Case-Shiller’s latest (February) home price indices have been released and the news isn’t necessarily good.
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites were down year over year (-2.6% and -3.3%, respectively) as well as month over month (-1.1%). Ten of the 11 cities that made new lows in January 2011 saw new lows again in February 2011.
From the Standard’s and Poor’s Case-Shiller press release …
"There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.
"Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February. The one exception, Detroit, is 30% below its 2000 price level. The 20-City Composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip. Fourteen MSAs and both Composites have continued to decline month-over-month for more than six consecutive months as of February.
"Atlanta, Cleveland and Las Vegas join Detroit as cities with home prices below their 2000 levels; and Phoenix is barely above its January 2000 level after a new index low.
See the Standard’s and Poor’s Case-Shiller press release here: Home Prices Edge Closer to 2009 Lows According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Ralston
I could swear the Shari Chase was quoted in our very own RGJ in 2005 that you could never lose money buying a house. That real estate always goes up.
And Case -Shiller is being kind to the condition of the LV real estate market by saying it is “below 2000” levels. Last month the median in LV was $113K. The last time the median in LV was at that point was 1990.
Shari must have meant to exclude Nevada. Maybe she was talking about properties in Paris.
lb_Reno
I would say we already hit ‘double dip’ .. In mid 2007 Diane Cohn looked at my house and said it would sell for 400-420k. I paid 217k in 2009 and I would probably be very lucky to get that for it now. And this is a 2100 sq ft Caughlin Ranch house (on the ghetto side of Mc Carren though) with very good views…oh well, that’s the breaks I’m sure this market collapse benefited plenty of banksters buy a few more million dollar yachts.
I never expected that housing prices wouldn’t drop, the prices were unsustainable given no wage increases, and the liar loans were just a disaster waiting to happen. I was just too stupid to realize how much they would drop and how fast. Every house I have ever owned I sort of projected an increase in value of 3% per year, and I always did better than that since I always do a lot of remodeling and upgrades. I just never dreamed that I would own one for 12 years and end up being unable to recover what I paid for it.
Cornell
There is no question that values have declined since 2009. Up to 15% in some neighborhoods. Just be happy, lb, that you did not buy in 2005. You would be 50%- 55% down.
Cornell
Also, lb, don’t beat yourself up for being ” just too stupid” to not have seen these price declines coming. NOBODY saw 50%-55% price declines coming. Because NOBODY has ever seen this in their lifetimes. Even the great original bears on this blog, like RI and BB, who maybe saw it before a lot of others, did not see 55% declines coming.
Gadfly
I have not always been BB’s biggest fan, but Cornell is wrong. BB envisioned the scale of the crash before most folks believed there could be a crash. As far back as at least 2007 (if not 2006), if memory serves, BB was on here warning readers that a crash to 1999 pricing (or lower) was inevitable. While we have a bit further to fall to reach 1999 pricing (although not much, as the December 1999 median was $155,000), we have definitely hit 2000 pricing.
As for RI, I do not recall if he ever made a prediction as to the exact scope of the crash, but I suspect he has not been altogether surprised at how far we have fallen. I, for one, did not believe we would ever see more than a 50% decline at the most (and other, such as MikeZ, pegged it 40%), even when 2008 made it clear to all (save a few fools, such as Derrick) that the crash was inevitible. So, it is accurate to claim that most of the bears here (and several of the now bulls) saw the crash coming, perhaps with more clarity than even learned economist, but did not appreciate the full scope; however, it is not accurate to make that claim concerning the beariest bear of us all.
bob_c
Real estate has lost $6 trillion peak to trough–household wealth just crushed.
And wtf—now we knowingly crush the dollar to save corporations and stoke inflation.
The average joe is screwed—stagflation in spades. I shudda bought silver!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gadfly
@bob_c,
Yep, it is ugly. For the last couple years I have believed that China would prop us up long enough for a modest recovery, as we are their largest single market and their economy is heavily export driven. However, with China making noise about selling off some (most?) of its US bonds, and with domestic commerce becoming a greater part of the Chinese GNP, I no longer believe this will happen.
lb_Reno
doh..I said I bought the house in 2009- make that 1999 sorry!
Cornell
Well lb, if you bought in 1999, you may still a have few bucks of appreciation left. Many neighborhoods are now back to 1999 levels. Not sure about CR on the ghetto side of McCarran.
MikeZ
No longer a hair away from the double dip … it’s now official.
http://tinyurl.com/3o7luzj
5 May 2011
National Home Prices Double Dip
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter
….