February median sold price, units, DOM, $/sq.ft.

Agent Insights by Guy Johnson

Rebound! February’s median sold price jumped 7.4 percent over January’s $135,000 to return to $145,000. This 7.4 percent increase follows the 12.9 percent fall we saw in January. Volatility is the word of the day. Year-over-year, February’s median sold price is down 9.9 percent.

February’s median sold price per square foot (ppsf) also increased – rising 1.6 percent to $82.12/sf. Sold PPSF is down 12 percent year-over-year.

The number of houses sold in February set another month-specific record. February’s 453 units sold eclipsed the number of houses sold in any other February on record. The increase sales activity, in conjunction with less properties entering the market, has wreaked havoc with inventory levels. At the moment there are only 980 houses listed as Active on the MLS. By itself this number may not mean much, but when looked at alongside the number of monthly sales, one can see that our market is operating with roughly only a two-month supply of inventory. 980 Active for-sale properties is also noteworthy in that this number is lower than the inventory levels the market experienced during the peak of the buying frenzy during the bubble years.

I first brought the dwindling inventory point to light in October – see Looming inventory problem in Reno-Sparks? At that time, the months supply of inventory was at 3.7 months. It is now at 2.2 months. Folks, we’re in a Seller’s market. Of course, the lack of inventory is not seen across all price points, but at and around the median sold price there is shortage of available Active listings. This thin supply is being manifested as multiple offers scenarios, offers over asking price, lower days on market, and higher incidence of cash offers (see Cash is King – more than ever).

Speaking Days on Market (DOM), I see that our MLS has added a new metric to the search results – median days on market. Regular readers know that the DOM number I report has always been an average, rather than a median. That’s because average DOM was the only metric available to me. Not so any longer. I have updated the table below with median DOM going back about a year. I will fill out the remainder of the historical data when I have more time. I have also left the average DOM in place as a comparison to the median DOM. Going forward, I think I will use only the median DOM. This will be consistent with my use of the medians for the other metrics on which I report. Let me know your thoughts on this?

So, looking at the median DOM for February we can see that the trend has certainly been toward shorter times on the market. This is because many of the properties hitting the market are going pending almost immediately – or at least as soon as the Seller chooses which offer to select. February’s median DOM of 99 days is more than two weeks shorter than February 2011’s median DOM of 115 days.

February sales by type break out as follows:

  • REO sale: 42% – up from January’s 40%
  • Short sales: 28% – down from January’s 37%
  • Equity sales: 29% – UP from January’s 22%

Another effect from the low inventory level is that non-distressed home sellers are experiencing greater interest in their for-sale properties – as can be seen in the increase in “equity sales”.

February sales by price band break out as follows in the table below. Note that nearly a quarter of the houses sold in February sold for less than $100,000; 76% sold for less than $200,000; and 92% sold for less than $300,000.

sales price ($000’s) units sold
0 – 99 100
100 – 199 241
200 – 299 74
300 – 399 17
400 – 499 7
500 – 599 7
600 – 699 2
700 – 799 1
800 – 899 2
900 – 999 1
1M+ 1
total 453

For those readers who prefer the median sold price for houses and condos combined, February’s 518 sold houses, condos and town homes exhibited a combined median sold price of $132,750 – UP 6.2 percent from January’s combined median of $125,000 for 518 combined sales.

Historical data follows:

Month Year # Sold Sold Price Sold Price per Sq Ft Avg/Med DOM # of Actives # of Pendings
Feb 2012 453 $145,000 $82.12 132 / 99 980 1,788
Jan 2012 446 $135,000 $80.80 144 / 122 1,170 1,643
Dec 2011 534 $155,000 $85.66 148 / 123 1,403 1,481
Nov 2011 495 $149,012 $85.02 146 / 114 1,545 1,635
Oct 2011 496 $148,250 $84.22 145 / 106 1,682 1,646
Sep 2011 575 $149,000 $83.73 133 / 106 2,044 1,967
Aug 2011 554 $154,000 $91.34 125 / 98 1,947 1,694
July 2011 512 $149,950 $87.65 128 / 96 2,028 1,667
June 2011 538 $154,000 $90.12 123 / 89 1,990 1,689
May 2011 510 $150,000 $88.66 133 / 104 1,968 1,682
Apr 2011 436 $156,125 $89.78 137 / 104 1,914 1,593
Mar 2011 511 $160,000 $91.59 132 /113 1,906 1,497
Feb 2011 387 $161,000 $93.35 142 / 115 1,882 1,416
Jan 2011 365 $157,000 $92.35 152 / 129 1,970 1,329
Dec 2010 485 $165,000 $94.31 143 2,021 1,148
Nov 2010 398 $170,000 $96.43 139 2,060 1,376
Oct 2010 418 $174,950 $98.57 135 2,146 1,371
Sep 2010 467 $168,000 $97.52 132 2,186 1,473
Aug 2010 450 $180,000 $97.54 127 2,222 1,513
Jul 2010 415 $180,000 $101.84 128 2,158 1,580
Jun 2010 602 $170,000 $100.52 145 1,966 1,625
May 2010 450 $175,807 $102.37 138
Apr 2010 510 $179,995 $103.13 128
Mar 2010 477 $175,000 $99.14 141
Feb 2010 338 $170,000 $101.68 138
Jan 2010 346 $167,000 $97.06 134
Dec 2009 424 $178,000 $101.28 126
Nov 2009 461 $175,000 $103.61 112
Oct 2009 561 $180,000 $103.52 123
Sep 2009 520 $185,948 $103.31 128
Aug 2009 482 $179,900 $102.64 116
Jul 2009 515 $180,000 $103.45 126
Jun 2009 536 $180,317 $104.09 136
May 2009 426 $175,000 $102.29 139
Apr 2009 429 $190,000 $105.71 133
Mar 2009 369 $200,000 $105.85 133
Feb 2009 293 $205,000 $111.52 132
Jan 2009 233 $200,000 $113.04 117
Dec 2008 294 $218,950 $121.74 145
Nov 2008 269 $220,000 $122.24 152
Oct 2008 354 $230,000 $131.43 144
Sep 2008 358 $239,250 $136.72 145
Aug 2008 321 $250,000 $142.14 140
Jul 2008 397 $251,000 $145.48 139
Jun 2008 369 $262,500 $148.05 142
May 2008 314 $260,215 $152.30 134
Apr 2008 314 $275,000 $154.05 172
Mar 2008 238 $274,000 $150.93 166
Feb 2008 195 $289,000 $156.48 149
Jan 2008 165 $285,000 $170.23 146
Dec2007 228 $283,950 $167.22 143
Nov2007 204 $299,750 $172.24 126
Oct2007 241 $296,000 $173.55 116
Sep2007 230 $299,945 $179.46 114
Aug2007 311 $305,000 $182.49 118
Jul2007 300 $315,000 $189.78 113
Jun2007 329 $320,000 $196.78 104
May2007 364 $313,200 $190.81 107
Apr2007 320 $309,500 $193.93 121
Mar2007 324 $315,000 $189.61 121
Feb 2007 269 $315,000 $191.18 126
Jan 2007 245 $312,900 $199.79 133
Dec2006 291 $309,000 $193.51 114
Nov2006 281 $318,000 $197.32 111
Oct 2006 363 $312,400 $201.44 105
Sep2006 344 $314,950 $198.08 98
Aug2006 349 $325,000 $210.92 94
Jul2006 373 $335,000 $210.62 93
Jun2006 424 $339,000 $214.54 91
May2006 374 $339,950 $219.05 99
Apr2006 368 $334,600 $212.08 88
Mar2006 387 $340,000 $215.54 99
Feb 2006 283 $335,000 $217.29 101
Jan 2006 274 $365,000 $216.38 98
Dec2005 333 $355,000 $217.31 89
Nov2005 385 $349,000 $220.00 81
Oct2005 484 $359,450 $223.06 77
Sep2005 531 $354,500 $219.26 77
Aug2005 582 $360,500 $220.52 73
Jul2005 608 $353,000 $218.99 71
Jun2005 679 $350,000 $215.69 69
May2005 644 $333,250 $209.95 68
Apr2005 558 $326,750 $207.57 77
Mar2005 584 $325,000 $200.17 81
Feb 2005 342 $318,500 $197.54 88
Jan 2005 341 $310,000 $195.19 85
Dec2004 450 $312,500 $190.72 77
Nov2004 448 $309,950 $191.62 63
Oct2004 512 $299,250 $188.72 53
Sep2004 496 $292,750 $185.78 61
Aug2004 505 $285,000 $182.95 56
Jul2004 544 $304,300 $179.28 61
Jun2004 533 $285,000 $172.16 65
May2004 476 $278,750 $169.64 65
Apr2004 526 $259,950 $158.08 67
Mar2004 508 $245,000 $142.56 71
Feb 2004 365 $237,000 unavailable 81
Jan 2004 380 $228,500 unavailable 78
Dec2003 441 $240,000 unavailable 82
Nov2003 444 $220,750 unavailable 78
Oct2003 430 $219,880 unavailable 76
Sep2003 587 $223,000 unavailable 71
Aug2003 512 $220,000 unavailable 75
Jul2003 533 $210,000 unavailable 77
Jun2003 475 $207,000 unavailable 77
May2003 450 $198,950 unavailable 85
Apr2003 478 $197,750 unavailable 82
Mar 2003 428 $192,000 unavailable 77
Feb 2003 321 $186,895 unavailable 79
Jan 2003 316 $186,000 unavailable 96
Dec 2002 379 $193,500 unavailable 93
Nov 2002 423 $190,000 unavailable 82
Oct 2002 483 $189,900 unavailable 83
Sep 2002 410 $174,000 unavailable 85
Aug 2002 459 $180,000 unavailable 74
Jul 2002 469 $176,000 unavailable 83
Jun 2002 445 $185,000 unavailable 80
May 2002 470 $178,450 unavailable 77
Apr 2002 360 $169,500 unavailable 93
Mar 2002 377 $169,000 unavailable 84
Feb 2002 323 $170,900 unavailable 89
Jan 2002 269 $172,475 unavailable 99
Dec 2001 287 $182,000 unavailable 86
Nov 2001 323 $161,500 unavailable 85
Oct 2001 357 $166,500 unavailable 79
Sep 2001 355 $168,000 unavailable 81
Aug 2001 448 $160,350 unavailable 84
Jul 2001 433 $169,900 unavailable 90
Jun 2001 426 $166,225 unavailable 96
May 2001 404 $162,050 unavailable 97
Apr 2001 370 $158,750 unavailable 94
Mar 2001 385 $159,900 unavailable 97
Feb 2001 297 $159,950 unavailable 104
Jan 2001 264 $165,000 unavailable 102
Dec 2000 272 $156,500 unavailable 100
Nov 2000 355 $154,500 unavailable 93
Oct 2000 348 $153,000 unavailable 98
Sep 2000 356 $160,000 unavailable 104
Aug 2000 412 $163,375 unavailable 94
Jul 2000 368 $155,000 unavailable 110
Jun 2000 466 $165,845 unavailable 104
May 2000 363 $158,000 unavailable 105
Apr 2000 312 $155,000 unavailable 113
Mar 2000 339 $162,700 unavailable 102
Feb 2000 248 $148,000 unavailable 108
Jan 2000 223 $156,000 unavailable 113
Dec 1999 264 $155,000 unavailable 118
Nov 1999 293 $149,900 unavailable 98
Oct 1999 289 $147,895 unavailable 108
Sep 1999 311 $157,000 unavailable 106
Aug 1999 360 $148,500 unavailable 112
Jul 1999 375 $147,800 unavailable 105
Jun 1999 372 $150,000 unavailable 103
May 1999 307 $145,500 unavailable 106
Apr 1999 324 $151,700 unavailable 111
Mar 1999 308 $151,000 unavailable 121
Feb 1999 249 $148,900 unavailable 120
Jan 1999 210 $143,000 unavailable 115
Dec 1998 265 $140,000 unavailable 118
Nov 1998 280 $152,800 unavailable 126
Oct 1998 286 $142,825 unavailable 115
Sep 1998 279 $144,500 unavailable 102
Aug 1998 331 $145,000 unavailable 113
Jul 1998 335 $150,000 unavailable 108
Jun 1998 351 $148,500 unavailable 103
May 1998 302 $145,500 unavailable 99
Apr 1998 237 $148,000 unavailable 110
Mar 1998 271 $141,990 unavailable 115
Feb 1998 204 $139,000 unavailable 125
Jan 1998 167 $147,000 unavailable 129

Note: The medians table above is updated on a monthly basis. The median home price data reported covers the cities of Reno, Nevada and Sparks, Nevada [NNRMLS Area #100]. Residential data includes Site/Stick Built properties only. Data excludes Condo/Townhouse, Manufactured/Modular and Shared Ownership properties. Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional MLS – March 2012. Note: This information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Related post: January median sold price, units, DOM, $/sq.ft.

81 comments

  1. Reno Ignoramus

    Guy, can you give us the breakdown, by price band, of the asking prices for those 980 active listings? That would be very useful info. I would like to see what the current inventory looks like in terms of the asking pricing structure.
    Thanks Guy.

  2. Raymond

    With all due respect, Guy, it is absurd to say that we are in a seller’s market if we look at the market in its entirety. We are in a seller’s market for houses at the median, around $150K. Beyond that, this is anything but a seller’s market. For houses above $300K, we are in an absolute drought. Only 8% af all sales last month were for more than $300K. Hell, only 25% of all sales were for more than $200K.

  3. ALPS

    Funny how for all the shortage of inventory, and all the bidding wars, and all the cash drenched buyers competing with each other in this seller’s market, YoY the median is down 10%.
    Funny.

  4. Tim

    Raymond,
    There is little activity above $300k, and there likely won’t be for a very long time. That does not mean that the market as a whole is not showing signs of improvement. Yes, there is still huge shadow inventory, but the high number of sales/month, combined with the higher median is a good sign. There won’t be a healthy market above $1M for a few decades, either. But that doesn’t mean the market as a whole cannot improve.

    Like in 1999 with the Nasdaq, or in 2006 with housing, everyone was a permabull — at the exact worst time to be invested in either. Now, in housing, everyone is a permabear. Is it the worst time to buy (or a good one)?

    I predict no V-shaped recovery, but the risk of buying now is about as low as it has been in the last 10 years. Seller’s market/buyer’s market, it don’t matter. If you find a good house that you like and you can afford the payment, it ain’t a bad time to buy.

  5. joey

    ALPS,
    Lower prices are the solution, not the problem. Volume is likely up BECAUSE of the lower prices. That ain’t necessarily a bad thing.

  6. Norton

    The market “as a whole” is NOT showing improvement. The market “as a whole” is down 10% YoY in price. I know that sometimes facts get in the way of broad generalizations.

  7. Guy Johnson

    Sure thing, R.I.

    Unbelievably, those 980 Active listings I spoke of just three hours ago, are now down to 968. Twelve more properties went pending – that’s four/hour.

    Here’s your breakdown…
    0-490K: 8
    50K – 99K: 78
    100K – 149K: 134
    150K – 199K: 133
    200K – 249K: 134
    250K – 299K: 84
    300K – 349K: 54
    350K – 400K: 66
    400K – 499K: 60
    500K – 599K: 42
    600K – 699K: 27
    700K – 799K: 23
    800K – 899K: 21
    900K – 999K: 15
    1M+: 89

  8. ALPS

    joey, I could not agree with you more that lower prices are the solution. I’m in total accord with you. My point was what with all the hype about no inventory, and bidding wars, and cash drenched buyers, one would have thought that we had a very lit up market, which clearly we do not. Lit up markets do not drop 10% in value a
    year. What we have is a market that has lit up activity at a very narrow price point, around $150K. Beyond that, the market is decidely not lit up.

  9. Reno Ignoramus

    Thanks Guy for that info. Very helpful. Very interesting. I think we are about to learn something quite interesting over the next several months. That is, what will happen when all the $150K, more or less, houses are gone? Will buyers be willing to pay more? Or, will buyers not be able to pay more?
    Much has been made, rightly so, over the past several months about all the investors in the market buying up houses to rent. At some point, houses become too expensive to purchase as a rental. At what point is that? Is it fair to say that when we reach that point, the investors will diminish as a force in the market? Then all that will be left are people who want to buy a house to live in. What can these buyers afford and what can they qualify for? And, ultimatley, what will they be willing, and able, to pay?
    Interesting times on the horizon now.

  10. E.Edward

    Its a Miracle,

    Yep inventory is drying up, Prices are on there way back up, Next thing you know the speculative builder will be back in droves!

    Better get out there and do battle on those 200 or so Bank Owned listings… .. Up that offer….. LOL

    Hurry your missing the boat!

    Of course there will be that small problem of the tidal-wave of choked-off looming inventory an when all said and done will be counted in the thousands!

    Are these people ever gonna learn??
    ab284=moratorium=more nod’s=more foreclosures=lower prices= more long term pain!

  11. Martin

    It does not matter how low the $15o,000 inventory goes. It can even disappear. A total lack of $150,000 inventory will not turn a $150,000 buyer into a $200,000 buyer. If 150 is all he can pay, then 150 is all he can pay.
    The only way the 150 buyer is going to support the market once we run out of 150 houses is if we bring back the nothing down, interest only, neg-am, no-doc liar loan. Sure, if we start handing out $400,000 loans to keno runners again, the sky is the limit!!
    Where have you gone WaMu, and Country Wide, and Ameriquest? The realtors turn their lonley eyes to you.

  12. Twister

    With all the negative sentiment out there, its like the mirror image of 2006…..a change has come.

  13. Joe

    Why is it assumed by so many that everyone buying a house is borrowing the max that the bank will lend them? Am I the only one that knows of 150k recent buyers who could have been 200k buyers? and that would’ve been had there been no 150k homes they liked.

  14. Rubiconer

    Hell, if sales continue at 453 a month, there will be no houses at all on the MLS by the second week of May. None. Zippo. That’s what Guy suggests when he tells us there is only 2.2 months of inventory in the entire market. Which means all the $1 million and over houses will be gone too. So I guess we all ought to expect to see about a 400% increase in the median over the next 75 days.
    Some might detect something of a flaw in that suggestion, but don’t want to be negativo.

  15. Don

    Actually, if houses are disappearing from the MLS at the rate of 4 an hour as Guy says in his response to RI, then we will be completely out of houses in about a month. All those high end sellers, who have had their house on the market for the last 3 years, without even having any lookers, are finally going to get buyers, in the next 30 days, as people realize that they better buy now because by April 15, there will not be a single house available in Reno and Sparks. What a great time to be a seller of a $500,000 house!

  16. ToddR

    The house across the street from me has been on the market at $225K for 18 months. The owner is going to wet his pants when he realizes that every remaining house in Reno will be purchased in the next 30-60 days. Really amazing to see a market where price is no object.

  17. booch221

    One swallow doesn’t make a summer…

  18. Sully

    A cold winter!

    It was autumn, and the Red Indians asked their New Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn’t tell what the weather was going to be.

    Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his Tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

    But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked ‘Is the coming winter going to be cold?’ ‘It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,’ the weather man responded.

    So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more Wood. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. ‘Is it going to be a very cold winter?’ ‘Yes,’ the man at National Weather Service again replied, ‘It’s definitely going to be a very cold winter.’

    The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. ‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?’ ‘Absolutely,’ The man replied. ‘It’s going to be one of the coldest winters ever.’

    ‘How can you be so sure?’ the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, ‘The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy.’

    This is how the markets work!!! 🙂

  19. Twister

    Boy that Sully is funny and a lot of free time on his hands! Native Americans are pretty smart about the natural world…doubt they need a weatherman to tell them which way the winds about to blow.

  20. Matthew

    Sure, it’s a seller’s market if you want to sell your property for half of what you paid for it…

  21. Mashed Potatos

    If you bought your house in 2006, you can sell it for 35-40% of what you paid for it depending upon where it is located.
    Unless it is a condominium, then, depending upon where it is located, you can sell it for about 25% of what you paid for it.

    Remember it was the realtors who said you can’t ever lose money buying a propoerty in Reno.

  22. Carol

    Is there anybody left who bought a house in 2006 who still owns it? Those are the people who owe $450,ooo on their $200,000 house. Haven’t most of them just walked away by now? Why continue to pay when the house will NEVER be worth what is owed on it?
    Why not just stop making the payments and wait for the sheriff to evict you after the foreclosure? Oh wait! The banks cannot foreclose now because of AB284! On second thought, let’s just continue to live here for free for 2-3 years until this AB thingee gets worked out.
    Anybody who thinks this market is on the verge of getting healthy is delusional.

  23. SMM

    I know plenty of people who bought at or near the peak of the market and still live in their house. It’s called a moral obligation to pay the debt that you signed up to repay. Luckily with HARP 2.0 right around the corner and the LTV requirement lifted those of us that have tried to do the right thing will finally be rewarded with a lower rate/payment.

  24. Matthew

    SMM you have no moral obligation. A mortgage is a contract.
    It has been an option from day one to stop paying, lose your investment and give up the asset.
    This works as long as people have skin in the game… when we expanded things like 0% down (which is still going on!) this balance got turned on its head..

    The only moral failing is to stop paying *and* to insist that you should be able to stay in your home or that banks should be compelled to renegotiate with you.
    Likewise, when things like AB284 prevent the legal and contractual response of a default we are open for even more abuse.

  25. Matthew

    RI, people seem to be biting on that… I put in a cash offer last week on an REO and I got the “multiple offers, highest and best!” line from the listing agent.
    The townhouse was listed at $65,000 and the “highest and best” offers topped $80,000

    There are plenty of fish in the sea, but people are still getting loans with no money down so….
    I’m looking into purchasing at the courthouse steps… this “highest and best” bidding war on REOs is a waste of time.

  26. Tim

    Considering the source, I think people ought to sit up and read RI’s last. It’d be tantamount to the Bantering Bear saying the same thing. For those newbies out there, it was RI and BB screaming to the masses at the top of the bubble that …. it was a bubble.

    I agree with the spirit of what RI is saying, if not the magnitude. While I do see appreciation over the next 10 years, I’d put it more at 1-3% per annum than 10%.

    Still, something to consider. I think real estate in Reno is cheap. People are out there making money, and probably don’t have time (or desire) to contribute to this blog.

  27. SMM

    Sure…if you want to mangle your credit. Not worth it on an 800+ FICO and a house and neighborhood we like. I might rent it out, but not walking.

  28. Matthew

    SMM… I have good credit too and I understand what you’re saying about not wanting to mangle your score… but that’s not a moral obligation.
    We’re in this situation *not* because people with 800’s were living in long-term homes but because people with 600’s were getting Uncle-Sam loans.

    Now that loan volume has decreased I keep hearing about these “greedy bankers” not wanting to make loans… so it’s only a matter of time before the next round of credit interventions.

  29. Reno Ignoramus

    Nice try, Matthew, or Tim, or whoever.
    To all the readers of this blog:
    Please know that somebody, at 2:58 pm today, posted under my name to the effect that I think it is now time to buy. I think that long time readers of this blog would know that I would never start out a post with something as inane and stupid as “Ok boys and girls”.
    Nor would I ever make the equally stupid and inane suggestion that real estate is going to return 10% a year over the next 10 years.

  30. SMM

    Ahh, fair enough…I’ll rescind the “moral” obligation statement. However, I think you see my point.

  31. Matthew

    RI, lol what?
    I *did* think that post was a bit out of character for you!

    Nonetheless, there is smart money to be made, but I don’t buy into Guy’s “seller’s market” opinion.

  32. E.Edward

    Well there’s good news here and bad.

    If your a delinquent loan, your probably rent free for the next 18 months+ { all hail the welfare regime.} Yes there’s probably never been a better time to stop making that payment on that underwater mortgage!
    However, If you were hoping to buy a home, well your probably going to have to pay more for now!

  33. Tim

    You know what, I feel really stupid. I, too, fell for the imposter posing as RI. Anybody who has read RI’s many comments over the years could tell he doesn’t talk in such ways as “I’m not kidding” and “that’s my prediction” and “I really mean it”.
    Sorry RI, and while I think the market may be nearing a bottom, I too agree that Guy’s “seller’s market” is just realtor spin.

  34. Tim

    Great,
    Now somebody used my name to post at 1232 a.m. I did not write that. And at certain price levels, it is a seller’s market. Do we need the RRB Police to start verifying emails?

  35. Move to Reno

    The new Nevada law has put a cork in the foreclosure pipeline but that doesn’t mean that when the NODs start flowing again that prices will drop. The national economy is recovering and after 5 years of barely any new construction AND a lot of housing stock bought by investors for rentals, there could be a new balance of REOs and demand for them. Stay tuned for further news by Guy.

  36. MikeZ

    This could be the bottom!

  37. joey

    yea right! I was going to buy another rental property later this year. Now it looks like I might have to wait until next year since there is NOTHING out there that fits my criteria at the moment. I have ab284 to thank for that!

  38. Ed

    lots of inventory out there. i like stead

  39. SerialBottomCallers

    How could somebody, especially a REALTOR like Guy, possibly come to the conclusion that there’s a price rebound when prices are down 10% YOY? Furthermore, how many times have people called a bottom? I guess credibility means nothing.

  40. E.Edward

    MikeZ says:

    “This could be the bottom!”

    Really? hows that? and what exactly are you basing that comment on?

  41. booch221

    @ Move to Reno:

    It doesn’t matter what the national economy is doing, it matters what the Reno economy is doing. Location. Location. Location.

    Is the population increasing or decreasing?
    Are incomes rising or falling?
    What’s the unemployment rate?

  42. Move to Reno

    @ booch221

    The national economy definitely effects the local Reno economy but probably the biggest outside force on the direction of Reno’s housing market is the state of California’s economy.

    Even if Reno’s population remains stable for the next 10 years, that population will be moving. Folks moving out and folks moving in. Definitely the folks who have been renting or living with relatives will consider buying a house as well as people who want to move up.

    Unemployment is trending down, very slowly. While I suppose income growth is flat or slightly dropping, home mortgages and housing prices have dropped big time. Affordability is very high right now.

  44. Matthew

    Move to Reno,

    It issue with our housing problem is that we are “repairing” it with hair of the dog.
    Nevada (and most other states) have a tremendous amount of people relying on government assistance for their income. The participation rate is down, snap enrollment is up and part-time employment is up.
    If a median is going to increase it will be because investors are competing for the rental inventory or because this country has *again* artificially lowered lending requirements. The fact of the matter is that it’s a bit of both right now.
    With the “solutions” being pushed by our legislators like AB284 to obstruct legitimate foreclosures and and increase in cap gains rates you can expect the investor volume to recede a bit as their ROR will stall.
    That leaves the other outcome: increasing artificial federal lending subsidies again…. and as long as we’re going to blame the bubble on “evil greedy bankers” that seems like a great idea, right?

  45. MikeZ

    How could somebody, especially a REALTOR like Guy, possibly come to the conclusion that there’s a price rebound when prices are down 10% YOY?

    If you’re waiting for a full year of appreciation first, then when you finally recognize it, you’ll already be one year late.

  47. Move to Reno

    Matthew,

    Being a long time reader of this blog, I think that I have a pretty good idea what caused the housing bubble. Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. Right now housing is selling for below replacement value and affordability is high. Plus supply has been pinched. So the way I see it is that those folks with a steady job who want to buy first time or to move up are going to provide a bottom for the current market, at least until the NOD pipeline starts flowing again. Who knows what will happen then since things change.

  48. Steve Watts

    Move to Reno, Reno-Sparks unemployment went up in Ren-Sparks for January: 13%. Carson City up to 13.5%.

  49. Move to Reno

    Clearly, the unemployed are not going to be buying any houses anytime soon. However, the 87% that are employed are viable candidates. I don’t expect the housing market to re-inflate but to bounce along the bottom for some time. Probably a window of opportunity for equity sellers to take a loss or break even and move on before the NOD pipeline starts up again.

    Be interesting to know what percentage of buyers are from out of state.

  50. booch221

    Not all the 87% that are employed are viable. Some of them took BIG pay cuts when they reentered the work force. Some have a huge backlog of bills to pay, damaged credit, and may not qualify for the stricter lending standards of today.

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