According to an annual forecast released yesterday by TransUnion, mortgage delinquencies are expected to decline by about 5 percent by the end of 2012. Specifically, mortgage delinquencies are expected to rise through Q1 2012 and then decline for the last three quarters of 2012.
Credit quality of new originations, consumer confidence and GDP are cited as factors that will positively influence homeowners’ ability and willingness to pay their mortgages.
Mortgage delinquencies forecasted to decline in 2012
[…] According to an annual forecast released yesterday by TransUnion, mortgage delinquencies are expected to decline by about 5 percent by the end of 2012. Specifically, mortgage delinquencies are expected to rise through Q1 2012 and then decline for the last … Continue reading → […]
Sandbank
“the Reno-Sparks area is experiencing more default and foreclosure activity…”
Nope. Not so thanks to AB 234. The market should be experiencing foreclosure activity so the market can finally get healthy, but thanks to the magnificient wisdom of AB 234, the market is now on an inedefinite hold in the getting healthy phase.
Who wants to go out and buy a house now knowing that thousands of foreclosures are piling up on hold which will turn into thousands of REOs in the coming 2-3 years?
MikeZ
re: AB234 -> foreclosure filings way down
Can someone help me understand how AB234 is responsible?
I just don’t see it; AB 234’s requirements are not that onerous, unless you’ve totally screwed the pooch and lost the real paperwork. Even then, it’s more formality and notary work than any permanent obstacle.
John
AB284
Sully
MikeZ, I don’t think AB 284 is as bad as some people are making it out to be, gov’t actions do tend to create opposing reactions and consumer confidence could fall off thus creating the scenario suggested by Sandbank.
I’m thinking AB 284 is just a speed bump, allowing time for the shadow inventory to finally get it’s due process. I haven’t noticed any unusual change in Mitch’s foreclosure list since Oct 1. When his list starts coming out shorter every day, then we can tell something is in the works.
However, I would be concerned if the statement that some title companies will not guarantee title becomes a reality. This by itself should change the speed bump to an outright road block.
Sully
Afterthought, maybe it was insure the title not guarantee it. At any rate, either one would be unacceptable and should be to any buyer.
Norton
There were 1,254 NODs recorded in August and September. Since October 1, the effective date of AB 284, the number of NODS recorded by an institutional lender (as opposed to a private party) is NONE. As in NOTHING. They are not just “way down”. They are nonexistent.
AB 284 must not have anything to do with it? It must be a total coincidence that since the effective date of the legislation the banks have recorded zero NODs? Purely a conincidence? It appears that as of October 1, all the banks just decided to stop all foreclosures for some reason known only to them?
MikeZ, if you don’t see that AB 284 has anything to do with it, what is your explanation for why all foreclosures stopped dead on October 1? If all AB 284 is about is a mere “formality” and “notary work” why, in your opinion, has it caused new foreclosures to grind to an absolute halt? Or, if you don’t think it has anything to do with AB 284, what happened as of October 1 to cause all new foreclosures to stop?
Thanks.
Cal
Looks to me like there have been only 32 NODs recorded since Oct 1. I see 3 of them having been filed by a bank. One each by BoA, Wells, and Heritage. Looking at the actual trust deed documents, it might be that these 3 loans were not sold by the originating banks, and remained in their own portfolio. Thus there would be no concern with the documentation and the “chain of ownership” (that is my own phrase for lack of a better one).
Obviously AB 284 has had a huge impact. With all due respect, what other possible explanation can there be for the halt in new foreclosures recordings since Oct 1? Could it be that, in MikeZ’s words, the banks have “screwed the pooch” and so mangled up the documentation that they cannot comply with the madates of the new law?
If that is the case, what then are the ramifications of that? Do people who are not paying their loan back get to live mortgage free forever because the banks cannot meet the requirements to foreclose?This seems to have some really major policy ramifications to me.
MikeZ
MikeZ, if you don’t see that AB 284 has anything to do with it, what is your explanation for why all foreclosures stopped dead on October 1?
I don’t know that it has caused it, only that the two are coincident, that’s why I’m asking for someone to explain how AB284 is the cause. Can you?
Matthew
I’ll cross-post from REReno:
The reason the new law is problematic is because mortgages don’t work that simply. In many cases the idea of “a bank” owning your mortgage is a fallacy in itself. They chop up and package the CDO in a variety of ways such that the idea of a single piece of paper proving the the bank “owns” it doesn’t make any sense. Furthermore, most banks are simply custodians of the mortgage and they collect fees and commissions for servicing the debt.
Furthermore, as Uncle Sam has facilitated the extensive merging of banks we have a very long and reaching system of bank subsidiaries. The new law prohibits foreclosing banks from using subsidiaries as their trustees.
Of course, it’s *possible* to unwind the tangle of paper but the question is whether or not the cost and effort are reasonable for the bank to do.
The new law was a non-solution to a non-problem. Our foreclosure problems aren’t caused (in any significant part) by banks illegally foreclosing on properties to which they have no right.
Does it happen? Sure. But now we have a sweeping law pretending to target a tiny symptom of the housing trouble which effectively impedes legal and otherwise due foreclosures from occurring.
Making the foreclosure more expensive for the bank just further screws the paying borrower and *increases* the moral hazard for the underwater homeowner.
Sully
Interesting article on foreclosure activity across U.S.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12152011_foreclosures_realty_trac.asp