Our friends at First Centennial Title Company of Nevada have released their Market Condition Report for April.
From the April report:
"The level of demand relative to supply appears to be insufficient to maintain the current price level or to cause an increase."
- OVERVIEW: Both SFR and Condo supply are very constant in the current range, as they were the month before. This means that as properties are moved off the market by either becoming a sale pending or a failure, those properties are being replaced by new supply. At the same time, properties in escrow continue to build. This implies that the level of closed demand will be increasing in the near term. Prices continue very weak for both types. These declines are somewhat more pronounced than other areas surveyed.
- PERCENT SELLING: Very constant in the current range.
- MARKET SPEED INDEX: The market is moving slowly but the pace is increasing in small steps from month to month. Expect this continue. This increase will be difficult to discern at the street level in the short run.
- PRICES: SFR and Condo price schedules continue to weaken but the pace of decline has increased. SFR has become more pronounced in the short run. Prices are erratic from month to month and seem to gyrate in a narrow range (see History of Median Sale Price Graph). Note in the price graph that the tail end of the trend lines shows a definite decline.
WEEKS SUPPLY GIVEN DEMAND (ABSORPTION RATE): The absorption rate is on the decline indicating that the market is tightening slightly—more so for SFR than Condo. This tightening effect needs to continue for sustained time in order to affect the current trajectory of prices.
Click on the report below to enlarge.
The history of median sale price is finally reflecting reality.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/21022/still-home-sick
I gotta give FCT credit. The “upturn” they’ve consistently drawn on the median graph (the one Steve Herschbach was mocking last month) is gone! Personally, I think the line curving down is every bit as speculative as their consistently incorrect prediction of the past, but that’s what happens when you draw smooth lines through data.
But who knows: maybe this is a sign the market is turning around? After all, their predictions of what direction the median was going have been consistently wrong for the last 8 months or so… that’s a pretty solid track record!
Woweeee!!! I can’t believe all the Big Dogs asking a million dollars for their homes (bought at the peak) now worth half that according to Zillow. To me this is the big story around these parts. Who cares about the condo trash selling for four figures?
Huge haircuts are on order for thousands of holdouts trying to avoid their day of reckoning. Why do the realtors even take the listings at those unrealistic prices?
It’s insane. Rich people’s dreams die hard. Sooner or later the dam will break and the
flood will make the Mississippi look tame by comparison.