Veros Real Estate Solutions, a provider of property valuation tools and risk assessment to mortgage lenders, servicers, rating agencies and the investment community, has released its most current housing market forecast. The forecast, which is for the 12-month period ending September 1, 2012, indicates that there will not be a return to double-digit declines of the recent past in the housing market. See VeroFORECAST Predicts Less Rapid Decline of Housing Markets
The most recent VeroFORECAST™ indicates that some markets, such as Bismarck, North Dakota will see more than five percent appreciation over the next twelve months, while others will experience as much as five percent depreciation. Unfortunately, Reno/Sparks, Nevada falls into the latter group.
Projected Five Strongest Markets
- Bismarck, North Dakota 5.6%
- Honolulu, Hawaii 2.9%
- Fargo, North Dakota-Minnesota 2.0%
- Harrisburg/Carlisle, Pennsylvania 1.9%
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1.9%
Projected Five Weakest Markets
- Bakersfield, California -5.5%
- Reno/Sparks, Nevada -5.1%
- Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Florida -5.1%
- Las Vegas/Paradise, Nevada -5.0%
- Fresno, California -4.8%
Source: VeroFORECAST™
Transplant
Off topic, but I’m hoping y’all can help me find a comment thread on RRB a long ways back in which the likelihood of a short sale getting completed successfully broke down along the lines of: 15% below SS price = dicey, 10% below = good chance, 5% = all but certain. I’m still searching but no luck so far. Also, do the regulars and Guy and GreenNV here believe this formula still holds true today? Thanks in advance to all.
inclinejj
A buddy of mine has a short sale in escrow for 19 months and It probably will close right at the end of the year!!
BTW, has one of these market forecasts been right?
Grand Wazoo
What happened to the seller’s market?
🙂
yea right
Are these predictions only for median price or do they also account for $sq/ft? Couldn’t it be possible to have a declining median price while $ sq/ft stays flat or rises?
MikeZ
inclinejj: BTW, has one of these market forecasts been right?
https://renorealtyblog.wpengine.com/2010/12/reno-sparks-real-estate-to-see-7-depreciation-in-2011.html
That’s Veros in December 2010 predicting a 7% depreciation in Reno/Sparks in 2011. As of last month, Guy’s data shows -4.6% Jan-Sep and -7.3%. Feb-Sep, so last year’s forecast from Veros was pretty accurate.
Guy Johnson
Transplant, unfortunately I can’t recall the post or formula to which you refer. It would be useful if such a formula existed.
Grand Wazoo, I won’t post October numbers for about a week (I always have to allow a few days for the local agents to get their sales data inputted for the month), but so far it’s looking like we’ll see an increase in median sales price for October.
yea right, the projection is for median sales price only, not price per square foot. And, yes, it is possible to have a declining median price while $ sq/ft stays flat or rises. The converse is also possible.
MikeZ, thank you for verifying Veros’ previous projection.
Transplant
Thanks anyway, Guy. I finally gave up searching, but I stumbled across some other very useful info regarding short sales.