the spring and may not in the summer.”

    FULL STORY http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=D5A64C62-554D-11E0-9FD2-00212804637C

  11. Zen

    What happens after years of pent-up first time buyers have bought, investors have invested, and there are still a ton of empty homes that need to be sold?

  12. Move to Reno

    Why would anyone want to buy a new house when there are plenty of slightly used houses around with more upgrades in established neighborhoods selling for far less than new houses? It’s call competition and it will last until the used inventory has been absorbed.

    The good news is that the recovery is starting to take hold and all those kids that have been staying with Mom and Pop can’t wait to move out on their own.

  13. Carlo

    “the recovery is starting to take hold”……

    in Nevada?

    And the evidence of that would be…..??

  14. Some Guy

    Evidence? Who needs evidence Carlo? Leave it to the trained professionals to indicate when the recovery will take hold. The Bernanke said it’s taking hold. Look at the stock market, it’s up! As long as you pay no attention to the fact that the so called “Plunge Protection Team” is dumping untold billions into the market to prop it up then everything is fine.
    Besides, if a little bit of inflation is good for an economy then a lot must be even better.

  16. trader joe

    you can watch the plunge protection team ppt just put up a 55 tick on the esm11…….then wait for ben to be on cnbc……… hits the ask with almost no retracements

  17. Ro Ju

    Has anybody looked at the Trulia sales data for Reno lately? For April 2011 the sales are down 88.9% y-o-y. How in hell can prices not collapse in the coming months? This is happening, albeit to a lesser extent, in many cities across the USA now. Hold your noses, because we are headed into a chasm. The USA is filled with lies from end to end.

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