The Great San Francisco Exodus

Have you heard of the 2020 San Francisco Exodus?

Here are some recent news pieces related to the phenomenon:

• from SFGate: The 2020 San Francisco exodus is real, and historic, report shows
• from GeekWire: Zillow report fuels talk of ‘mass exodus’ in San Francisco, but other markets not seeing urban flight
• from the Reno Gazette-Journal: Truck rentals show flood of Californians to Reno
• from the Financial Times: Leaving San Francisco: Will COVID-19 spark an exodus?
• from the Wall Street Journal: Lake Tahoe, Vail Aren’t Just for Vacation Anymore as Homebound Families Move In

What impacts are being observed from the San Francisco Exodus?

From the Zillow report referenced in the first two pieces,

In San Francisco, list prices have fallen 4.9% year over year and inventory has risen 96% with a flood of new listings.

Contrast those numbers to Reno-Sparks’ — where list prices have risen 6.2% year-over-year and inventory has fallen 57% [based off of July 2020 year-over-year data].

The RGJ piece reports on the imbalance in U-Haul truck rental traffic to and from Reno, and the resulting discrepancies on truck rental rates. See the table below…

Longtime readers of this blog know that I post an annual deep-dive analysis of inbound migration data to Washoe County and Nevada. See:

• A closer look at Nevada’s and Washoe County’s inflow population migration [January 31, 2020]
• A closer look at Nevada’s and Washoe County’s population migration [December 28, 2018]

In January’s blog post (above) I reported,

More than 50,000 Californians moved to Nevada from July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019, according the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 2018 – 2019 State-to-State Migration Flows. This number is a 6.7 percent increase over the 47,513 Californias that moved to Nevada the previous year.

It will be interesting to see how the consequences of the pandemic impact those migration numbers for 2020.

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013-2017 5-Year American Community Survey

Will the San Francisco metro area unseat the Las Vegas metro area as the #1 metro contributing the most new residents to Reno, NV this year?

I would love to read your thoughts in the comments below.