One big unknown is how many people are going to list their house come this spring and summer. My guess is that there is going to be a large spike (probably double of what is on the MLS right now) in inventory somewhere around May/June of 2007, which will force sellers to drop prices or keep their houses for another year.
When most of the large inventory is still sitting around unsold after the summer I would bet prices drop lower than today.
Grand Wazoo
Lennar Sees Tough Going Ahead
Home Builder’s CEO Says
Market Hasn’t Hit Bottom;
Loss Is Expected in Quarter
By JANET MORRISSEY
January 3, 2007; Page A8
Lennar Corp. Chief Executive Stuart Miller said he sees no signs the home-building market has hit bottom, signaling the industry could continue to face pressure on its financial results.
The Miami company also said it expects to report a fiscal fourth-quarter loss amid land-related write-downs of between $400 million and $500 million. “Market conditions continued to weaken throughout the fourth quarter, and we have not yet seen tangible evidence of a market recovery,” Mr. Miller said.
Lennar said it slashed its exposure in California, where market conditions have been deteriorating. The company, along with partner LNR Property Corp., agreed to sell a 62% stake in their LandSource joint venture, whose primary investment, Newhall Land and Farming, owns 15,000 acres in the Santa Clarita Valley.
Lennar and LNR, a holding of Cerberus Capital Management LP, each will receive $660 million for the stake from MW Housing, which is co-managed by real-estate investment-management firm MacFarlane Partners and includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System. Lennar will continue to get management fees and retain a 19% stake in the partnership.
“It sends a signal that they don’t want to have their capital at risk in Southern California for the next few years,” said Raymond James Financial Inc. analyst Rick Murray. He sees the sale as a sign the company doesn’t believe a rebound in California will happen in the near future.
The builder’s orders fell 6% in the quarter ended Nov. 30, which is better than many of its rivals, which have been experiencing declines of 20% to 40%. The decline reflects price slashing and incentives.
Lennar has acknowledged from the start of the housing slowdown that it has resorted to cutting prices and other incentives to push sales. The price discounting and incentives took a toll on the company’s gross profit margins, which were “materially lower” in the quarter, he said.
Lennar, which will release earnings results Jan. 17, expects to report a loss in the quarter of between 88 cents and $1.28 a share.
Prime
One big unknown is how many people are going to list their house come this spring and summer. My guess is that there is going to be a large spike (probably double of what is on the MLS right now) in inventory somewhere around May/June of 2007, which will force sellers to drop prices or keep their houses for another year.
When most of the large inventory is still sitting around unsold after the summer I would bet prices drop lower than today.
Grand Wazoo
Lennar Sees Tough Going Ahead
Home Builder’s CEO Says
Market Hasn’t Hit Bottom;
Loss Is Expected in Quarter
By JANET MORRISSEY
January 3, 2007; Page A8
Lennar Corp. Chief Executive Stuart Miller said he sees no signs the home-building market has hit bottom, signaling the industry could continue to face pressure on its financial results.
The Miami company also said it expects to report a fiscal fourth-quarter loss amid land-related write-downs of between $400 million and $500 million. “Market conditions continued to weaken throughout the fourth quarter, and we have not yet seen tangible evidence of a market recovery,” Mr. Miller said.
Lennar said it slashed its exposure in California, where market conditions have been deteriorating. The company, along with partner LNR Property Corp., agreed to sell a 62% stake in their LandSource joint venture, whose primary investment, Newhall Land and Farming, owns 15,000 acres in the Santa Clarita Valley.
Lennar and LNR, a holding of Cerberus Capital Management LP, each will receive $660 million for the stake from MW Housing, which is co-managed by real-estate investment-management firm MacFarlane Partners and includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System. Lennar will continue to get management fees and retain a 19% stake in the partnership.
“It sends a signal that they don’t want to have their capital at risk in Southern California for the next few years,” said Raymond James Financial Inc. analyst Rick Murray. He sees the sale as a sign the company doesn’t believe a rebound in California will happen in the near future.
The builder’s orders fell 6% in the quarter ended Nov. 30, which is better than many of its rivals, which have been experiencing declines of 20% to 40%. The decline reflects price slashing and incentives.
Lennar has acknowledged from the start of the housing slowdown that it has resorted to cutting prices and other incentives to push sales. The price discounting and incentives took a toll on the company’s gross profit margins, which were “materially lower” in the quarter, he said.
Lennar, which will release earnings results Jan. 17, expects to report a loss in the quarter of between 88 cents and $1.28 a share.
Write to Janet Morrissey at janet.morrissey@dowjones.com