A yesterday Forbes’ piece ranks Nevada as second (only to Texas) in annualized job growth over the next five years based on a recent report from Moody’s Analytics. See Texas tops the list of the best states for jobs – Companies are increasingly shunning union-shop states
From the story:
Nevada (No. 2) and the rest of the southwest remains an attractive spot for businesses thanks to low business costs relative to California, an abundance of land and its proximity to Mexico. Arizona (No. 3), New Mexico (No. 4) and Oklahoma (No. 8 ) all expect strong employment gains.
Forcasted 5-year annual job growth (and current unemployment rate):
- Texas 2.9% (8.5%)
- Nevada 2.9% (13.4%)
- Arizona 2.8% (2.4%)
- New Mexico 2.6% (6.6%)
- North Dakota 2.6% (3.5%)
- Utah 2.4% (7.4%)
- Florida 2.3% (10.6%)
- Oklahoma 2.3% (5.9%)
- Georgia 2.2% (10.3%)
- Oregon 2.2% (9.6%)
source: Moody’s Analytics
E.Edward
Its amazing the people forecasting these wild predictions don’t have any clue or comprehension of the real numbers ?
What was there? {52 single family dwelling} washoe county building permits issued for the whole year of 2011, Isn’t that down from the typical 1350 or-so for 2000 and 1300 from 2005 and so-on?
That’s only off from the typical by what 95%??
I’m sure Vegas in retrospect is much much worse!
How many will be losing there UI benefits just the first week alone in washoe county come January 1st…. 7-8000? Think there’s that many jobs out there available??
So instead of having 8-10 people in line for every one job out there your gonna have 15 or so?
My-self I don’t think I would be walking from this area…..I would be Running!
just my opinion.
Chester
More of the “Nevada is attractive as compared to California” drivel. It has been drivel for the past 30 years and it continues to be drivel. If there was $0.02 worth of merit to this argument that has been preached over the past 30 years, then all of the Silicon Valley tech companies would have moved to Nevada by now, the Holloywood entertainment industry would have relocated to Las Vegas by now, California would not have the largest state economy in the nation and the 8th largest economy in the world, and Nevada would not have the nation’s leading unemployment rate, the nation’s leading bankrupcty filings rate, and the nation’s leading home foreclosure rate. For 30 years California bussinesses have had the opportunity to leave California and come to Nevada and they have elected not to do so.
And please, spare me the references to 12 California companies that have moved to Nevada with a combined work force of 547 people over the past many years. They don’t amount to a wart on the ass of the California economy.
Gary
Gee, if Nevada’s job growth rate will be 2.9% a year (dubious) then in only 4 years we will be back to 3% unemployment.
So we’re looking at 4 years before we get back to a healthy job market?
I fail to see the good news here.
dirtbagger
Gott En Heimel! How can anyone have the gall to print such nonsense. Has it been so long that people have forgotten that this is the same company that rated mortgage backed securities AAA?
Trini
“and its proximity to Mexico”…….
So that Nevada can have an abundant supply of $8.00 an hour illegal workers to fill all the busboy and porter jobs that will fuel this 2.9% annual job growth?
Why would “proximity to Mexico” even be mentioned?
Steve Watts
It’s not the number of jobs so much that will lift the housing market, it’s the quality of the jobs. Notice the top 4 states, including us, have a lower than national average wage. Its the way of the world.
Tom
This prediction seems to me to anticipate many new `low-end’ jobs. A high national ranking for job growth, albeit in a lower wage sector, is understandable for a state with an economy based largely upon the resort hospitality industry and the warehousing-distribution business. Such a state would rank high on that scale because it has a pre-existing foundation for job growth in that category. This seems to me to equate with increased future demand for rental apartments and low-priced home rentals, more than it would affect home purchases. So I think this projection may mean that rents will increase, and that there also may be less time-on-the-market for listings of very modest priced houses. I don’t think this projection will necessarily affect mid-level or higher priced housing, however.
Sully
On surface this looks like much needed good news, however as dirtbagger mentioned – this is the same company that rated mortgage backed securities AAA. So a company that has roughly the same credibility of Congress (single digits) is to be trusted?
I realize that a stopped clock is right twice a day and a blind squirrel will find a nut now and then. I guess the only prediction left is for Bernanke to say the foreclosure crisis is under control. 🙂
MikeZ
I agree with the report; I think Nevada is positioned very well for future job growth when the economic upturn eventually happens.
Raymond
Sully, that would go with Mr. Bernanke’s famous “subprime is contained”quote.
And to Tom, what a nice way of saying that Nevada’s future job growth (assuming there will be any in the short term) will be in low wage, unskilled, uneducated, entry level dead end jobs in the gaming and warehouse industries. Unfortunately for our State, I believe you are absolutely correct.
Ralston
I sure hope the Nevada educational system can keep up with the demand for all the high school dropouts that will be needed to fill all the forklift operator and casino porter jobs that will be created when the upturn in the economy happens and Nevada’s two great industries roar back to life.
MikeZ
the forklift operator and casino porter jobs
There’s nothing wrong with being bearish, but first, make sure you have your facts right: http://tinyurl.com/8yfykr8 … even in this downturn, as bad as it’s been, and it’s been bad, there’s been growth (the majority of job growth, in fact) in Professional and Business services.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but no one is entitled to their own facts.
MikeZ
Whoops, pasted wrong tinyurl.
http://tinyurl.com/7kyz55o is for 2011.
Sully
I’m still waiting for the liberal whiner that feels we need to increase taxes to pay for desperately needed education. Failing to mention in the process that more taxes are first needed to pay for underfunded public pensions that are so deserved by the highly educated public workforce that seems to need to be called heros every time they show up for work.
downtownjunkie
“for a state with an economy based largely upon the resort hospitality industry and the warehousing-distribution business.”
Tom, you are absolutely correct. I remember about 8 years ago when the powers that be (the casinos, redevelopment agency, etc.) sold the Reno/”Tahoe” area on two things:
1. That Reno is a perfect “western distribution hub” with a favorable business tax climate.
2. That Reno offered a great place for Californians to retire, based again on a favorable income tax climate.
While both of these points were/are true, it was so short-sighted! What do you think these warehouse and service jobs pay? Maybe $12-17 per hour tops.
Sully- I don’t consider myself a liberal and I agree on your point of view. The inefficiency/bloat of the local government and education system is just plain sickening. BUT if Reno ever wants to dig itself out of this warehouse/service-based hole, it has to be through a better upper education program. Reno has the location. It just needs a higher skilled workforce.
Sully
junkie – let me clarify my statement a bit. In 1965 I applied for a job in Milpitas, CA as a surveyor II, basically it went Civil Engineer – surveyor I – surveyor II. It was a bonehead entry level job. Job description was basically you were a grunt for the civil engineer – or the guy that holds the pole while the engineer looks through the level.
Education – H.S. diploma, with algebra and geometry. Today the same or similar job, as I could no longer find surveyor II, would be junior civil engineer (4 yr degree). What changed? Well, for one there were no public unions in 1965. Since I couldn’t find a listing for surveyor II in the Milpitas job listings, I assume the junior civil engineer is the new grunt.
So who decided it was necessary for the taxpayers to now pay for a civil engineer to do the job a HS grad could do 1965. Trust me when I say this, holding the damn pole has not changed any in 45 years.
Public unions have nothing to sell and can only take. By filling their membership with college grads, they get the bargaining power of an educated work force. However, the taxpayer gets the shaft for having to pay an engineer to do a job a HS grad could do. By now, of course, the junior engineer probably does more than a surveyor II, but probably because the civil engineer is too lazy to do it.
In the meantime, education suffers because the taxpayer won’t willing pass tax hikes to fund education. Whoa – what happened to the money they were getting before? Didn’t you read above – we now have to pay for a civil engineer to do the job of a HS grad and we didn’t have the money so it came out of school supplies. Multiply this several times over in every city, county and state agency and it adds up.
I have no problem paying more taxes for education, as soon as I see them hiring HS grads to do the job that overpaid, over educated engineers are doing. Do this across the board in every govt department and before you know it education will be getting all the money it needs.
CommercialLender
Sully,
Not only are you right, but you’ve described what we are facing now: deflation. Long time readers of this blog will now roll their eyes that CL is saying we are going through DE and not IN flation, but he’s frankly correct. Jobs that were paying $X are now paying less than $X, but the problem is not today’s “less than $X” compensation, it is yesterday’s “$X”. He says what we had become accustomed to, $X, was actually the problem, and now we are normalizing. Despite the profligate spending of the USA and drunken policies of the Fed both attempting to support yesteday’s “$X”, we are actually still in a macro de-flationary cycle mandating today’s “less than $X”. Nevermind Europe. Reno jobs at $10/hr will not suddenly become $20/hr, so homes based upon yesterday’s $20/hr have been forced to become homes priced as if buyers make $10/hr.
Those long time readers have read diatribes on inflation, which will come one day (!), but for now its still a deflationary cycle, at least with Europe and lack of jobs.
geopower
CL,
If wages and home values were the only factors in assessing monetary policy, you’re right we’d be going through deflation right now. But while the price of groceries, gas, cars, building materials, and all the other things we purchase are holding strong or rising, it’s hard to argue that we are going through a macro deflationary cycle. The real estate market is not the same as the whole economy, or we could all live just as comfortably on our lower wages as we were before.
downtownjunkie
Sully – we seem to both be in agreement that there is a huge structural problem here. My question is what happens when the surveyor I and surveyor II types of jobs no longer exist? Over the last 15 years, technology (SAS, cloud computing, automation, etc) has literally gutted the private sector of any stable paying jobs for individuals with less than a college degree. We are now seeing this trend in the healthcare industry (and a little in edu).
This will happen to the public sector as well. Maybe not right now, as it’s pretty much a large part of propping up unemployment/welfare at the moment, but at some point in the near future. An educated workforce is where the money goes…
Case in point: where do you think the “distribution hub” jobs will be in the next few years? Check these guys out – kivasystems.com
CL – long time since I’ve seen you lurking!
Sully
junkie – I think you are being far too general. For one the need for someone to hold the proverbial pole is still there and college is still not a requirement. At some point GPS systems will dominate surveying. Maybe even robots. However, I think that’s a bit into the future.
When you say stable paying jobs which ones are you referring to? Currently, I still see the need for plumbers, electricians, carpenters, cement masons, operating engineers, etc.
Maybe not as many as they needed in 2004, but these jobs still do not require college degrees. On the other hand I don’t see the need for a librarian with a degree stationed at every library in the county. As a matter of fact I’m not sure that more than the head county librarian needs a degree. Many of these govt jobs really do not have a need for college degrees. Yet, I’ve seen time and again a degree requirement for govt jobs that really wasn’t necessary.
BTW, next time your toilet stops up – try using cloud to unplug it. 🙂
As far as the distribution hub goes, I’ve heard that Elko is building a hub that is to be cheaper and compete directly with the one here. So maybe they can just convert all the warehouses into casinos and have a race to see who gets to bankruptcy court first.
downtownjunkie
I may be a bit forward looking and you’re right about certain jobs that will always be in demand – although I think the demand for plumbers, electricians, carpenters and cement masons has waned a bit.
Just for good measure on your cloud toilet: http://www.plumbingsupply.com/remote-controlled-water-shutoff-system.html
It’s a joke, Sully!
While this is slightly off topic, anyone interested in a good read: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Securities/Insight/2011/12_-_December/MF_Global_and_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/
And we thought the real estate mess was bad:)
Thanks for keeping up the blog, Guy! It has been a little slow but it’s always nice to keep updated.
Guy Johnson
Arizona-based Fusion Contact Centers plans to open a new support center in downtown Reno and hire 180 employees starting in January. See: Fusion to open service center, hire 180 in downtown Reno
After looking at twelve sites Fusion cited worker availability as a key reason for the company’s decision to place its newest center in Reno.
Pondering
I know somebody who works for this outfit in Santa Maria, CA. They basically run a phone bank. $12.00 a hour jobs, and new hires have to go to class to “learn proper grammar.” Sully will be happy to know that they do not require a college degree to snag one of their $12.00 an hour positions.
Martin
Cool! 180 $12 an hour jobs! No wonder the Mayor, the Governor, and the head of the Chamber of Commerce are gaga over this development.
I’m sure any day now we will hear that if two workers at this place combine their annual income (assuming they can get on full time) they can afford one of Reno’s $150K median priced houses. Heck, if all 180 combine their income with a co-worker, they could all together buy 90 $150K houses. Especially if they buy a house out in the country and get one of those nothing down agriculture loans.
There’s never been a better time to buy. Better buy now or get priced out forever.
MikeZ
Hear, hear, Sully. Totally agree with you re: unions, nothing to give, only to take. It wasn’t always that way, but that’s where they/we are now.
Carney
Yep, Martin, so true. A business comes to town paying $24,000 a year for full time work and the politicians fall all over themselves in delight.
This is exactly what Tom, and others, were talking about regarding the kind of low wage unskilled jobs that will do nothing to help out the housing market and little to help out the struggling job market.
Sully
Pondering, you apparently missed my point completely. While the jobs I mentioned might start out at $12 for a first year apprentice, they certainly pay a lot more at journeyman level and are in absolutely no danger of being sent offshore. Whereas the phone bank you mentioned is probably already being scheduled to move to India.